Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures rose $0.85 to $99.00, nearer the daily high and for the week up 25 cents.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures market posted a decent rebound today after price pressure on Thursday. Bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The USDA noon pork showed cutout value was up as solid $3.02 at $101.83, led by gains in cuts across the board. Movement at midday was decent at 206.84 loads. The latest CME lean hog index is up 37 cents to $92.35. Monday’s projected CME index price is up 34 cents at $92.69. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $96.92.
30-day outlook: Wholesale and cash hog fundamentals have turned supportive in tandem, led by BLT-season strength in bellies. Sustained followthrough will be needed for an extended rally. Persistent demand for ribs, bellies, and hams, coupled with seasonally declining slaughter in the coming weeks, would continue to provide near-term price support for cash and futures.
90-day outlook: Cattle futures markets have been trending lower for nearly three weeks and if such continues it could begin to limit buying interest in lean hog futures. Rising hog slaughter levels in the fall may also limit the upside in cash and futures the next several weeks.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle futures fell $0.05 to $235.20, nearer the daily high after hitting a 3.5-month low early on. For the week prices were down $3.90. August feeder cattle futures lost $1.55 to $354.60, near mid-range and for the week down $5.775.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures markets saw a pause amid mild technical selling pressure today, with technically bearish weekly low closes setting the stage for follow-through chart-based price pressure early next week. Lower cash trade so far this week also pressured futures prices.
Cash cattle trading turned active as of midday today, with USDA reporting steers averaging $248.00 and heifers $247.96. That is well down from last week’s USDA-reported cash cattle trading average of $255.12. The noon report today showed higher boxed beef prices, with Choice grade up $3.09 at $383.90 and Select grade up $6.16 at $369.65. Movement at midday was 61 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $14.25.
30-day outlook: Ongoing pressure from the Trump administration to reduce retail beef prices has weighed on futures market sentiment, while rising geopolitical uncertainties have shifted investor focus toward energy markets, which has likely at least somewhat dented consumer confidence. On the supply side, the sharp decline in cash trade recently has further limited buyer interest in futures, despite historically tight fed cattle supplies. However, still-solid beef demand could limit further downside in futures cash cattle markets stabilize in the coming weeks. The persistent New World screwworm threat and recent heat have offered little support.
90-day outlook: Drover’s reported this week that despite drought, labor unrest and health threats at the border, cattle prices are holding in record territory. In his Q3 2026 outlook entitled, “Drought: Likely Dashing Hopes for Expansion,” Terrain Senior Animal Protein Analyst Dave Weaber forecasts fed cattle averaging $252–$258 per cwt in Q3 and Oklahoma City 450‑lb. steer calves climbing from about $500 to $555 cwt. The forecasts remain record high because of still-strong beef demand and historically short supplies,” Weaber said, even as packer margins remain in the red at –$200 to –$300 per head and slaughter runs 2% to 4% below last year.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.