Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures closed steady at $96.725, near mid-range..
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market today saw mild short covering early on before giving up those mild gains late. The near-term technicals remain bearish amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. More price gains this week would likely negate the price uptrend to then suggest a market bottom is in place.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 26 cents at $92.17. Tuesday’s projected cash index price is down 67 cents $91.77. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $96.65. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $0.21 at $96.98, led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was 133.55 loads.
Technical analysis: August lean hog futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $93.675. First resistance is seen at $98.00 and then at $99.00. First support is seen at $96.00 and then at $95.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $0.725 to $247.35, near mid-range and hit a six-week high early on. August feeder cattle rose $3.825 to $370.425, near mid-range after hitting a six-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets saw fresh speculator buying in the early going, but those gains faded as the trading session progressed. Profit taking from recent gains was featured. The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 15 total New World screwworm detected cases, but all still in Texas and New Mexico, with the three new ones in Texas.
USDA last Thursday afternoon reported U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on June 1. The inventory was 2 percent above June 1, 2025. Find more details here.
USDA at midday today reported cash cattle average trade last week was not available due to submission issues. The week prior’s average trading price was $256.08. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values firmer. Choice-grade was up $1.24 at $395.61, while Select-grade rose $1.86 to $373.94. Movement at midday was light at 42 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $21.67.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures see price uptrends still in place on their daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $251.65. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $233.975. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $250.00 and then at $251.65. First support is seen at $245.00 and then at $243.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $379.45. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $373.15 and then at $375.00. First support is seen at $368.00 and then at $365.00.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.