Corn producers: Advance old-crop, new crop sales... Prices broke below the prior low, an indication the summer rally may have come to an end. Rain chances have increased across the Corn Belt as well, weighing on prices. Weather markets are known for being volatile and the current bull run looks to have run its course. We advise producers to sell 20% of old-crop stocks. You should now be 90% sold on 2025 production. We advise cash only marketers to sell 20% of expected 2026 production, bringing total sales to 50% forward sold. We advise hedgers to cover half of the $4.80 puts (20% of production), which closed at 23 5/8¢ for a 7¢ loss. We also advise hedgers to sell 30% of expected production to get to 40% forward sold with an additional 20% covered via December $4.80 puts.
Soybean producers: Advance new-crop sales... The summer rally in November soybeans has been negated after today’s heavy selling pressure. Seasonals suggest lower prices in August and September. China remains slow to add to new-crop purchases and are behind pace to hit the 25 MMT goal while tensions between Washington and Beijing have picked up in recent days. We advise hedgers and cash only marketers to sell another 10% of new-crop soybeans, bringing the total to 55% sold for cash only marketers while hedgers are 35% forward sold with an additional 40% of expected production hedged with put options.
Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Wet forecasts called the tune on Wednesday, sending November soybeans down nearly 30 cents to end back below the $12 a bushel threshold, with product markets down hard despite a further 7% surge in crude oil prices with no end in sight to renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran. The price action points to the possibility a summer rally may have come to an end (see our marketing updates above).
Forecasts call for rains for much of Iowa and neighboring states along with the eastern Corn Belt, with some precipitation also seen for the far western Corn Belt and northern Plains. Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc., in an assessment of July weather early Wednesday, noted some of the driest areas of the northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt are due to get beneficial rain and see some temporary cooling late this week, followed by less frequent and less significant rain with a couple bouts of warmer-than-usual weather separated by more seasonable temperatures.
“The environment will not be ideal, but production cuts are not likely to be hugely significant since there will be some timely rain during reproduction for corn and the heart of the Midwest has not been exposed to much adversity other than a cool and wet spring,” Lerner said.
The forecasts appeared to negate the boost seen Tuesday following a larger-than-expected deterioration in USDA weekly crop condition ratings for corn and soybeans.
Fed holds, bond market reacts: The Federal Reserve stuck to the script, leaving rates unchanged Wednesday afternoon. Fed-funds futures traders had priced in a better than 1-in-3 chance of a quarter-point rate hike, making for the most uncertain backdrop in years. Markets have tended to reflect strong pre-meeting consensus.
Still, there were three dissents, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan voting in favor of a quarter-point rate hike. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in a news conference, reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing down inflation which has remained stubbornly above the 2% target for five years. He said a rise in real, or inflation-adjusted, market interest rates had done some of the Fed’s job for it. Stocks initially bounced higher after the Fed decision, but turned south before the close as long-term Treasury yields rose – a move some investors argued was a sign the Fed had missed an opportunity to deliver a hike and strengthen its inflation-fighting bona fides under Warsh.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell because the market “ thinks the Fed is taking its time,” said DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, in a CNBC interview. “And the long bond yield went up significantly after the press conference, because the bond market vigilantes are saying, ‘If you really want us to believe your rhetoric, you’ve got to start acting.’”
Bunge’s big earnings: Grain industry giant Bunge Global boosted its full-year adjusted profit forecast on Wednesday after topping Wall Street estimates for second-quarter earnings, Reuters reported. The results were lifted by robust processing margins for soybeans and other oilseeds and strong demand.
Soaring crude oil prices, after global supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, sent soybean oil prices sharply higher in the quarter, bolstering margins for the world’s largest oilseed processor, the report said, while Bunge’s expanded processing footprint following its acquisition last year of grain handler Viterra lifted volumes.
Bunge’s adjusted earnings in the quarter ended June 30 rose to $2 from $1.31 in the same quarter a year ago, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.95. Bunge raised its full-year 2026 earnings forecast to $9.25 to $9.75 a share, up from a previous forecast of $9 to $9.50.
Shares, however, fell more than 8%. Reuters noted that Bunge’s grain merchandising and milling unit results were weaker than anticipated, and Bunge warned that its 2026 outlook for the segment was lower than its previous forecast.
“Though the quarter was solid and the outlook raised, we do see items that could be viewed as slightly disappointing,” JP Morgan analyst Thomas Palmer said in a research note.
California E15 regs proposal: California regulators will consider proposed E15 regulations on Sept. 24 that are needed to fully implement state sales of gasoline mixed with 15% ethanol, according to an Agri-Pulse report. Top ethanol trade groups Growth Energy and the Renewable Fuels Association praised the move by the California Air Resources Board. California last year became the last U.S. state to legalize E15, though sales have yet to begin, the report said. The proposed rule would set the technical standards necessary to get the fuel flowing, Growth Energy said, according to the report.
Russia proposes armed grain ships: Russian officials have proposed arming grain ships with machine guns and mobile missile launchers to counter Ukrainian drone attacks, Bloomberg reported. The possibilities include temporarily equipping bulk carriers with armor plating, sandbags, and anti-drone mesh, and having soldiers escort the vessels for the first part of their voyage, the report said. Russia’s grain trade is being threatened by Ukrainian drone attacks, with trade suspended in the Sea of Azov, which has helped push wheat to a two-year high. Since last week, shipments from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in Odesa have also been halted following Russian military strikes.