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Winter wheat conditions a little better than expected... USDA rated 48% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” in its first condition ratings of the spring, one percentage point higher than analysts expected. However, the good/excellent rating dropped seven points from last fall. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” stood at 21%, up nine points from last fall.
| This week | End Nov. | Year-ago | |
| Very poor | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Poor | 15 | 9 | 8 |
| Fair | 31 | 33 | 32 |
| Good | 41 | 47 | 48 |
| Excellent | 7 | 8 | 8 |
USDA reported 5% of the crop was headed, equal to the five-year average.
Corn planting starts at average pace... USDA reported corn planting was 2% done as of Sunday, equal to the five-year average. Texas by far had the most planted at 59%, one point ahead of average. In the Corn Belt, planting stood at 4% in Kansas (3% average) and 6% in Missouri (3%), while none of the other states had started.
Cotton planting starts slower than normal... USDA reported 4% of the cotton crop was planted as of Sunday, two points behind the five-year average. Texas was 6% planted, four points behind average.
Spring wheat planting begins at average pace... USDA reported spring wheat planting stood at 3% as of Sunday, equal to the five-year average. Top producer North Dakota had 1% seeded, equal to the average pace for the beginning of April.
Trump threatens more Chinese tariffs as trade tensions escalate... President Donald Trump threatened to slap additional 50% import taxes on China if Beijing doesn’t eliminate its new tariffs on U.S. goods. Both sides appear to be digging in their heels and willing to keep extending the tariffs battle.
Trump posted on social media, “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th.”
The 50% tariff would come on top of the 34% duty the president imposed on all Chinese imports — set to begin Wednesday — as well as a 20% levy that he put in place earlier tied to fentanyl trafficking, according to a White House official.
Separately, the White House issued a veto threat on a bipartisan bill in the Senate that would limit the president’s authority to impose tariffs. “If passed, this bill would dangerously hamper the President’s authority and duty to determine our foreign policy and protect our national security,” the White House said in a message to lawmakers.
New chapter in U.S./China trade tensions has opened... American farmers may pay the steepest price in the building trade actions between the U.S. and China. On Friday, China announced a sweeping 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. agricultural imports, triggering fears of tens of billions in lost revenue and deep market disruptions for one of America’s most vulnerable sectors. According to the New York Times, China imported $27 billion worth of American agricultural and related products in 2024, making it the third-largest market behind Mexico and Canada. Those numbers are now in jeopardy. “If these tariffs go into effect for a significant period, we’re likely looking at a disruption that is likely to be severe, and likely worse than the 2018 trade war,” said David Ortega, a food economics professor at Michigan State University.
During the first Trump administration, a prolonged U.S./China trade war shaved off an estimated $25.7 billion from U.S. agricultural exports to China. The current move by Beijing, made in response to new global tariffs announced by President Trump earlier, may eclipse even those staggering losses. Ortega warned of more than immediate financial pain. “We saw acreage reductions, market share losses, and long-term structural shifts in global trade flows,” he told the Times.
Soybeans — a cornerstone of U.S. agricultural exports — will now face a 60% tariff in China. That’s twice as high as during the 2018 standoff. The American Soybean Association (ASA) estimates that this could cost U.S. farmers $5.9 billion annually. Meanwhile, Brazilian growers, who gained traction in China last time around, are expected to benefit again. “ASA strongly encourages the administration to swiftly negotiate and address tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. agriculture exports,” the group urged in a statement. Other top targets include cotton, sorghum, beef, pork and seafood — each with over $1 billion in exports to China last year.
Ian Sheldon, a professor of agricultural policy at Ohio State, warned in the New York Times that the consequences extend beyond China: “We will lose more market share in China, and the potential to divert that elsewhere in the world will be stymied by the fact that the tariffs implemented yesterday were so broad and across so many potential export markets… Their revenue will fall because commodity prices will fall,” Sheldon added. “And farmers are already facing a margin squeeze right now.”
Beyond new tariffs that take effect April 10, China’s General Administration of Customs announced import bans from six U.S. facilities — five in poultry and one in sorghum — citing health and safety concerns. While companies like Darling Ingredients said they had received no prior complaints, the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council predicts the suspension could slash U.S. chicken exports to China by 59%, costing hundreds of millions of dollars.
EU weighs 25% tariff on some U.S. goods in metals dispute... The European Union is proposing 25% tariffs on select U.S. goods in retaliation for Trump’s decision last month to put levies on aluminum and steel imports. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, shared a document, seen by Bloomberg, listing dozens of product category codes it plans to target.
EU member states aim to approve the plan later this week and it would enter into force on April 15, although most of the duties wouldn’t be collected until mid-May, an EU official said.
Countries seek trade talks amid Trump’s sweeping tariffs... More than 50 countries have reached out to the Trump administration to open negotiations following the sweeping new tariffs, according to White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. “They’re doing that because they understand that they bear a lot of the tariff,” Hassett said on ABC’s This Week, emphasizing the global ripple effect of the policy.
The administration is expected to prioritize bilateral talks with key allies and strategic economies. Countries seeking exemptions or reductions may need to offer reciprocal market access, investment commitments, or trade reforms (especially non-tariff trade barriers).
Trump reinforced his hardline trade stance over the weekend, declaring that no tariff rollbacks will occur unless the U.S. achieves a zero trade deficit with targeted countries — a dramatic escalation in rhetoric as markets reel from the economic fallout. Trump’s demand: no deals unless they completely eliminate bilateral trade deficits. “We’re not going to have deficits with your country,” he told reporters, referencing recent talks with unnamed global leaders. “To me, a deficit is a loss.”
Despite rising fears of recession and market turmoil, Trump insisted inflation is not a serious concern, brushing aside fears about the impact on consumers, including during back-to-school shopping season.
The administration plans to implement sector-specific tariffs on top of the existing measures. Industries affected would be exempt from this month’s reciprocal foreign tariffs — a carve-out likely aimed at managing domestic political fallout.
Outlook: Trump’s “surplus or bust” strategy introduces a significant new hurdle to global trade negotiations and amplifies risks of protracted economic strain. With higher tariffs just taking effect and more under consideration, markets and foreign governments now face a White House unwilling to compromise unless trade imbalances are not just narrowed — but fully erased.