Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures rose $1.225 to $59.825, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw good short covering and perceived bargain buying today after prices Wednesday careened to a fresh contract low. This week’s steep price downside move is a “washout” that suggests, from a time perspective, a market bottom is in place in December futures. The hog futures bulls still have some heavy lifting to do in the near-term as cash hog prices and the CME cash index continued to slide.
The latest CME lean hog index is down $1.00 to $68.30. Friday’s projected CME index price is down $1.00 at $67.30. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $59.23. The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was down $1.39 at $71.06, led by declines in bellies. Movement at midday was 153.50 loads.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales totaled 42,300 MT for 2026, up 14% from the previous week and 24% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures see the technical posture as firmly bearish amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. However, this week’s price washout to the downside suggests a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $57.50. First resistance is seen at $61.00 and then at $62.00. First support is seen at $59.00 and then at $58.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed needs covered through the end of December, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle fell $1.025 to $226.30, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week low early on. November feeder cattle lost $0.275 to $346.475, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw modest profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation. Solidly lower cash cattle trading so far this week and lower boxed beef prices at midday today are also bearish for futures. The near-term technical postures for live and feeder cattle futures has also mildly deteriorated.
USDA at midday today reported active cash cattle trading with steers averaging $224.13 and heifers $224.06. The agency Monday said cash cattle trading last week averaged $227.06. The noon report today showed lower boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $1.50 at $367.50 and Select grade down $3.70 at $351.55. Movement at midday was 54 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $15.95.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales of 11,000 MT during the week ended Oct. 22, down 41% from the previous week and down 33% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: December live cattle and November feeders bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit late this week. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at the October high of $232.90. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $220.00. First resistance is seen at $2.28 and then at $230.00. First support is seen at $225.00 and then at $224.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $355.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $335.00. First resistance is seen at $348.00 and then at this week’s high of $351.30. First support is seen at $344.00 and then at $342.00.
What to do: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.