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S&P Global Energy was out this week with its closely watched yield estimates, pegging corn at a national average of 182 – below the USDA trendline estimate of 183. The average soybean yield was put at 53.2 bushels an acre, little different from USDA’s 53 bushel-an-acre mark.
Moreover, the corn yield is down significantly from the record 186.5 bushels an acre seen in 2026. Mindy McMurtry, senior analyst at S&P Global Energy, told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory on Thursday that the drop from last year reflected a tough start to planting in some areas, excessive precipitation in parts of the eastern Corn Belt and a hot and dry July, particularly in the western Corn Belt. The yield picture could improve if August weather cooperates, she said, but noted she would like to see more rain in the western Corn Belt.
Private crop estimates garner a lot of attention ahead of USDA’s August Crop Production Report, due Aug. 12, which will swap those trendline-based estimates for yields based on a combination of satellite data, farmer survey responses, weather conditions and, to a limited degree, crop condition ratings.
Of note, McMurtry said S&P is looking for corn and soybean acres to come in above USDA’s June 30 estimates. McMurtry said S&P had remained skeptical of USDA’s figures and that it was confident in going with higher figures based on internal satellite data and crop-insurance data.
StoneX earlier this week released its survey-based estimate, putting the U.S. corn yield at 184.8 bushels an acre and soybeans at 53 bushels an acre.
Market recap: Corn and soybeans managed small gains on some apparent late short covering Thursday, while wheat fell prey to renewed technical selling after taking out weekly lows. Oil futures rose, likely offering a modicum of support, after doubts emerged over an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz.
- December corn rose 2 cents to $4.62.
- November soybeans gained 3 cents to $11.77 ¾.
- September soft red winter wheat fell 11 cents to $6.31 ¼.
- December cotton gained 14 points to 83.16 cents
- October live cattle slumped $4.55 to $224.925, while September feeders lost $6.80 to $341.575.
- October lean-hog futures declined $1.30 to $81.725, hitting a four-week low.
Farm bill fails: Senate Democrats rejected a Republican-drafted farm bill Thursday in a dispute over Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, further raising doubts over a viable timeline for passing the long-sought legislation. A Senate Agriculture Committee vote to advance the legislation failed in a 10-11 party line vote. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has been absent since suffering a fall in June, while Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., was absent during the final vote. Democrats have insisted on a two-year delay to a requirement that would require states to pay a portion of benefit costs based on payment error rates. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman had offered a one-year delay.
The bill includes language that would allow year-round sales of E15, a long-sought priority for corn producers. Boozman pledged to hold another vote once the Senate returns from an upcoming recess in September, Agri-Pulse reported.
“We are extremely disappointed that legislation important to so many Americans failed to advance,” said National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower, in a statement. “This bill was particularly important to corn growers who have long pushed for legislation that would allow for the year-round sale of E15, a bright spot in an otherwise dim economic outlook.”
The American Soybean Association said it was disappointed the legislation didn’t advance. “ASA urges lawmakers to use the August recess to continue bipartisan negotiations, engage directly with farmers and agricultural stakeholders, and resolve the remaining issues preventing the bill from moving forward,” the group said in a statement. “The Senate should return in September prepared to advance a comprehensive five-year farm bill and deliver the certainty and support America’s farmers need.”
Oil extends climb: Oil futures added to gains in electronic trade late Thursday after news reports said Iran had attacked targets in the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had jumped almost 3% in earlier trade after reports an Iran-Oman deal to open the strait would bar U.S. and Israeli ships from using the waterway. Crude had fallen back sharply earlier this week after Trump administration officials had touted an imminent agreement.
China’s trade retaliation toolbox: China’s Commerce Ministry on Wednesday announced a series of export controls and sanctions against U.S. companies in response to recent U.S. measures. China placed tighter export controls on drones and related technologies, announced sanctions on seven U.S. companies and launched its first foreign trade-related national security investigation, the South China Morning Post reported.
- “China’s countermeasures have been restrained overall. China values the hard-won stability of China-US economic and trade relations. We hope the US side can work with China in the same direction,” the commerce ministry said in a statement.
China has been a steady buyer of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the U.S. in September and the soybean purchases are seen as a measure of good will. The U.S. has said that China has committed to purchasing 25 million metric tons of the crop a year.
Bloomberg said Beijing “appeared intent to impose enough costs to deter further US escalation without jeopardizing the trade truce or Xi’s upcoming meeting with President Donald Trump that’s expected in late September.”
Oil industry fears fuel export ban: Oil industry executives and White House officials are pushing to head off any move by the administration to curb U.S. petroleum exports, Politico reported, citing three people familiar with the effort. Industry representatives said the outreach extended to officials on the White House Domestic Policy Council, the National Energy Dominance Council, the Energy Department and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and comes as Trump has shown increasing frustration with stubbornly high fuel prices that could prove a drag on Republicans’ chances to keep control of Congress in this November’s elections. “There’s an all-hands-on-deck from industry and inside the administration to stave it off,” an energy industry executive told Politico.
Is Big Oil bracing for lower prices? Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas writes that the way oil majors are allocating dollars indicates that they are preparing for leaner times ahead, even as executives continue to sound the alarm on upside price risks due to the Iran war. He noted that together, ExxonMobil Holdings Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE, and BP Plc saw free cash flow – the difference between cash generation and expenses – of nearly $70 billion in the April-June period, while earnings jumped 160% from a year earlier. “Yet, rather than returning that huge war windfall to shareholders, the oil majors focused on paying down debt and restructuring operations,” Blas wrote.
Chevron reduced its leverage by about $8 billion, the most in a quarter ever, while Exxon also slashed debt; other majors have also shown significant restraint.