Evening Report | What’s next for year-round E15

Triple-digit silver; dumping the dollar; tight cattle supplies continue

Capitol
A tough week in Washington for corn growers.
(File image)

Farm and biofuel groups were licking their wounds Friday, amid doubts that a Congress-appointed study group will be able to advance legislation next month that would allow year-round use of E15, a 15% blend of ethanol with gasoline.

Farm leaders and ethanol supporters were livid Thursday after last-minute wrangling saw House lawmakers drop language from funding bills that would have provided authorization. As a compromise, House GOP leadership agreed to appoint a working group, giving it a goal of coming up with standalone legislation next month.

Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, told Bloomberg that prospects for a standalone bill are bleak. “We’ve known for several months now that the appropriations bill would be the best way to get this done in the near term,” he said. That’s a sentiment widely shared among the farm and ethanol lobby.

Cooper said it was unlikely the group would come up with a solution before the council’s deadline of Feb. 15 to submit legislation to Congress. He said the RFA would continue to look for a way to pass E15 expansion, including the possibility of tacking it onto other legislation such as the farm bill.

E15 sales currently face limits during summer months due to air quality regulations.

A National Corn Growers Association study last fall said that a 1% increase in the average ethanol blend rate would add 1.36 billion gallons of ethanol, equal to about 486 million bushels of corn. A 5% increase, to move from E10 to E15, would translate to 6.8 billion gallons of ethanol, or roughly 2.4 billion bushels of corn a year. USDA has pegged 2025-26 marketing year ethanol use at 5.6 billion bushels.

Silver topped $100 an ounce for the first time ever on Friday, with the most actively traded futures contract gaining more than 5% to finish at $101.33. Silver has been on a historic rip since the middle of last year as precious metals find haven-related buying on geopolitical uncertainty. Silver has also benefited from its role as a highly in-demand industrial metal and its resulting exposure to electrification and the artificial-intelligence boom. The combo has allowed silver to sharply outpace gold, which has a record run of its own as it closes in on $5,000 an ounce.

It was a big down week for the dollar. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, slumped 1.9% on the week, its worst weekly performance since May. A weaker dollar helped account for those precious metal gains and was also a welcome tailwind for grain futures. But the performance is also being weighed as evidence global investors are turning away from U.S. assets as President Donald Trump continued an on-again, off-again approach to tariffs, as exemplified by his threats to impose extra duties on European countries last week followed by a U-turn this week after reaching a “framework” agreement on Greenland.

The dollar’s weakness in the face of rising geopolitical tensions this week is in contrast to the currency’s traditional role as a haven asset, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie, in a note.

He wrote:

Instead of flocking to the USD (U.S. dollar), traders flock to gold and its neighbors on the periodic table (e.g., silver, platinum) and defense stocks, and the USD has little to show for its erstwhile vauntedness. We think that this is because the implicit arrangements that have prevailed since WW2 are unraveling, however slowly. Those arrangements (colloquially known in economic space as Bretton Woods 1 and Bretton Woods 2) held the promise of US leadership and protection of the global order through the US’s diplomatic, economic, and military means, if need be. In return for this, the US demanded a modicum of subservience and cross-border financing from the US’s allies and others that joined the US-led rules-based order. Offshoots of this arrangement were that the US’s allies didn’t need a military, and that the US didn’t need to run a balanced budget, or even target a balanced budget. The USD’s reserve currency status was also an offshoot of these arrangements.

Cattle on Feed report underlines tight supplies. USDA on Friday reported that cattle on feed on Jan. 1 fell 3.2% from a year ago, while December placements declined 5.4% and marketings rose 1.8%. The figures were largely in line with expectations. Cattle futures ended on an up note Friday ahead of the report, cementing a winning week. February live cattle futures rose $2.525 to end at $234.90, and gained $2.75 for the week. March feeder cattle futures rose 90 cents to $360.175, contributing to a weekly gain of $3.725.

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