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Trump issues second wave of tariff letters... President Donald Trump has intensified his global tariff campaign by releasing a second batch of letters to six countries, notifying them of new U.S. tariffs on exports effective Aug. 1.
The new tariffs — 30% for Libya, Iraq and Algeria; 25% for Brunei and Moldova; and 20% for the Philippines — are part of Trump’s push for “reciprocal” trade and efforts to shrink the U.S. trade deficit.
There have been some changes from previously announced rates. For example, the tariff on Iraq was reduced from 39% to 30%, Moldova’s rate dropped from 31% to 25% and the Philippines’ rate increased from 17% to 20%.
These countries are not among the largest U.S. trading partners. The overall trade deficits with them are relatively minor in the context of the U.S. economy.
The administration has left open the possibility of further tariff announcements for additional countries in the coming days.
USDA’s July crop reports coming Friday... USDA will issue its first all-wheat crop production estimate in Friday’s Crop Production Report. In the Supply & Demand Report, old-crop balance sheets will reflect June 1 stocks, which were final 2024-25 ending stocks for wheat, along any changes to usage forecasts. The new-crop balance sheets will feature USDA’s June acreage estimates, along with adjustments to projected 2025-26 use. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for U.S. ending stocks
Corn: 1.353 billion bu. for 2024-25 (1.365 billion bu. in June); 1.720 billion bu. for 2025-26 (1.750 billion bu. in June)
Soybeans: 358 million bu. for 2024-25 (350 million bu. in June); 302 million bu. for 2025-26 (295 million bu. in June)
Wheat: 851 million bu. for 2024-25 (set by June 1 stocks); 895 million bu. for 2025-26 (898 million bu. in June)
Cotton: 4.43 million bales for 2025-26 (4.3 million bales in June)
Expectations for U.S. wheat production
All wheat: 1.951 billion bu. (1.921 billion bu. in June)
All winter wheat: 1.358 billion bu. (1.382 billion bu. in June)
HRW: 773 million bu. (782 million bu. in June)
SRW: 341 million bu. (345 million bu. in June)
White winter: 249 million bu. (254 million bu. in June)
Other spring: 475 million bu. (first survey-based estimate)
Durum: 79 million bu. (first survey-based estimate)
USDA expedites $16 billion in disaster aid for farmers... USDA announced that farmers who suffered eligible crop losses in 2023 and 2024 can now apply for $16 billion in disaster assistance through the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The move aims to deliver Congressionally mandated relief quickly, with USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) rolling out payments in two stages.
- Stage 1 applications open July 10 for producers who received crop insurance or NAP disaster assistance for 2023-2024 losses. Prefilled forms are being mailed to eligible producers.
- Stage 2 — targeting shallow or uncovered losses — will launch in early fall.
Program highlights
- Eligibility: Losses must be due to natural disasters in 2023 or 2024, including drought, wildfires, floods, hurricanes and other severe weather.
- Application: Producers must submit FSA-526 forms at local FSA offices. Stage 1 payments are based on existing crop insurance or NAP loss data, with payment capped at 90% of loss and subject to a 35% SDRP payment factor.
- Requirements: Producers receiving aid must maintain crop insurance or NAP coverage for the next two years at 60% or higher, or repay the assistance with interest.
- Exclusions: Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine and Massachusetts are excluded from SDRP but will use state block grants funded by the American Relief Act.
This announcement is part of a broader $30 billion congressional disaster aid package for farmers and ranchers in 2025. To date, USDA has already distributed over $7.8 billion via the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program and more than $1 billion through the Emergency Livestock Relief Program for losses in 2023 and 2024.
USDA approves just over 200,000 acres for CRP general signup... USDA has accepted 203,283 acres for enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) from this year’s general signup, with contracts to begin Oct. 1, 2025. Out of 261,359 acres offered, 255,994 acres were eligible for ranking, and only those scoring at least 202 on the Environmental Benefits Index (EBI) were deemed “basically acceptable.” Kansas led all states with 70,813 acres in acceptable offers (they have not yet accepted all these acres, just declared them to be acceptable for entry into CRP), followed by Washington (19,111 acres), Nebraska (18,114 acres) and Texas (12,201 acres). No other state had more than 10,000 acres approved.
USDA has not disclosed how many expiring CRP contracts set to mature on Sept. 30, 2025, were re-offered or re-enrolled. As of late May, there were 25.9 million acres enrolled in CRP — close to the program’s 27-million-acre cap — with 956,406 acres scheduled to expire this fall. The ongoing continuous CRP signup, which started May 12, is now extended through July 31. USDA has yet to announce enrollment numbers for this round or any details on the CRP Grasslands signup, leaving questions about the program’s future and available acreage heading into the next farm bill.
New national cover crop report... The University of Missouri’s Center for Regenerative Agriculture released the first-ever national cover crop variety test report, marking a major step forward in sustainable farming. Backed by a $10 million USDA grant, the project brings together researchers, seed companies and government agencies to evaluate how different cover crop varieties perform across the country. Link to report.
The initial report covers data from 11 states, testing 25 varieties from six species. Researchers measured key traits like biomass production, winter survival, flowering time, weed control and disease resistance. This information is crucial as U.S. cover crop acreage has soared to 21 million acres, increasing the need for reliable seed choices and region-specific recommendations.
Beyond the variety trials, the project also focuses on breeding better cover crops, studying root growth and forage quality and helping farmers learn about seed production and management. The team invites farmers to join future trials as citizen scientists, ensuring the results reflect real-world conditions.
A free national webinar on July 14 will introduce the report and help farmers and advisors put the findings to use.
FOMC minutes show divergent attitudes toward rate cut... Federal Reserve officials diverged at their June meeting about how aggressively they would be willing to cut interest rates, minutes from the June 17-18 monetary policy meeting showed. Policymakers largely held to a wait-and-see position on future rate moves, largely reflecting the stance that policy is well positioned to respond to any changes in data.
“Most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would likely be appropriate,” the minutes said. But the level of required rate cuts varied. A “couple” officials said the next cut could come as soon as this month, while “some” thought no reductions this year would be appropriate. “Several” officials said they thought the current overnight funds rate “may not be far” from neutral.
“Participants agreed that although uncertainty about inflation and the economic outlook had decreased, it remained appropriate to take a careful approach in adjusting monetary policy,” the minutes stated. Officials also noted that they “might face difficult tradeoffs if elevated inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for employment weakened.”