Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures fell $0.05 to $100.275, near mid-range and hit a six-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw mild follow-through technical buying from the speculators in early trading, as a price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. Some mild profit-taking from specs did temper gains. Bullish futures traders are encouraged by recently rising cash hog prices. The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $2.38 at $103.84, led by gains in picnics and bellies. Movement at midday was 138.03 loads. The latest CME lean hog index is up 73 cents to $94.60. Friday’s projected CME index price is up 50 cents at $95.10. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today was $99.62.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales totaled Net sales of 21,600 MT for 2026 during the week ended July 9, which were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technical analysis: August lean hog futures see a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close August futures prices above solid chart resistance at $104.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $96.325. First resistance is seen at $101.00 and then at $102.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $98.35 and then at $97.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell $3.05 to $227.075, nearer the daily low and hit a four-month low. August feeder cattle lost $3.35 to $346.60, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw heavy technical selling pressure amid price downtrends firmly in place on the daily bar charts for both markets. Slumping cash cattle prices recently are also negative for futures. In the Northern Plains, persistently excessive heat has been severely stressing livestock. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 39 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. There are 18 active cases, all still in Texas.
USDA at midday today reported more active cash cattle trading taking place, with steers fetching $239.51 and heifers $238.66. The agency on Monday reported last week’s cash cattle trading averaged $248.01, down $7.11. from the week prior. The noon report today showed lower boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $1.94 at $369.34 and Select grade down $1.22 at $357.96. Movement at midday was 58 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $11.38.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales totaled 8,000 MT for 2026 during the week ended July 9, which were down 43 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures markets see firm price downtrends in place on their daily bar charts, which suggests still more overall downside price pressure in the near term. However, both live and feeder cattle futures prices are short-term oversold and due for corrective upside bounces soon. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $235.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $222.275. First resistance is seen at $228.00 and then at today’s high of $230.50. First support is seen at $226.00 and then at $225.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $355.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of $335.95. First resistance is seen at $350.00 and then at $352.50. First support is seen at $343.00 and then at $340.00.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.