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Hogs
Price action: February lean hog futures fell 12 1/2 cents to $88.35, nearer the session low and for the week up 7 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures market paused today, with some mild profit taking featured from the shorter-term futures traders, after prices earlier this week hit a 3.5-month high. Firmly bullish technicals and increases in the cash hog and CME lean hog index prices recently limited selling interest today. Hog futures’ premium to the CME lean hog index remains a positive element for the futures market, suggesting hog traders expect the cash market to continue to improve.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. pork export sales of 33,200 MT for 2026, primarily to Mexico, South Korea and Japan.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 67 cents to $83.07. Monday’s projected cash index price is up another 55 cents to $83.62. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $60.71. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $1.46 to $96.08. Movement at midday was 162.71 loads.
30-day outlook: Still historically elevated beef prices at the meat counter are likely to continue to see better substitution demand for pork. Such will likely continue to support the cash hog and lean hog futures markets by at least keeping a floor under prices, if not sustaining the present price uptrends in both markets.
90-day outlook: Hog slaughter levels continue above year-ago totals, reflecting solid consumer demand. Given elevated supplies, grocers have likely been ramping up ham purchases ahead of the Easter holiday, which falls early this year. The current landscape leans in favor of a run toward the late-September high.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through February. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: February live cattle futures rose $2.525 to $234.90, nearer the daily high. For the week, February live cattle rose $2.75. March feeder cattle futures gained 90 cents to $360.175, nearer the daily high. For the week, January feeders were up $3.725.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in February live cattle and March feeders sets the table for some follow-through chart-based buying early next week. It appears cattle traders were expecting this afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report to lean price-friendly. A Reuters survey of analysts expected the report to show cattle on feed as of Jan. 1 at 96.8% of the level seen one year ago at the same time. Placements in December were seen at 93.5% of a year ago. Marketings in December were expected by analysts to be at 101.5% of one year ago at the same time.
Still-very-quiet cash cattle trading late this week saw USDA today reporting steers averaging $231.93 and heifers averaging $232.23. Those numbers compare to last week’s average cash cattle trade reported by USDA at $232.50. The noon report today showed boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice-grade up $1.25 to $368.70, while Select-grade fell 43 cents to $361.30. Movement at midday was decent at 80 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $7.40.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 15,400 MT for 2026, primarily to Hong Kong, Japan and Mexico.
30-day outlook: Retailers anticipate good consumer demand for beef at the meat counter in the coming months, despite still historically high retail beef prices. Consumer confidence remains generally upbeat as recent U.S. economic data does not signal any serious trouble, while the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates this year.
90-day outlook: The New World Screwworm threat is again in focus and now leans bearish, fundamentally, due to the uncertainty of the matter and its potential impact on consumer psychology. Meantime, cattle placements improved in December, though a competitively priced feeder market is likely to weigh on placements numbers as the year progresses. Some dryness has also crept back into the southern Plains, which will also affect the rebuilding of the U.S. herd.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through February in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through February as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.