Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 cent to $4.23 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market paused today after posting decent gains last Friday. A sharply lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today limited selling interest in corn futures. However, a risk-off tone in the general marketplace kept the corn market bulls leery.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.484 MMT for the week ended Jan. 15, down 20,301 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.4 MMT.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian corn production estimate of 137 MMT and noted a neutral bias going forward. He also left his Argentine estimate unchanged at 56 MMT but indicated a neutral to lower bias as dry weather is becoming more of a concern for the country’s corn crop.
Mato Grosso, the largest safrinha corn-producing state in Brazil, is expected to increase 2025-26 safrinha corn acreage by 1.83% to 7.39 million hectares (18.2 million acres), according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics. The expansion is driven by increased domestic demand, especially for ethanol production.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next 8-9 days will raise some concern for corn and other crops because some of those areas are already drying down. Timely rain is advertised after this period, though confidence is not high and the situation will need to be closely monitored. Good crop weather will prevail elsewhere.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.35. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at $4.27 1/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at $4.20 and then at last week’s low of $4.17 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 4 3/4 cents to $10.53, near the daily low. March soybean meal gained $1.60 to $291.60, near mid-range. March soybean oil lost 5 points to 52.56 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market paused today, while meal futures saw some short covering. Bean oil saw mild technical buying today. The sharply lower U.S. dollar index today limited selling interest in the soybean complex. However, a risk-off trader mentality in the general marketplace kept the bulls very tepid today.
Bloomberg reports China has purchased roughly 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the last three months, clearing a closely watched trade hurdle and meeting a key pledge outlined by the Trump administration in November.
USDA this morning reported a daily sale of 190,000 MT of U.S. soybean meal to the Philippines in 2025-26. USDA also reported weekly export inspections of 1.337 MMT for the week ended Jan. 15, down 20,301 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.4 MMT.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 178 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively. Cordonnier indicates a neutral to higher bias toward the Brazilian crop, but noted a neutral to lower bias toward the Argentine crop as dryness concerns remain. He did raise his production estimate for Paraguay by 0.5 MT to 11 MMT.
Brazil’s soybeans were 2.0% harvested as of late last week, compared to 1.7% last year, according to Agrural. Mato Grosso leads the way with 6.6% harvested. Early yields continue to be very good.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, rain during the next week will be focused on northern regions where the drier areas in Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo benefit from the moisture while fieldwork is slowed across the region. Little rain will fall from Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo southward into Paraguay and southern Brazil and fieldwork should advance swiftly. Crop stress should be greatest in northeastern Mato Grosso and western Sao Paulo where soil moisture is already short in parts of the region. Another area of short soil moisture is in southern and parts of central Rio Grande do Sul and some crops there should be stressed as well. Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraguay into Sao Paulo while rain may be too light in far southern Brazil to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 1-3 as far southern Brazil should benefit from rain. In Argentina, the driest areas in southern regions will see little rain into Thursday and stress to crops should increase in many areas while losses of soil moisture elsewhere in southern as well as central Argentina leave many areas in need of rain to prevent quick increases in crop stress. Warm to hot temperatures this weekend into early next week in western and central Argentina will cause rapid increases in crop stress in the drier areas.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $10.71 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.61 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $10.71 1/4. First support is seen at $10.50 and then at last week’s low of $10.37 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $295.00 and then at $298.20. First support is seen at last week’s low of $288.40 and then at $285.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 53.38 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 53.48 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 7 3/4 cents to $5.10 1/4 and near the session low. March HRW lost 4 1/4 cents to $5.23 and near the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 3 cents to $5.62, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW futures markets saw technical selling pressure today. Bulls did not get much help from a sharply lower U.S. dollar index and a rally in crude oil prices. A risk-off day in the general marketplace today kept the wheat futures market bulls squelched.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 392,611 MT during the week ended Jan. 15, up 74,647 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
Ice crust and extremely cold weather over the past two weeks could damage winter wheat crops in Ukraine’s southern and eastern areas as well as part of its central regions, according to farmers’ union UAC earlier today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, an opportunity for a greater-coverage precipitation event will occur Friday through Saturday, involving mostly snow. This event will have some importance due to arctic air later this week promoting some threateningly cold temperatures. The most-likely area for impactful snow accumulations is across the southern half of the region. Some lighter snow is a possibility in the northern half; though, this snow in the north is not quite as likely. As a result, there is some winterkill concerns for Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northern Kansas if temperatures drop notably below zero with no snow on the ground. In the Northern Plains, significant cold temperatures will impact the region Thursday through Saturday. There is still little to no snow on the ground in the southwestern 65% of the region. Some additional snow will occur before the coldest weather arrives, but there will be pockets that only get a thin dusting of accumulation and this may not be enough to fully protect crops. Big crop losses are unlikely, but some damage cannot be ruled out in at least pockets of the southwest. The most extreme morning low temperatures could get close to -40 in northeastern areas where plenty of snow is on the ground, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.21 and then at last week’s high of $5.28. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.07 and then at the contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.31 and then at $5.36. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.16 and then at $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 32 points to 64.34 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw some chart-based selling today as the price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Cotton market bulls were mostly on the sidelines today amid a risk-off trading tone in the general marketplace and a big sell off in the U.S. stock market. Losses in cotton were limited today by sharp losses in the U.S. dollar index and a rally in the crude oil futures market.
World Weather Inc. today said a strong winter storm will occur Friday into Saturday, causing travel delays from western Texas to the central and northern Blacklands, with western areas seeing significant snow while the central and northern Blacklands likely see significant accumulations of freezing rain and sleet with mostly rain elsewhere. “The precipitation will induce welcome increases in soil moisture, but with drier weather expected to follow into the first days of February some of the moisture should soon be lost to evaporation,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the December low of 62.97 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at 64.00 cents and then at 63.68 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.