Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.23, near the daily high and hit a nine-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market started out under moderate pressure early in the session, on profit-taking from the shorter-term speculators, but gradually erased those losses by the close. Buying interest in corn was somewhat limited today by a “risk-off” trading day in the general marketplace that saw the U.S. stock indexes trade solidly lower.
USDA this morning reported 1.41 million MT of U.S. corn inspected for export the week ending August 28, up 68,518 MT from the previous week and near the higher end of analyst expectations of 850,000 to 1,500,000 MT.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield unchanged at 184 bu. per acre and noted a neutral bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. said temperatures in the Corn Belt will be colder to much colder than normal through Monday and frost may occur in a few far northwestern locations Thursday and Saturday and a few crops may be harmed by the cold with temperatures not likely cold enough in a large enough area to have a significant impact on total U.S. crop production.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 70% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, down 1 point from last week and 65% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Corn futures prices are trending up on the daily bar chart following last Friday’s technically bullish weekly and monthly high close in December futures. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.03 1/2. First resistance is seen today’s high of $4.23 1/4 and then at $4.25. First support is seen at $4.18 and then at today’s low of $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 13 1/2 cents to $10.41, nearer the session low and hit a two-week low. September soybean meal fell $8.10 to $275.50, near the daily low and hit a three-week low. September soybean oil rose 50 points to 51.97 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures saw profit-taking pressure today, as well as fresh short-selling as the soybean meal futures market is breaking down again. The meal market will have to recover quickly for soybeans to remain in its presently overall slightly bullish technical posture. Keener risk aversion on the general marketplace early this week, evidenced by the solid losses in the U.S. stock indexes, also weighed on the soybean and meal markets today.
This afternoon’s latest USDA crush report will be closely scrutinized by soy complex traders, and is expected to be up around 8% from last year.
USDA this morning reported 472,914 MT of U.S. soybeans inspected for export the week ending August 28, up 79,725 MT from last week and in the higher end of analyst expectations of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. soybean yield unchanged at 53 bu. per acre, with a neutral bias going forward.
Statistics Canada forecasts soybean production at 7 MMT, down 7.3% from last year’s production total, mainly due to a decrease in yields.
World Weather Inc. said the Midwest will see a wetter weather pattern than what has occurred recently and although widespread soakings of rain are not expected, “much of the region will see multiple rounds of rain that will induce limited improvements in soybean yields.” Temperatures in the region will be colder to much colder than normal through next Monday and frost may occur in a few far northwestern locations Thursday and Saturday. A few crops may be harmed by the cold, with temperatures not likely cold enough in a large enough area to have a significant impact on total U.S. crop production, said the forecaster.
Today’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 68% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, that same as last week and compares to 65% good to excellent at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.53 and then at last week’s high of $10.62 3/4. First support is seen at $10.35 and then at $10.25.
Soybean meal bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $262.50. First resistance comes in at $280.00 and then at today’s high of $284.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $275.00 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 51.14 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.63 cents and then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.14 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 6 cents to $5.28 1/4, near mid-range. December HRW wheat fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.11 1/4, near mid-range and closed at a contract low close. Spring wheat December futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.74 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling today, while also being pressured from lower soybean futures prices. A general “risk-off” day in the marketplace also prompted selling interest in the grains to start the trading week and the month of September.
USDA this morning reported 802,780 MT of U.S. wheat inspected for export the week ending August 28, down 217,474 MT from the previous week. Despite the decline, exports exceeded analyst expectations of 250,000 to 700,000 MT.
Reuters today reported the Sovecon consultancy raised Russia’s 2025-26 wheat export forecast to 43.7 million MT, slightly up from its previous forecast, while rising Russia’ wheat production to 85.4 million MT. Australia’s government is forecasting its wheat production at 33.8 MMT for the 25/26 crop year, up from June’s forecast of 30.6 MMT
World Weather Inc. said rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas recently has soil moisture “poised well for early season planting and emergence. Some greater sunshine would be great for getting farmers into the fields after recent moisture gains.” Meantime, additional bouts of frost are possible in eastern Canada’s Prairies Wednesday and Saturday this week, but it should not harm the cereal crops which should be sufficiently mature. Drying is needed in spring wheat areas of Russia’s New Lands region where rain continues to fall frequently.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop at 69% harvested as of Sunday, compared to 53% last week and 70% complete at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at the August high of $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.17 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.06 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 49 points to 66.05 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw chart-based selling featured as the near-term technical posture for December cotton has deteriorated the past week. A risk-off day in the general marketplace and solid losses in the U.S. stock indexes also weighed on cotton futures prices today.
World Weather Inc. said beneficial rain has fallen in the past week across the Texas Panhandle, central parts of west Texas and in the Blacklands. “More rain is needed in the southwestern dryland production areas of west Texas and the region may have to wait until next week for additional rain. Dry weather in south Texas and the Coastal Bend recently was good for cotton harvesting. Some areas are expected this week, but they should be brief and light enough to minimize any change in crop quality.” U.S. Delta crops “have dried out greatly,” resulting in some crop stress. Rain is needed to help the crop finish well. This week’s cooler temperatures will slow crop development rates. The southeastern states will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine as will the southwestern desert region. California crops will remain dependent upon irrigation and seasonable temperatures for the best development, said the forecaster.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have quickly gained the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 66.86 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at 65.50 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.