Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures rose $1.475 to $97.60, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. Solid gains in the cattle futures markets today also spilled over into some better buying interest in hog futures. Buying interest was limited as the near-term technical posture for June hogs remains firmly bearish. Prices are still in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 18 cents at $90.70. Thursday’s projected cash index price is down 12 cents at $90.58. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $94.25. The noon report today showed pork cutout value steady at $98.85. Movement at midday was solid at 242.51 loads.
Technical analysis: June lean hog futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November 2025 low of $93.10. First resistance is seen at $98.225 and then at $99.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $96.20 and then at last week’s low of $94.775.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal and corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through May. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle rose $3.20 to $251.425, nearer the daily high. August feeder cattle rallied $5.175 to $354.625, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets posted solid rebounds today on short covering and perceived bargain hunting, led by feeders. Key for the bulls will be to show continued strength, or at least stability in the coming sessions. It could well be that feeder futures will lead live cattle in the near term.
USDA at midday today reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week, averaging $256.00. The agency reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $258.77, down $4.08 from the week prior’s record high of $262.85. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values solidly higher. Choice-grade was up $4.02 at $396.92, while Select-grade gained $5.27 to $395.57. Movement at midday was 67 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $1.35.
Technical analysis: Live cattle futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at the contract high of $256.625. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the late-April low of $240.925. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $252.275 and then at $255.00. First support is seen at $249.00 and then at last week’s low of $247.475.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at last week’s high of $366.125. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $344.275. First resistance is seen at $356.525 and then at $358.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $350.225 and then at this week’s low of $347.40.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed and soymeal needs through May in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn and soymeal for feed needs covered in the cash market through May. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.