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U.S., India trade negotiations going well, ‘very close’ on deal... Trade negotiations with India are moving well, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday.
Bessent said, “We are very close on India and it is easier to negotiate with India than many other countries because they have very high tariffs... So it is much easier to confront the direct tariffs as we go through these unfair trade deals that have been put in over decades that the non-tariff trade barriers can be much more insidious and also harder to detect. So, a country like India, which has posted and ready tariffs, makes it much easier to negotiate with them. So I think the Indian negotiations are moving well.”
President Donald Trump later echoed those comments, saying talks with India on tariffs were coming along great and he thinks the two countries will reach a deal.
Legal battles over Trump’s tariffs could jolt markets... Thirteen U.S. states have launched legal challenges to President Trump’s sweeping use of tariffs, aiming to both invalidate the current measures and curb the executive branch’s authority to impose them unilaterally. As Tom Essaye writes in The Sevens Report, “The tariff drama will soon enter a new phase — a legal one,” and the outcome “has the potential to substantially move markets.”
Two major lawsuits filed: Twelve states (including New York, Illinois and Oregon) filed jointly, while California filed a separate lawsuit. Both claim Trump’s tariffs, enacted via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), overstep legal authority. Trump used IEEPA after declaring an economic emergency on April 2 to justify the tariffs. But as Essaye notes, “IEEPA was actually designed to limit presidential power” and has historically been used for sanctions — not trade policy.
The U.S. Court of International Trade will hear the cases with a three-judge panel. “No president has used IEEPA to levy tariffs against trading partners,” Essaye emphasizes. The rulings could eventually be appealed to the Supreme Court. If the states win:
- “Massive rally in stocks,” with S&P 500 surging 2%-plus
- Tech, consumer discretionary, financials and industrials lead gains
- Dollar index rises sharply, Treasury yields drop
- Gold drops “hard,” while oil rallies on trade optimism
If Trump Wins:
- Modest S&P 500 decline (less than 1%)
- Defensive sectors outperform; tech and discretionary lag
Essaye concludes that while legal resolution may take months, “we should start hearing more about these challenges” later this summer — and they “will have the potential to move markets.”
Trump’s tariffs spark cautious revival for U.S. textile mills... Some U.S. textile manufacturers are experiencing a revival in demand after decades of decline, thanks to President Trump’s new tariffs, which have made them more competitive against lower-cost Chinese imports, the Wall Street Journal reports. However, the uneven and uncertain rollout of the tariffs is making companies hesitant to invest aggressively.
The context is sobering: Chinese imports have hollowed out the U.S. textile sector over the past 25 years, with textile-mill employment down 80% since 2000 and 28 mills shuttered in just the last few years. Beyond the shifting trade policies, manufacturers are also wary of weakening consumer sentiment amid the escalating trade war. There’s also a risk that furniture makers may shift sourcing to countries like India and Turkey, where tariffs are lower.
U.S. consumer confidence plummets amid trade concerns... The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points in April to 86.0, the fifth straight monthly decline and the lowest reading since May 2020. Growing concerns with the tariffs/trade situation weighed on consumer sentiment.
The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 0.9 point to 133.5. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, slid 12.5 points to 54.4 – the lowest level since October 2011 and far below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Carney leads Liberals to victory... Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals retained power in the country’s election on Monday but fell short of the majority government he had wanted to help him negotiate tariffs with U.S. President Donald Trump. At last report, the Liberals were leading or elected in 167 electoral districts, known as seats, followed by the Conservatives with 145, with votes still being counted. The Liberals had needed to win 172 of the House of Commons’ 343 seats for a majority that would allow them to govern without support from a smaller party.
It was still a stunning turnaround after the governing Liberal Party trailed badly in polls only months ago, as voters showed their displeasure with Justin Trudeau’s government. But the impact of serious threats from the Trump administration propelled the Liberals to a win.
Carney said the coming months would be challenging and require sacrifices. “Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over,” he said in his victory speech in Ottawa. “The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over. These are tragedies, but it’s also our new reality.”
Carney acknowledged a changed world, with U.S. integration no longer a given, and a Trump administration betraying the global trading system that America helped build.
Mike Jubinville with MarketsFarm told us, “Western Canada (Prairie region) and farmers in general lean heavily towards the Conservative party vote. But the view towards the Trump administration is universal no matter the party in government. Canadian farmers are thankful that ag trade between the U.S. and Canada is at the present time operating more or less normally because of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). And I think American farmers should think similarly, as Canada is one of America’s largest markets for U.S. ag-related exports. It’s a relationship we all very much wish to maintain and build upon to the benefit of all partners. But there sure is an underlying unease up here that Donald Trump cannot be trusted to respect trade deals (old and new) – even ones he negotiated. There is a bitter distain of this Trump administration and its deplorable actions against a long-standing friend and ally.”
Brazil’s Mato Grosso farmers sue global grain traders over soy moratorium agreement... Brazil’s Mato Grosso farmers lobby Aprosoja-MT has filed a lawsuit against global grain companies over Brazil’s so-called “soy moratorium,” a voluntary agreement by traders that bans the purchase of soybeans from areas of the Amazon deforested after 2008.
The defendants in the suit include the Brazilian units of ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus Company and COFCO, according to a copy of Aprosoja’s complaint filed with the court and seen by Reuters.
Lobbies for grain exporters, such as Abiove and Anec, are included as defendants in the proceedings.
Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled on Monday the country’s biggest farming state will be allowed to withdraw tax incentives from signatories of the so-called “soy moratorium.” The ruling must now be confirmed by a panel of Supreme Court justices before it can be enforced from Jan. 1, 2026, the decision said.
USDA to replace host of archived gov’t data... USDA expects to stop posting crop and livestock reports on Cornell University’s Mann Library website once the government develops an alternative for its online archive, an official with USDA’s statistical agency said. USDA is working on “another solution” to store public archived crop data, the official said during a data users’ meeting, but did not offer a timeline.
CME to launch new Black Sea wheat contract in June... CME Group will launch a new Black Sea wheat futures contract in June that will track export prices in Romania and Bulgaria, it announced. The new product, subject to regulatory approval, will be linked to Argus Media’s index of export prices for 12.5% protein wheat in the “CVB” zone comprising the Romanian port of Constanta and the Bulgarian ports of Varna and Burgas, CME said. The new contract will be cash-settled, priced in U.S. dollars and traded in 50-metric-ton lots. Trading will start on June 2. This is the latest attempt by CME to develop grain derivatives in the crucial Black Sea export zone.