Cotton producers: Advance old-crop, new-crop sales… Cotton futures climbed to multi-year highs despite a moderately bearish USDA acreage report and persistent robust supplies on the world market. New-crop futures are likely to face heavy resistance at the psychologically important 80-cent mark. We advise cotton producers to sell 15% of old-crop production to advance 2025-26 sales to 90%. We will hold the final 10% as gambling stocks. We advise sales of 15% of expected 2026 production as well, bringing total sales to 40%. Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
The top regulator of U.S. futures markets told the House Agriculture Committee that the agency is committed to punishing fraud at a time when suspiciously timed trades in oil, stock and prediction markets are getting increased scrutiny from Congress.
- “We will find you and you will face the full force of the law,” Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig said in prepared testimony.
Media reports have highlighted a series of suspiciously well-timed trades that have taken place just ahead of key White House announcements of social-media posts about actions in Venezuela and in the Iran war. Bloomberg on Wednesday reported the CFTC was probing a number of suspicious trades.
Reuters reported earlier this month that traders placed a large, unusual $950 million bet on the oil price falling just hours ahead of the announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Bloomberg noted that on March 23, oil and stocks futures worth billions of dollars were traded 15 minutes before Trump said previously threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would be delayed, the report noted. The president’s comments in a Truth Social post sent crude prices plummeting and equities soaring.
Reuters said its review of trading ahead of major Trump administration decisions on tariffs, Venezuela and Iran that led to significant market moves showed at least four instances where legal experts said it appeared investors knew what would happen shortly before it did. Many of these trades fall within the CFTC’s jurisdiction.
The White House has denied any involvement in alleged insider trades, Reuters said, while Selig batted away a question from Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern, who asked whether the White House had attempted to interfere in CFTC investigations.
“I’m not going to play speculation games with you, but I will tell you that we have a zero tolerance policy when it comes to fraud, manipulation and insider trading,” Selig said.
Vietnam accelerates biofuel rollout: Vietnam is speeding up its timeline for the mandatory use of biofuel despite concerns over supply levels, quality and cost, as it seeks to strengthen energy security while the Middle East conflict drags on, Bloomberg reported.
A nationwide rollout of E10, a mix of 10% ethanol and 90% unleaded gasoline, is set for the end of this month ahead of an original June timetable, according to a trade ministry draft regulation. The move follows similar drives in Indonesia and Thailand, and is intended to reduce dependence on petroleum products that are becoming increasingly expensive as the Iran war disrupts global oil and gas supplies, the report said.
- Pay attention: The report noted domestic production will only be able to meet about 40% of estimated demand once at full capacity and the country will need to rely on imports from countries like the US and Brazil to bridge the gap. That could still leave it exposed to volatility from logistics disruptions and price fluctuations, said Do Van Dung, President of Ho Chi Minh City Society of Automotive Engineers.
India weighs sulphur-export curb: India is considering a proposal to restrict sulphur exports after industry lobby groups raised worries about soaring prices and disruption to supplies from the Persian Gulf, Reuters reported. A move by China to ban sulphuric acid exports has raised concerns about ripple effects on already tight fertilizer supplies and on mining operations.
Reuters noted that Indian restrictions could add to upward pressure on global sulphur prices, as supplies from the Middle East are disrupted by the Iran war and with China also set to restrict sulphuric acid exports from next month.
El Nino and the monsoon: India’s weather office is forecasting a below-average monsoon in 2026, with an El Nino expected to develop and weigh on rainfall in the latter half of the June to September season, Reuters reported. In the past, India has seen below-average rainfall in most El Nino years, at times triggering severe droughts that ravaged crops and prompted export curbs on certain grains. El Nino, a warming of the central and eastern Pacific, alters atmospheric circulation and weakens monsoon winds over the Indian subcontinent, the report noted.
Low hire, low fire: First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign that layoffs remain restrained despite signs of a cooling labor market. Initial claims in the week ended April 11 fell to 207,000, down from 218,000 a week earlier. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had produced an average forecast of 215,000.
Continuing claims, which offer a read on the scale of the unemployed population, edged up to 1.82 million in the week ended April 4, up from 1.79 million the previous week.
- “The latest jobless claims data offer no indication that the US war with Iran has had a notable impact on the labor market,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a note. “Initial claims have see-sawed over the last two weeks due to seasonal factors but remain at levels consistent with a low pace of layoffs.”
The mega-layoff?: While claims data points to a jobs market that’s holding its own, the Wall Street Journal on Thursday highlighted signs of a disturbing trend that’s emerged in Silicon Valley and threatens to spread beyond: the “mega-layoff.”
It noted that in recent weeks, Snap has moved to lay off 16% of its staff. Block lopped off 40% of its workforce. And Oracle is shedding thousands of employees, after Amazon.com cut about 30,000 in a matter of months.
These employers are seizing on the potential financial upsides of severing swaths of their workforces at once, the report said, noting that the approach is a departure from recent norms: Previously, mass layoffs were often viewed as a sign of trouble or mismanagement requiring a company to take drastic measures to right its performance. Now, companies that swing the big ax are more likely to get a juicy stock bump and accolades from investors for taking bold action.
Is it all about AI? Not necessarily. The report said that, according to executives, the rationale for the cuts appears to be driven less by AI’s abilities to replace workers outright than by the soaring costs of building the technology. And many companies, particularly in tech, continue to course-correct after overhiring during the pandemic.
“Others are going to follow suit,” Beth Steinberg, a veteran human-resources executive, told the Journal. “A few companies will do it, they’ll get praise.” That, she said, will encourage other leadership teams to “come back to their companies and be like, ‘We have to do huge layoffs.’”