Hogs
Price action: August lean hogs fell $1.00 to $106.225, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The choppy price action in August lean hog futures this week is a pause from the last week’s selling pressure, but also reflects the bulls are timid because of deteriorating cash hog market fundamentals. A sell off in the cattle futures markets today also limited buying interest in hog futures.
The latest CME lean hog index dropped another 29 cents to $107.04 as of July 8, but that’s the smallest daily drop since June 27. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $112.26. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $1.42 at $113.48, led by gains in bellies and hams. Movement was 131.10 loads.
USDA reported U.S. pork export sales of 24,300 MT for 2025, down 11% from the previous week and 17% from the four-week average. China led purchases for the week at 8,800 MT.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent price pause. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close August prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $113.375. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $102.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $108.15 and then at $109.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $105.50 and then at $105.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell 55 cents to $219.225, near mid-range and hit a contract/record high early on today. August feeder cattle rose 80 cents to $321.275, nearer the session low and hit a contract/record high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets bulls were out of the gates strong to start the trading session, but faded down the stretch on some routine profit-taking pressure. Overall cash and beef market fundamentals remain solid, however.
Cash cattle trading expectations have improved through the week, but packers may be reluctant to bid up as they want to keep cutting margins in the black. USDA today reported light cash cattle trade so far this week, with steers fetching an average price of $227.01 and heifers averaging $225.00. Last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $229.43. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef prices fell another $1.78 to $384.67 for Choice and were down $1.51 to $371.76 for Select. Movement at midday was 42 loads.
USDA Wednesday ordered an immediate shutdown of livestock trade through all southern U.S. border ports following the detection of a new case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Veracruz, Mexico.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales of 11,600 MT for 2025, up 1% from the previous week but down 12% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at today’s contract high of $222.50. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $212.50. First resistance is seen at $220.00 and then at $221.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $217.20 and then at $216.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at today’s contract high of $326.875. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $309.00. First resistance is seen at $320.00 and then at $321.00. First support is seen at $317.00 and then at $315.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.