Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures fell $0.275 to $69.425, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw a pause today. The near-term chart posture in hog futures remains bearish amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. The cash hog market prices have been trending down but may be stabilizing now. The latest CME lean hog index is down $0.27 at $80.94. Thursday’s projected CME index price is up a penny at $80.95. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $78.10. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was down $0.28 at $87.49, led by losses in picnics and bellies. Movement at midday was decent at 177.49 loads.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures still see the technical posture as bearish. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $74.375, which is the top of a downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $65.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $70.10 and then at last week’s high of $71.625. First support is seen at the contract low of $68.175 and then at $67.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle rose $1.90 to $222.70, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. November feeder cattle gained $3.40 to $334.30, nearer the session high and hit a nine-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw more technical buying today as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. Solid losses in the corn market today helped out the feeder cattle futures market. Overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for cattle and beef markets. USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $220.67, down $1.20 from last week’s cash trade average of $221.87. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade up $0.01 at $382.67 and Select grade down $2.41 at $362.07. Movement at midday was 70 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $20.60.
China will start collecting an additional 55% tariff on Brazil beef shipments on Oct. 1 after the South American country reached its annual quota of 1.1 MMT, the commerce ministry said earlier today.
Japan has opened its market to Argentine beef after 20 years, Argentina’s economy minister Luis Caputo said earlier today. The two countries had reached an agreement after sanitary requirements were set for beef imports to come from zones in Argentina free of foot-and-mouth disease, where vaccinations are used, according to a post on X.
Technical analysis: Bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal patterns have formed on the daily charts for December live cattle and November feeders. Both markets are also trending up on their daily charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at the August high of $229.425. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $214.625. First resistance is seen at the September high of $225.50 and then at $227.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $221.025 and then at last week’s low of $218.775.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $345.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $316.175. First resistance is seen at $337.50 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $330.625 and then at this week’s low of $326.425.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.