Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures fell $1.55 to $104.675, near the daily low and hit a five-week low. For the week, August hogs lost $1.425.
5-day outlook: The technically bearish weekly low close Friday in August hogs sets the table for follow-through technical selling pressure from the speculators early next week, amid the deteriorating near-term technical posture for hog futures. The latest CME lean hog index is up 10 cents to $107.14 as of July 9, ending a seven-day losing streak that saw prices fall $4.98. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $111.48. The noon report today showed pork cutout value fell $1.68 to $112.47. Movement at midday was decent at 161.52 loads.
30-day outlook: Pork packer margins have just recently dipped into the red, suggesting a continued retreat from seasonal highs in both cash and product markets will likely continue in the coming weeks as hog/pork supplies start to rise amid increased slaughter. However, continued cattle market price strength and hog futures’ discounts to cash in summer-month futures may keep a floor under pork prices in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. pork export sales of 24,300 MT for the 2025 marketing year, down 11% from the previous week and down 17% from the four-week average. While China led purchases for the week at 8,800 MT, U.S. pork exports abroad will likely have to improve in the coming weeks and months to keep cash hog and lean hog futures prices at their still-elevated levels. That chore may be difficult as the Trump administration this week ratcheted up its tariff rhetoric against many of its trading partners.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle futures rose $2.975 to $222.20 and hit a contract/record high. For the week, August live cattle gained $8.15. August feeder cattle futures closed up $4.05 at $325.325, which is also a contract/record high. On the week, August feeders rose $15.825.
5-day outlook: The record-setting bull-market runs in the cattle futures markets continue to roll on. Technical buying from the speculators was featured today, which is likely to result in some follow-through buying interest from the speculators early next week. Cash and beef market fundamentals remain strong. Cash cattle trading has turned more active late this week, with USDA reporting steers fetching an average price of $235.14 and heifers averaging $232.37. Last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $229.43. Given the steep discount live cattle futures hold to the cash cattle market, traders continue to view price breaks as a buying opportunity. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice down $1.11 to $383.55, while Select rose $1.52 to $372.38. Movement at midday was decent at 82 loads. Improved beef packer cutting margins suggest cash cattle trade will at least remain at steady prices,
30-day outlook: While the cattle markets remain fully bullish, futures traders are not so bullish as to push futures prices to on par with cash cattle prices. There is some uncertainty on the demand front. Wholesale boxed beef prices have reached their second-highest levels ever and retail beef prices are at record highs. Such may slow consumer demand for beef during what is historically a weaker period for beef during the hotter summer months. Cattle slaughter levels continue lighter but should increase in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: The other worrisome element for the continuation of the bull runs in cattle markets is consumer confidence, as gauged by the U.S. stock market. While the major U.S. stock indexes this week hit record highs, traders and investors late this week became a little more jittery after more hawkish rhetoric coming from the White House regarding trade tariffs. If trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries continue to escalate in the coming weeks or few months, the stock market likely has no place to go but down. That would seriously dent consumer confidence and in turn likely crimp demand for beef at the meat counter. Remember, too, that the months of September and October have been historically unkind to stock market bulls.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.