Correction: An earlier version of this article cited incorrect figures for June tractor sales. The figures have been corrected. Apologies for the error.
Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
A top Ukraine official said the country will do everything it can to protect its seaports and guarantee grain exports hold at least at last season’s levels, Reuters reported Wednesday.
Wheat futures soared Wednesday as escalated fighting between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea threatened exports from the two major exporters. September SRW wheat rose 32 1/2 cents to $6.77 1/2, while September HRW rose 42 cents to $7.20, – with both hitting two-month highs. September spring wheat rose 25 1/4 cents to $6.83 3/4.
Ukrainian forces hit multiple Russian vessels in the Black Sea Wednesday as Kyiv expanded the scope of its naval attacks. Wheat rallied late last week with Russia temporarily halting shipping through the Don-Azov Channel, a navigable waterway that connects the Don River with the Sea of Azov, after ships Ukraine has also hit Russian energy infrastructure, including oil tankers. Russia has stepped up its attacks on Black Sea ports. The Reuters report said four of Ukraine’s 13 large grain export terminals had suspended grain purchases due to the attacks.
- “The state recognizes the priority of maintaining agricultural exports,” said Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskiy, Reuters reported. “It will be difficult, but we will do everything possible to preserve minimum guaranteed export volumes to support international food security at a level no lower than last year.”
Before the recent escalation, Ukraine projected exports at around 43 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, which began in July. Last year it exported more than 37 million tons, the report noted.
Diesel crunch: The fighting in the Black Sea is also affecting energy markets, alongside the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which has served to again curtail energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Yemen’s Houthi rebels pose a renewed threat to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea route for energy shipments.
- “Diesel is both the most affected fuel and the most important for the macroeconomic outlook,” said Bridget Payne, head of oil and gas forecasting at Oxford Economics, in a note. “Its supply is being squeezed by lower Middle Eastern refinery output and the loss of Russian exports, while its central role in freight, agriculture, and industry means higher prices feed rapidly into transport, production, and distribution costs.”
Russia’s diesel-export ban in response to a domestic fuel shortage created by Ukraine’s attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure provided an additional shock to a market that was already exceptionally tight, Payne said. Oxford Economics says global diesel and gasoil loadings are on track to fall to a nine-year low in July, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day From July 1 to 10, around 32% below the 7 million bpd average in the three months before the Iran conflict.
NOPA crush: The U.S. soybean crush exceeded trade expectations in June as the daily pace of processing rebounded from an eight-month low posted in May to the strongest level in three months, according to the monthly NOPA data released Wednesday. NOPA members crushed 214.340 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 2.7% from May and up 15.7% from June 2025. Last month’s crush had been expected at 203.989 million bushels. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of June 30 fell to an eight-month low of 1.501 billion pounds, down 13.5% from stocks totaling 1.735 billion pounds at the end of May. The total was below all trade estimates.
June tractor sales slump 18.4%: Demand for new tractors continued to suffer in June. Total U.S. farm tractor sales in June were seen at 18,186, down 18.4% from the same month last year, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Producers bought 269 self-propelled combines last month, up 3.9% from June 2025.
Breaking down 2-wheel-drive tractor sales by size:
- Under-40-horsepower, down 22% at 11,767
- 40-100 HP, down 10% at 4,983
- 100+ HP, down 11.7% at 1,312
4-wheel drive tractor sales totaled 124, down 30.3%.
New England dairy woes: Vermont’s vital dairy industry has reached a critical tipping point following a wave of plant closures, including the upcoming August shutdown of the St. Albans DFA facility, VTDigger reported. Local farms are buckling under high overhead and aging infrastructure. An analysis of federal data by VTDigger found that Vermont farmers face an average loss of $8.65 per 100 pounds of milk produced – the largest margin among 19 states – with some operations facing up to $72,000 in monthly overhead.
Meanwhile, dairy processors are investing $11 billion nationally in 66 new or underway plants to meet a growing demand for protein, but none of these investments are in New England, the report noted. Instead, processors are favoring states like Texas, leaving local farmers to pay additional fees to transport their milk out of state.
Wildfire smoke spreads: Smoke from Ontario wildfires was forecast to spread across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast through at least Thursday, according to AccuWeather. The thickest smoke on Wednesday was thickest across northeastern portions of the Great Lakes and southern New England. The forecaster said dense smoke will be more expansive on Thursday, covering much of the Great Lakes and New England.
Air quality alerts have been issued from Wisconsin and Michigan through New York and Massachusetts due to the smoke, creating health concerns for anyone spending time outside, AccuWeather noted.
Don’t miss these must-reads: