Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures fell $0.30 to $99.275, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market paused today after two sessions of good gains. While near-term charts remain bearish, more gains in lean hog futures to end the trading week would begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 60 cents at $92.25. Friday projected cash index price is up another 26 cents at $92.51. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $94.48. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $2.84 at $101.35, led by gains in picnics and bellies. Movement at midday was 115.02 loads.
USDA reported U.S. weekly pork export sales of 38,900 MT for 2026 during the week ended May 28, up 18% from the previous week and 31% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: August lean hog futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $102.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $93.675. First resistance is seen at $100.00 and then at $101.025. First support is seen at today’s low of $97.675 and then at this week’s low of $96.175.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You are now hand to mouth for feed needs.Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $3.675 to $241.525, nearer the daily high after hitting a nine-week low early on today. August feeder cattle rallied $10.75 to $353.375, nearer the daily high after hitting a 5.5-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today saw big and technically bullish “outside days” up on their daily bar charts. Cattle traders on this day decided to “buy the fact” on news of a case of New World screwworm detected in Texas. On Wednesday cattle traders “sold the rumor” of the parasite spreading north. The NWS situation is still fluid and cattle futures markets may remain volatile. The bullish aspect of the situation is reduced cattle supplies coming from Mexico and now possibly from the far southern U.S. The potentially cattle-price-bearish aspect of NWS is possible negative U.S. consumer psychology toward beef (less demand) that could result from the flesh-eating parasite and the general news media hyping the situation.
USDA at midday today reported active cash cattle trading, with steers averaging $256.02 and heifers $255.75. Last week’s average cash trading price was $256.86--down $3.63 from the prior week’s average. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values lower. Choice-grade was down $1.97 at $393.89, while Select-grade lost $1.95 to $382.48. Movement at midday was decent at 76 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $11.41.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales of 4,900 MT for 2026 during the week ended May 28, down 62% from the previous week and 48% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls still see price downtrends in place on their daily bar charts despite today’s bullish outside days up on the daily charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $251.65. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at today’s low of $233.975. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $243.875 and then at $245.00. First support is seen at$239.00 and then at $237.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $356.525. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at today’s low of $335.95. First resistance is seen at $355.00 and then at $356.525. First support is seen at $350.00 and then at $347.50.
What to do: You are hand to mouth for feed needs. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are now hand to mouth for feed needs.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.