Evening Report | Sept. 20, 2021

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Corn ratings improve as harvest advances… Corn harvest advanced six percentage points over the past week to 10% complete as of Sunday, which was right in line with expectations and a point more advanced than the five-year average. Harvest is running ahead of the average pace in most major Midwest producing states. Today’s update shows 93% of the crop was dented and 57% of it was mature as of Sunday, which is four and 10 percentage points ahead of the respective five-year averages. Recent warm, dry and windy weather has quickly readied crops for harvest.

Condition ratings improved over the past week, with USDA now rating 59% of the crop “good” or “excellent,” a one-point gain for the week. But condition ratings fade in importance as harvest advances.

Soybean harvest progress off to a pretty standard start… As of Sept. 19, 58% of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves, which is well ahead of 48% for the five-year average. In its initial soybean harvest update of the season, USDA reports 6% of the crop has been cut, which is in line with the five-year average, but a point more than analysts polled by Reuters expected.

As was the case with corn, USDA’s G/E rating unexpectedly climbed a percentage point to 58%. But again, condition ratings take on lesser importance once harvest is underway.

Cotton harvest slightly slower than normal… Cotton harvest advanced four percentage points over the past week to 9% complete, which is two points behind the average for this point in the season. In top-producing Texas, 19% of the crop has been picked vs. the usual 17% for this point in the season. Harvest is just getting started in Georgia.

USDA once again rated 64% of the U.S. cotton crop G/E, though that did mask a one-point shift from the “excellent” to the “good” category. Conditions remain well above year-ago levels when USDA gave 45% of the crop top marks.

More than a fifth of the winter wheat crop has been planted… Twenty-one percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Sept. 19, which was a nine-point advance from last week, three points ahead of the five-year average but a point shy of expectations. Kansas has seeded 13% of its crop, which is two points ahead of the five-year average. Today’s update shows 3% of the crop has emerged, which compares to 2% on average. Dryness is an increasing concern in the region—in terms of planting, emergence and crop development.

Slow soybean planting in Brazil… Hot, dry weather has many Brazilian producers holding off on soybean planting. As of late last week, producers had only planted 0.1% of their crop, reports AgRural. High production costs this season make farmers even less willing to take on the threat of needing to replant. Farmers in Brazil’s center-south have planted 22% of their full-season corn crop, the consultancy reports. That lags last season by eight percentage points. 

Eye-opening primaries result in the appointment of a new ag minister for Argentina… After a disappointing showing in a primary election for Center-left President Alberto Fernandez, he named a new ag minister: Julian Dominguez. Dominguez is an ally of Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and previously served as farm minister from 2009 to 2011 during her presidency. Farmers in the country do not have a particularly favorable opinion of the de Kirchner’s rein and the limits on exports it entailed. Farm leaders say they will push the new minister to roll back its cap on beef exports that limits shipments to 50% of the usual volume. Farm leaders say they will see how things unfold under the change in authorities before moving forward with any protests.  

Hot, dry weather for southern Europe clips corn and spring barley yield prospects… The European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS lowered its yield forecasts for spring barley and corn, citing the impact of heat and dryness in southern Europe. MARS details that large areas of Italy, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece and southern Turkey saw crops clipped by hot, dry weather. On the other hand, summer crop yield forecasts in western and central Europe remained positive. The crop monitoring service now estimates the average EU corn yield at 7.78 metric tons per hectare, which would be 6.5% under last year’s average and 0.3% under the five-year average. MARS expects the EU spring barley crop to yield an average of 4.23 MT per hectare, which would be a 5.7% drop from year-ago and a 2.9% decline vs. the prior five-year average.

Regan says new WOTUS will maintain pre-2015 exemptions for agriculture… Exemptions will remain in place for farming and ranching activities as part of EPA’s rewrite of its waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) definition, EPA Administrator Michael Regan told the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture at a virtual meeting. “Our forthcoming rule will propose retaining that pre-2015 exclusion,” Regan said. He said normal farming, silviculture and ranching activities defined by Section 44 of the Clean Water Act that could take place in a jurisdictional waterway or wetlands won’t require a permit, adding that includes “common activities like plowing, seeding and minor drainage as well as activities like construction and maintenance of irrigation ditches.”

EPA initially announced plans to revise WOTUS and restore protections in place prior to the 2015 WOTUS implementation in June, putting many in the ag sector on edge. Regan has emphasized that EPA is aiming for clarity, for certainty and for a durable rule. Today, he said EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers will neither be reinstating the Trump-era Navigable Waters Protection Rule nor the 2015 Obama-era Clean Water Rule. Rather, the agencies are working on a proposal reflecting pre-2015 regulations updated with Supreme Court Decisions.

Regan said EPA hopes release that foundational proposal sometime in November. A second rule building on that foundational one should come during the winter, Regan said.

NEW Cooperative offline due to cybersecurity incident… Farm services provider NEW Cooperative Inc. said its systems are offline today to contain a “cybersecurity” incident. The Iowa-based cooperative operates grain storage elevators, buys and sells grain and owns technology platforms for farmers. NEW Cooperative in a statement said that the threat was “successfully contained and the cooperative is working with law enforcement and data security experts to investigate and remediate the situation.”

OIG to audit EPA RIN market... The EPA Office of the Inspector General (OIG) said Friday it will be conducting an audit on EPA’s oversight of the market for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). OIG said its objective is to determine if EPA’s “moderated transaction system and quality assurance program include controls to identify and reduce the generation and trading of invalid RINs that are used to demonstrate compliance with renewable fuel standards as overseen by the EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality.” OIG said its goal was “identifying and correcting procedural or automated systems problems that increase fraud risks and reduce the positive environmental impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standards program.” OIG said it would be looking for information on the following from EPA offices, including:

• Laws, regulations, policies, and guidance applicable to the moderated transaction system and quality assurance program.
• Access to the EPA’s moderated transaction system to pull RIN data.
• Access to demonstrate and test the moderated transaction system’s automated controls; and
• Access to quality assurance program records.

Senate parliamentarian nixes Democrats’ immigration proposal as part of reconciliation... The Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, on Sunday said existing rules will not allow Democrats to include in their social safety net bill a pathway to citizenship for up to 8 million immigrants. She said the proposed pathway to citizenship is a policy change with implications that far exceed what can be done through this legislative process, which is supposed to deal with issues directly related to the budget and is not supposed to include major policy changes.

Democrats are next expected to pitch a backup plan that would provide a similar pathway to citizenship but would probably not cover as many people. Find more details.

CO2 supplies run low in Britain; meat processors fretting they may need to halt production… Britain’s meat processors are warning they will run out of carbon dioxide withing five days, the industry’s lobby group warned on Monday. If that occurs, it could force them to stop production. The gas is used to stun animals before slaughter, in addition to being used in the vacuum packing of food products to extend shelf life and for carbonation in beverages. The shortage comes after a surge in gas prices forced several domestic energy suppliers out of business. Some fertilizer plants that also make CO2 as a byproduct have closed their doors. And a shortage of truck drivers related to Covid-19 and Brexit have further clipped supplies.

Signal to Noise podcast… Pro Farmer policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer and AgriTalk host Chip Flory discuss the southern border crisis, the latest on the battle over the infrastructure bill(s), and more. Listen here.