Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures fell $1.30 to $81.725, nearer the session low and hit a four-week-low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw more technical selling from the speculators featured today as prices have seen a downside breakout from a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. Sharp losses in cattle futures today also spilled over into selling in hog futures.
The cash hog market is still trending down, to keep the bears in control. The latest CME lean hog index down 22 cents to $96.95. Friday’s projected CME index price is down 29 cents at $96.66. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $99.37. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was down $1.56 at $99.49, led by losses in picnics and hams. Movement at midday was 133.42 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 27,300 MT for 2026 during the week ended July 30. Net sales were down 23% from the previous week but up 6% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: October lean hog futures have seen a downside price breakout from al bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $86.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $79.775. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $83.50 and then at this week’s high of $84.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $81.65 and then at $80.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $4.55 to $224.925, nearer the daily low. September feeder cattle lost $6.80 to $341.575, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The live cattle futures market today saw heavy profit-taking pressure today following recent gains. No chart damage was inflicted today but significant follow-through selling on Friday would likely negate the near-term price uptrends in both markets. World Weather Inc. today said livestock heat stress will prevail in the Plains states during much of the next two weeks, making weight gains a challenge.
USDA at midday today reported more active cash cattle trading at higher money so far this week, with steers averaging $235.19 and heifers $234.91. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trade last week averaged $233.06, which compares to an average of $230.48 fetched the week prior. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $5.10 at $362.87 and Select grade up $0.97 at $349.03. Movement at midday was decent at 81 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $13.84.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales totaled 19,800 MT for 2026, up 31% from the previous week and 71% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: October live cattle and September feeder cattle futures still see fledgling price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts but they need to show fresh power soon to keep them alive. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $235.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $216.95. First resistance is seen at $228.00 and then at this week’s high of $230.325. First support is seen at today’s low of $224.00 and then at $223.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at $355.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the July low of $330.70. First resistance is seen at $345.00 and then at this week’s high of $349.85. First support is seen at this week’s low of $339.90 and then at $337.00.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.