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Corn and soybean basis levels have generally strengthened across the Eastern Corn Belt since mid-June but are unlikely to defy seasonal weakness as summer continues, according to an analysis by Josh Strine of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
“As we move through the second half of summer, seasonal trends suggest the strongest basis is behind us,” Strine wrote. “Historical trends for both corn and soybeans indicate a weekly decline in basis across the region over the next month.”
Over the past four weeks, corn basis relative to September futures rose in 39 of 41 tracked districts, Strine said. Illinois saw broad gains of at least $0.07/bu — reaching a $0.20/bu increase in the southwest part of the state — while West Central Michigan posted the largest gain at $0.24/bu. Ohio and Indiana maintain the region’s highest basis levels, with every Ohio district at or above September futures (Central Ohio at +$0.20/bu). Conversely, Iowa was the weakest, ranging from -$0.24/bu to -$0.36/bu.
Soybean basis trends relative to August futures were more varied. Gains exceeded $0.20/bu in four districts across East Central Iowa, West and Southwest Illinois, and Southwest Michigan. The strongest soybean basis is concentrated along the Ohio River, where river terminals reached $0.22/bu. In contrast, Indiana and Ohio recorded slight month-over-month declines in certain districts, with Ohio being the only state where average processor basis weakened over the past four weeks.
Strine noted that decreases are already evident in corn basis across several districts over the past week. In the three southern districts of Indiana, the drops were $0.04/bu, $0.10/bu, and $0.22/bu.
Southern Rust confirmed in Iowa: It’s back – but don’t panic. Iowa State University Extension Field Crops Pathologist Alison Robertson told AgriTalk host Chip Flory on Wednesday morning that the first Iowa case of Southern Rust this year was confirmed in a Benton County cornfield. A widespread outbreak of Southern Rust was seen denting yields in Iowa and other parts of the Corn Belt in 2025. Robertson, however, noted that Southern Rust cases aren’t uncommon and have appeared in the state in most years over the past two decades or more. The advice to growers is to be vigilant, but maintain perspective.
Robertson noted that dewpoints have been lower this year compared to extremely humid conditions in 2025. That means dew isn’t keeping corn leaves wet for extended periods this year.
- “The length that those leaves are wet is very, very important,” Robertson says. “And so if we’re not getting those dews that are lasting until 9, 10 o’clock in the morning, we’re just not going to have as intense of an infection as we had last year.”
Southern rust accounted for the greatest estimate of disease-related corn yield loss in the United States and Ontario, Canada, in 2025, according to the Crop Protection Network.
CME to launch sorghum-basis futures: CME Group on Wednesday said it plans to launch sorghum-basis futures, with trading expected to start on Aug. 24, pending regulatory review. The new basis contract reflects the price difference between sorghum and corn, which are both used in animal feed and as an ethanol feedstock. Sorghum’s premium over corn typically signals international demand driving values higher. A deep discount compels domestic buyers to shift feed rations toward cheaper sorghum.
- “In recent years, the sorghum-to-corn cash spread has experienced considerable volatility, swinging from sharp premiums to steep discounts,” said John Ricci, managing director and global head of agricultural products at CME Group, in a news release. “The sorghum futures contract will provide market participants a precise instrument to hedge that basis risk.”
Brent crude back above $90 a barrel: Oil futures rose for a third straight day as the U.S. and Iran continued to trade strikes. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose $1.79, or 2%, to settle at $91.01 a barrel – the first close above the $90 threshold in over a month. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned oil could exceed its spring highs, potentially topping $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Diesel prices, meanwhile, have surged, outpacing the rise in crude, and remain particularly vulnerable to a further surge due to Russia’s ban on exports of the fuel, the analysts warned. Read: Diesel prices are surging on tight supplies as input squeeze intensifies
- The Red Sea threat: A threat by Iran-backed Houthi militants, who control part of Yemen, to use attacks on vessels in the Bab el_Mandeb Strait, which connects the southern Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, could deprive the market of a safety valve that helped limit the war’s disruption of global crude supplies. Bloomberg noted that widespread Houthi attacks could jeopardize oil exports from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, which the kingdom has relied upon to bypass the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia shipped 3.65 million barrels a day of crude via Yanbu in May, Bloomberg said, equivalent to just over half the country’s total pre-war exports.
Argentina seen topping Brazil in corn exports: Argentina could surpass Brazil to become the world’s second-largest corn exporter in the 2025-26 marketing year, Hedgepoint Global Markets said Tuesday, according to a Reuters report. The shift comes as shipments from Brazil to key buyer Iran have dropped sharply as a result of the Middle East conflict.
The report said Hedgepoint projects Brazil’s corn exports at 43 million metric tons in 2025/26, up from 41.1 million tons in the previous season but below Argentina’s estimated 45 million tons. In the first half of 2026, Iran received about 1.5 million tons of Brazilian corn, down from 2.3 million in the same period of 2025, Reuters noted. Iran received 9 million tons of Brazilian corn in 2025, serving as the country’s top export destination, the report said. In the first half of this year, Iran received around 1.5 million tons of Brazilian corn, down from 2.3 million in the same period last year.
Smaller Russian wheat crop: Consulting firm Sovecon cuts its forecast for the Russian wheat crop this year to 88.3 MMT, down from 88.9 MMT, citing weaker prospects in the south of the country and a smaller spring wheat area.
CEO of world’s biggest bank has some concerns: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC late Monday that investors are underestimating risks facing the global economy and that he wouldn’t be interested in buying either stocks or long-dated U.S. Treasury securities at current prices.
- “I do think those risks are probably bigger than people think,” said Dimon, who helms the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, referring to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, U.S.-China tensions, and rising military spending at the same time government deficits are on the rise.
Cargill sells Memphis cotton warehouse: Cargill has sold a nearly 1-million-square-foot facility in Memphis to a global agricultural business and food distributor, the Memphis Business Journal reported. Cargill sold the 988,000 square-foot facility, which sits on 49 acres, for $5.8 million to Richardson, Texas-based Olam Agri Americas Inc., the report said, citing Shelby County Register of Deeds records. Olam Agri — a subsidiary of Singapore-based Olam Group — sources, processes, manufactures, and distributes several agricultural products, including oil, wheat, and rice and is also a cotton supplier, the report said.