Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures fell $0.575 to $70.375, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw a pause today after hitting a two-week high on Monday. The bulls still have some momentum to begin to suggest a market bottom may be in place. However, they need to show fresh power soon. Cash hog market prices continue to trend down. The latest CME lean hog index is down $0.57 at $79.63. Wednesday’s projected CME index price is down $0.41 at $79.22. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $75.75. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $1.17 at $87.18, led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was 162.06 loads.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures still see the technical posture as overall bearish. However, more price gains this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $74.375, which is the top of a downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $67.95. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $71.20 and then at $71.625. First support is seen at $69.00 and then at $68.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You are now hand to mouth for corn-for-feed and soymeal for feed needs.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle rose $4.125 to $224.10, near the daily high and hit a three-week high. November feeder cattle gained $8.15 to $338.275, near the session high and hit a 2.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw solid technical buying featured today amid near-term price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. Supply and demand fundamentals are still overall bullish for cattle and beef markets. Boxed beef prices so far this week have posted good gains.
USDA today reported no cash cattle trading yet this week. The agency Monday said the average cash cattle trading price last week came in at $219.80, down 87 cents from the week prior average of $220.67. The noon report today showed solid gains in boxed beef prices, with Choice grade up $4.20 at $382.46 and Select grade up $2.05 at $360.62. Movement at midday was light at 49 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $21.84.
Technical analysis: December live cattle and November feeders are seeing prices trending up on their daily charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at the August high of $229.425. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $214.625. First resistance is seen at the September high of $225.50 and then at$227.00. First support is seen at $220.00 and then at last week’s low of $218.75.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $350.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $320.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $339.00 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at $334.00 and then at $330.00.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are now hand to mouth for corn-for-feed and soymeal for feed needs.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.