Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures fell $1.50 to $98.15, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market has turned choppy this week, with a corrective pullback featured today after prices hit a five-week high Wednesday. Bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 17,700 MT for 2026 were down 53 percent from the previous week and down 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.
The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $0.74 at $98.90, once again led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was 106.48 loads. The latest CME lean hog index is up 32 cents to $91.98. Friday’s projected CME index price is up 37 cents at $92.35. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $96.94.
Technical analysis: August lean hog futures see a price uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $95.425. First resistance is seen at $100.00 and then at $101.00. First support is seen at $97.00 and then at this week’s low of $96.325.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle lost $2.375 to $235.25, near the daily low and closed at a 3.5-month low close. August feeder cattle fell $5.90 to $356.15, near the daily low and closed at a four-week-low close.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw renewed technical selling pressure today as the near-term charts favor the bears. Prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts. Very light cash cattle trading reported by USDA at sharply lower levels than last week also pressured futures markets.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 14,000 MT for 2026 during the week ended July 2.
Livestock stress is likely into the weekend due to hotter temperatures in the Northern Plains states.
USDA at midday today reported very light cash cattle trading taking place at $248.00. The agency on Monday said cash cattle trading last week averaged $255.12, which is down $4.22 from the week prior’s average price. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $1.38 at $379.82 and Select grade up $1.10 at $364.19. Movement at midday was light at 31 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $15.63.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures markets see price downtrends in place on their daily bar charts, which suggests the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to lower. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $245.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $233.975. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $238.475 and then at this week’s high of $240.55. First support is seen at $233.975 and then at $230.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $370.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $364.10 and then at $365.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $353.70 and then at $350.00.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.