Note: Markets and government offices will be closed Friday for the Juneteenth federal holiday. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer updates.
Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures rose $0.225 to $96.725, near the daily high and for the week up $0.325.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures market had a choppy, holiday-shortened trading week as the bulls worked to right the ship but without much success. Prices remain trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales totaled 16,100 MT for 2026 during the week ended June 11. That was a marketing year low. Net sales were down 31% from the previous week and 50% from the four-week average.
The USDA noon pork cutout was reported down $1.30 at $93.47, led by losses in bellies. Movement at midday was decent at 192.15 loads. The latest CME lean hog index is up 50 cents to $92.43. Monday’s projected CME index price is up 1 cent at $92.44. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $96.64.
30-day outlook: Plentiful pork supplies continue to limit buyer interest in lean hog futures, as slaughter levels continue to outpace those of one year ago. Unlike cattle, hogs are in a gradual supply growth and productivity-driven expansion, keeping futures under pressure.
90-day outlook: Demand for pork could improve if consumers start to become sensitive to higher-priced beef. Moreover, U.S. pork exports are projected to increase in 2026, though oversupply issues in China may keep a lid on U.S. prices despite the seasonal pullback in supplies as slaughter wanes over the coming months.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle futures fell $2.225 to $246.625, nearer the daily low and for the week up $5.45. August feeder cattle futures fell $0.825 to $366.60, near mid-range, hit a five-week high and for the week up $9.175.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures markets bulls had a very good week, as focus was on the price-bullish supply ramifications from New World screwworm on the U.S. cattle industry. The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is still reporting 12 total New World screwworm detected cases, in Texas and New Mexico. The International Atomic Energy Agency, a key global nuclear lab institution, is helping to eradicate NWS, saying more sterile flies and better coordination with southern neighbors is needed to prevent the deadly parasite from spreading across North America.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales totaled 10,400 MT for 2026 during the week ended June 11. Net sales were down 45% from the previous week and 8% from the four-week average.
Cash cattle trading is still very light as of midday today, with USDA earlier this week reporting very light trading at $254.00.
That compares to last week’s USDA-reported cash cattle trading average of $256.08. The noon report today showed lower boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $1.23 at $393.27 and Select grade down $2.28 at $374.98. Movement at midday was 42 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $18.29.
Futures trading early next week will likely price in this afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report, which is expected to lean overall price-bullish.
30-day outlook: The closure of another JBS owned packing facility in Souderton, Pennsylvania underscores snug U.S. cattle supplies. Speculative traders have returned to cattle futures in full force as supplies are likely to remain hindered by the lingering closure of the U.S.-Mexico border. Also, there is hesitance around domestic herd rebuilding as prices remain elevated and adverse pasture conditions and weather add layers of uncertainty.
90-day outlook: The major U.S. stock indexes are not far below their recent record highs. Also, gasoline prices at the pump have dropped below $4.00 a gallon, on average. These are cattle-market-bullish elements that suggest U.S. consumer confidence will be upbeat in the coming months, meaning better demand for beef at the meat counter.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.