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Winter wheat conditions improve more than expected... USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 49% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, up four percentage points from last week. Analysts expected a 47% good/excellent rating. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” declined two points to 19%.
| This week | Last week | Year-ago | |
| Very poor | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Poor | 14 | 15 | 11 |
| Fair | 32 | 34 | 35 |
| Good | 40 | 38 | 43 |
| Excellent | 9 | 7 | 6 |
Winter wheat development remains ahead of normal, with 27% headed vs. the five-year average of 22%. The crop was 72% headed in Texas (61% average), 44% in Oklahoma (40%) and 19% in Kansas (10%).
Corn planting remains ahead of average... Corn planting doubled over the past week to 24%, two points ahead of the five-year average. Across the 12 top production states, planting stood at 16% in Illinois (26% average), 10% in Indiana (13%), 34% in Iowa (28%), 39% in Kansas (29%), 6% in Michigan (4%), 26% in Minnesota (21%), 47% in Missouri (41%), 21% in Nebraska (20%), 7% in North Dakota (2%), 8% in Ohio (6%), 23% in South Dakota (7%) and 4% in Wisconsin (7%).
Corn emergence stood at 5%, one point ahead of average.
Soybean planting well ahead of normal... Soybean planting advanced 12 points to 18%, six points ahead of average for late April. In the top 13 production states, planting stood at 45% in Arkansas (31% average), 22% in Illinois (20%), 10% in Indiana (10%), 25% in Iowa (13%), 13% in Kansas (7%), 8% in Michigan (6%), 13% in Minnesota (6%), 25% in Missouri (12%), 13% in Nebraska (10%), 2% in North Dakota (0%), 10% in Ohio (6%), 6% in South Dakota (2%) and 6% in Wisconsin (4%).
Spring wheat planting accelerates... Spring wheat planting jumped 13 points to 20%, nine points ahead of average. Planting was ahead of average in all but Minnesota (14% vs. 17% average). Planting advanced to 19% in top producer North Dakota (12%).
Spring wheat emergence stood at 5%, equal to the five-year average.
Cotton planting slightly ahead of normal... Cotton planting advanced four points to 15%, one point ahead of the five-year average. Planting stood at 21% in Texas (18% average) and 6% in Georgia (8%).
China downplays need for U.S. grain as record South American soybean imports arrive... China’s top planning officials said Monday the country’s grain supply remains secure even without U.S. feed grain and oilseed imports, citing abundant global alternatives and strong domestic reserves. Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, emphasized that U.S. crops like soybeans, corn, and sorghum “can be easily substituted” and that the global supply is “quite sufficient.”
Shipments of soybeans from Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are expected to surge above 30 MMT between April and June, setting a quarterly record, according to Bloomberg calculations. This flood of South American soybeans will ease a recent supply crunch and help cool domestic soymeal prices, which had spiked to their highest level since December 2023 after March soybean imports hit a decade low.
“Even without purchases of U.S. feed grains and oilseed, there won’t be much impact on China’s grain supply,” said Zhao. Brazilian shipments will help “further cool animal feed prices” after earlier supply disruptions, according to Yin Ruifen, who is affiliated with China’s ag ministry.
Trump’s tariff stance: No red line, no retreat despite economic pain... President Donald Trump has made it clear that there is no “red line” — no specific level of market decline or economic hardship — that would compel him to abandon or reverse his aggressive tariff policy. In an interview with The Atlantic, Trump and his advisers emphasized that he is prepared to withstand significant short-term economic pain, including a recession, to reshape U.S. trade relationships over the long term.
Trump has described the tariffs as “medicine” for the U.S. economy, arguing that “temporary pain is necessary to achieve greater economic health and independence.” Even as global markets tumble and recession fears grow, Trump has remained defiant, telling Americans to “HANG TOUGH” and dismissing concerns raised by political allies and corporate leaders.
The Atlantic notes: “Trump’s commitment to tariffs — one of his few consistent ideological positions over decades — appears immune to political backlash, market downturns, or economic warning signs.”
Although some administration officials have framed the tariffs as temporary bargaining tools, Trump has signaled they could become a permanent feature of U.S. economic policy if necessary. Meanwhile, economists warn the deepening uncertainty could itself trigger a recession, comparing the current environment to past economic crises.
Ackman: Tariffs are driving companies out of China; time favors U.S. in trade war... Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, argued in an X statement that prolonged tariffs are accelerating the exodus of supply chains from China, undermining China’s long-term advantage in a trade war with the U.S. He believes both nations are incentivized to lower tariffs soon, warning that China faces “severe and permanent economic consequences” if it delays. Key points and quotes:
On the Supply Chain Shift: “The longer the tariffs persist, the more rapidly every company that has a supply chain based in China relocates it to India, Vietnam, Mexico, the U.S. or some other country.”
On the Business Reality: “There is no board of directors or management team who will ever again feel comfortable relying on China for a major portion of their supply chain. The damage has been done.”
On the Path Forward: “Both China and the U.S. are highly incentivized to take the tariffs down to more reasonable levels — say 10% to 20% — as quickly as possible.”
On Negotiation Strategy: “A pause, however, would not be a sign of weakness... It is just common sense.”
Warning to China: “If China stubbornly decides to hold out and not negotiate due to pride or other emotional issues, China will suffer that much more severe and permanent economic consequences.”
Of note: Ackman proposes a 180-day tariff pause to allow for negotiations, stressing that time benefits the U.S. while China faces mounting reputational and economic risks.
Trump administration allows summer E15 sales... The Trump administration on Monday issued an emergency waiver to allow the nationwide sale of E15 gasoline during the summer driving season. The emergency waiver will go into effect on May 1 and is good for 20 days. But EPA said it expects to extend the waiver until it no longer deems it necessary. EPA has issued similar waivers for the summer in recent years.
Earlier this year, EPA said it would uphold an April 28 implementation date for a request from governors in Midwestern states to allow year-round sales of E15. In Monday’s action, EPA said it waived provisions that would have otherwise made E10 gasoline sold in the states of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin meet a more stringent standard than conventional gasoline in other areas of the country.
Mexico says it is boosting efforts to curb screwworm... Mexico has been working to respond to a damaging pest called New World screwworm (NWS) and is strengthening its efforts, President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday. “There are many control systems that already existed in Mexico, but now we are strengthening them starting from the southern border, and throughout the entire country, to prevent the spread,” she said.
Sheinbaum’s comments followed a warning by the U.S. over the weekend that it will restrict livestock imports from Mexico if the Mexican government does not intensify its fight against the pest.