Price action: December lean hog futures fell $1.425 to $65.725, near the daily low and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw renewed technical selling today as near-term charts remain firmly bearish. A price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. Cash hog market and CME cash index prices continue to trend lower, too.
The latest CME lean hog index is down $0.38 at $73.02. Thursday’s projected CME index price is down $0.20 at $72.82. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $67.88. The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was down $1.42 at $77.11, led by losses in picnics. Movement at midday was 173.41 loads.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures see the technical posture as overall bearish amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $70.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $62.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $67.70 and then at last week’s high of $69.00. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $65.70 and then at $65.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed needs covered through the end of December, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle rose $0.95 to $231.125, near mid-range and hit another three-month high. November feeder cattle rose $2.525 to $348.825, near mid-range and also hit another three-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw more technical buying today amid price uptrends firmly in place up on the daily charts. Solidly higher cash cattle trading last week also has boosted the futures bulls early this week. Longer-term supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish for the cattle and beef markets, too.
USDA today said in an X post that it plans to resume cattle imports from Mexico at ports in Columbus, New Mexico, on Oct. 26 if conditions for safe trade are in place, and Nogales, Arizona, on Nov. 30, if conditions for safe trade are in place. Horse imports at Santa Teresa, New Mexico, are planned to resume on Oct. 26, USDA said.
USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $224.19, up $4.05 from the week-prior average. So far this week, the agency has reported no cash cattle trading activity. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade up $0.28 at $373.58 and Select grade down $6.04 at $355.50. Movement at midday was 59 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $18.08.
Cattle futures traders are looking ahead to Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed and cold storage reports. The COF report’s release may push most of the cash cattle trade this week into Friday afternoon.
Technical analysis: December live cattle and November feeders bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage and are seeing prices trending up on their daily charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at $240.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $225.00. First resistance is seen at $233.00 and then at $235.00. First support is seen at $230.00 and then at this week’s low of $227.225.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $360.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $335.00. First resistance is seen at $351.00 and then at $353.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $345.85 and then at Tuesday’s low of $342.575.
What to do: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.