Evening Report | September 26, 2022

Click here to view weekly export inspections charts and here for report details.

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

Corn harvest a little slower than expected... As of Sunday, USDA reported 12% of the corn crop was harvested, one percentage point slower than expected and two points behind the five-year average. USDA said 92% of the crop was dented and 58% was mature, two and three points behind the respective averages.

USDA rated 52% of the corn crop “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from the previous week, though there was a one-point decline in the top category. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” remained at 21%.

Soybean harvest also slower than expected... USDA reported 8% of the soybean crop had been cut, three points slower than expected and five points behind average. USDA said 63% of the crop was dropping leaves, two points behind average.

USDA made no changes to its soybean crop condition ratings, with 55% of the crop rated “good” to “excellent” and 15% “poor” to “very poor.”  

Cotton condition declines, harvest slightly ahead of average... USDA lowered its cotton condition rating by two points to 31% “good” to “excellent.” The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased three points to 42%.

USDA said 15% of the cotton crop was harvested, one percentage point ahead of the five-year average. Texas had harvested one-quarter of its crop, four points ahead of average. Only 3% of Georgia’s crop was harvested, while 74% of the state’s crop had bolls open with heavy rains and winds from Hurricane Ian expected Friday night and Saturday. In total, 67% of the cotton crop had bolls open, five points ahead of average.

Spring wheat harvest nearly complete... U.S. spring wheat harvest advanced to 96% done as of Sunday, one point behind the five-year average. North Dakota’s harvest was 93% completed, three points behind average.

Winter wheat planting nearly one-third complete... As of Sunday, USDA reported 31% of the winter wheat crop was seeded, one point ahead of the five-year average. Planting stood at 44% in Texas (31% average), 21% in Oklahoma (26% average) and 19% in Kansas (23% average).

Winter wheat emergence increased to 9%, three points ahead of the five-year average.

EU crop monitor raises Russian wheat crop forecast... The European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS on Monday raised its estimate for Russia’s 2022 wheat crop to a record 95 MMT, up from its June forecast of 88.8 MMT. That’s still below SovEcon’s forecast for a 100-MMT Russian wheat crop.

MARS raised its Russian barley crop estimate 2 MMT to 21.7 MMT. It cut the country’s corn crop estimate by 300,000 MT to 16.4 MMT.

China to supply more hog data, policies for stabilizing supplies... China will increase hog production information and introduce support policies to ensure stable pork supply in the fourth quarter, especially during major holidays, the agriculture ministry said on Monday. In order to guide the production, it is necessary to increase the frequency of information release such as the key indicators of breeding sows and live pigs, the ministry said in a statement. Further implementation of long-term support such as loans, environmental and land-use policies are also needed to stabilize breeding expectations, it added.

Gov’t roadmap for SAF development... The Biden administration released its plans for boosting Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production. The report (link) lists various challenges ahead and calls for “coordination of U.S. government support” for oilseed cover crops and other near-term lipid crops. The goals:

• Achieving a minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional fuel.
• Meeting a goal of supplying sufficient SAF to meet 100% of aviation fuel demand by 2050.
• Scale up the production of SAF to 35 billion gallons per year by 2050. A near-term goal of 3 billion gallons per year is established as a milestone for 2030.

British pound plunges to record-low... The British pound plunged to a record low today following last week’s announcement by the new U.K. government that it would implement tax cuts and investment incentives to boost growth. Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey said the British central bank was “monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets.” He also noted BOE “will not hesitate” to raise interest rates to get inflation down to its 2% target, though that provide only fleeting support for the pound.

WSJ editorial slams Biden’s trade policy... An editorial in the Wall Street Journal said President Joe Biden’s trade policy “has largely been a failure, hardly better than Donald Trump’s, and the latest proof is the collapse of hope for a bilateral deal with the United Kingdom.” The editorial item said U.K. PM Liz Truss “has inherited a dismal status quo created by leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. Though the Trump administration started work on a deal, it never got far, and President Biden seems too afraid of the politics of trade… Truss will now have to focus on her daring domestic reform agenda, but it’s too bad Mr. Biden let growth in trade slip away.”

California first state to ban natural gas heaters, furnaces... California is committing to a plan that will make it the first U.S. state to phase out gas-fueled furnaces and water heaters in homes. The state plans to ban the sale of all new natural gas-fired space heaters and water-heating appliances by 2030, under a proposal unanimously approved by the California Air Resources Board last week. The plan directed state agencies to draft a rule for phasing out gas-fueled appliances that will be up for a final vote in 2025. The proposal is part of a road map of commitments that the state is pursuing to shrink its carbon footprint and comply with federal air-quality standards. The state is targeting a carbon-free grid by 2045.

The proposal does not include gas stoves, but about 50 cities and towns in California, including Los Angeles and San Francisco, have adopted regulations that ban or discourage the use of gas-fueled stoves in new buildings.

France to halt export financing for fossil fuels in 2023... France will not provide gov’t export financing guarantees for all fossil fuel projects starting in 2023, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire announced Monday. The action is linked to French commitments at the UN climate conference in Glasgow last year to end public financing for some fossil fuel projects at the end of 2022. The budget for 2023 states that export guarantees will no longer be given from January for all upstream and downstream fossil fuel projects.