Hogs
Price action: July lean hog futures settled a nickel higher at $108.90, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Hog futures traded in a relatively tight range today as cash fundamentals continue to grind higher, supporting the ongoing rally in the futures market. July lean hogs are still overbought on the daily bar chart, which could breed some consolidation in the next few days. June futures will go off the board tomorrow at noon and will cash settle against the CME lean hog index early next week. The index is up another 94 cents to $100.91 as of June 10. The preliminary calculation puts the index up another 84 cents to $101.75 tomorrow, further extending the seasonal rally. June futures trading well above the index points to traders anticipation that the ongoing robust gains will continue over the next few days. Strength in cutout continues to prove impressive. Cutout rose another $2.01 to $115.09 this morning as all cuts except picnics posted gains. Bellies continue to lead cutout higher amid ongoing grocer purchases for summer BLT features.
Technical analysis: July lean hog futures traded within yesterday’s range today, chopping on either side of unchanged. Bulls continue to own full control of the technical advantage and are looking to overcome resistance at yesterday’s contract high of $109.625. Additional resistance stands at the psychological $110.00 mark. Support comes in at $108.225 on continued consolidation, while additional selling has bears looking to topple 10-day moving average support at $106.65.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed and soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through July.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell $1.075 to $216.95, nearer the session low. June live cattle rose 37 1/2 cents to $228.20 and set another record high today. August feeder cattle rose 17 1/2 cents to $311.25, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets took a normal pause today after prices pushed to contract/record highs earlier this week. Some keener risk aversion in the general marketplace may have limited buying interest in cattle futures, as U.S.-Iran tensions are running higher. However, tame U.S. inflation data this week should keep consumer confidence higher, which is a positive for the cattle and beef markets. Today’s price pause is actually bullish and suggests still more upside for cattle futures in the near term.
Cash and beef market fundamentals remain rock-solid. Cash cattle trade has been fairly light so far this week, with USDA reporting steers averaging $239.51 so far. That compares to last week’s final cash cattle trading average of $236.62, which is a record high. The noon report today showed still-surging boxed beef values, with Choice-grade up another $2.50 to $377.26, while Select rose $2,98 to $363.73. Movement at midday was 61 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $13.53.
Weekly U.S. beef export sales totaled 15,300 MT for 2025, up 71% from the previous week and 21% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A bull flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $225.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $210.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $220.05 and then at $221.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $216.00 and then at $215.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $318.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $314.20 and then at $316.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $308.275 and then at $306.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed and soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through July.