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Pressure is building on the Trump administration to deliver progress on agricultural trade when Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to the U.S. next week for a summit meeting.
In a letter released Thursday, the American Soybean Association specifically expressed support for a U.S.-China Board of Trade that includes soybeans as a non-sensitive good, called for eliminating China’s 10% retaliatory duty on U.S. soybeans, and asked the administration to ensure any future implementation of Section 301 port fees on Chinese ships does not disrupt or diminish U.S. export sales. Xi and President Donald Trump are slated to meet on Sept. 24.
- “Soybean farmers need consistency and predictability in one of our most important export markets, and we hope the upcoming meeting with President Xi delivers further progress toward that goal,” said ASA President and Ohio soybean farmer Scott Metzger. “That means ensuring China fulfills its purchase commitments, addressing barriers that put U.S. soybeans at a competitive disadvantage, and working toward a durable trading relationship.”
Metzger said soybean farmers were encouraged by China’s steady stream of recent purchases. Sales have amounted to more than half the 25 million metric tons that the administration has said Beijing committed to purchasing in calendar years 2026, 2027 and 2028.
Earlier this week, Rep. Donald Davis, D-N.C., a member of the House Agriculture Committee, sent a letter to Trump pressing for more clarity on China’s soybean purchase timeline and the elimination of Beijing’s 10% tariff on imports of U.S. soybeans.
- “I respectfully ask you to insist on a verifiable, structured timeline for China to fulfill its annual 25-million-metric-ton soybean purchasing commitment for 2026 and its subsequent annual commitments through 2028,” Davis wrote.
“I further urge you to press for the removal of China’s additional 10 percent tariff on U.S.soybeans, which has discouraged Chinese commercial buyers from purchasing American soybeans and contributed to their reliance on South American suppliers,” he said. “Chinese state-owned enterprises have continued to purchase U.S. soybeans following the agreement announced by your administration. Still, these purchases are not a substitute for sustained access to China’s broader commercial market.”
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said earlier this month that both countries would make “some announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers” during the summit, without providing specifics.
Market recap: A stronger dollar and weaker oil prices put pressure on grain futures Thursday, though wet weather in the western Corn Belt and the potential for harvest delays limited downside for corn and, particularly, soybeans. The latter have seen support as meal futures continued to hit 2.5 year highs on ideas processors are short on supply, a situation exacerbated by wet weather.
- November soybeans finished ¾-cent lower at $13.19 ¾.
- December soybean meal jumped $5.70 to $371.30 for another 2.5 year high.
- December soybean oil fell 52 points to 69.15 cents.
- December corn fell 3 ¾ cents to $5.30 ½.
- December soft red winter wheat fell 3 ¾ cents to $7.27.
- December hard red winter wheat declined 5 cents to $7.94 ½.
- December spring wheat gave up 3 ½ cents to $7.52 ½.
- December cotton futures dropped 219 points to 82.17 cents.
- October live cattle fell $2.80 to $215.65, ending near the daily low.
- November feeder cattle lost $4.45 to $318.65, near the session low.
- October lean hog futures rose $0.225 to $78.90, after hitting another 15-month low early on.
Rains continue: World Weather Inc. on Thursday said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through next Tuesday. Although fieldwork will be slowed, most crops are not ready to be harvested and where crops are ready to be harvested in the south, rain should be infrequent enough to allow harvesting to advance well overall, the forecaster said. At least some additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture.
Some heavy rain and a significant bolstering of soil moisture will occur from eastern South Dakota and Iowa to Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Ohio today into Saturday and some local flooding may result, World Weather said. Additional rain in a large part of that region Sunday into Tuesday may cause increased flooding. Drier weather will resume next Wednesday into Oct. 1.
China cuts Treasury holdings: China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen to the lowest since 2008, U.S. government data showed this week – a change that the Financial Times said underlines a shift in Beijing’s management of its reserves and a deepening rift between the world’s two biggest economies. It also reflects starkly different economic conditions faced by both countries, with the U.S. running a massive fiscal deficit amid high inflation while China battles sluggish economic growth and deflationary pressures as it runs record trade surpluses, the report noted. Previously, Beijing tended to roll its surpluses largely into U.S. Treasuries.
Bridge hit: Russia has damaged a bridge in the Odesa region, significantly limiting Ukraine’s ability to transport grain to its Danube river ports, Ukrainian state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia said on Thursday, according to Reuters. The company did not say when the bridge was damaged or how severe the damage was, the report said, noting that Russia has attacked it almost weekly since the beginning of the war. Most cargo shipments, including grain, have been rerouted through Danube river ports after Russian attacks effectively blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, which had handled 90% of the country’s exports.
Ag panel jockeying: Politico reports that Rep. Jim Costa of California is running to become the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, setting up a clash against Rep. Shontel Brown, D-Ohio, who is eying her own bid to lead the party on the committee. The panel’s current ranking member, Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., will leave Congress after an unsuccessful run for Minnesota’s open Senate seat this year. Politico notes that a shift in the committee’s leadership would carry significant ramifications for farm and nutrition policy, especially if lawmakers punt farm bill negotiations into next year.
‘Potato drama’: Europe faces a potato shortage that could lead to smaller, more expensive chips as a result of summer heat waves that stunted crop growth, the Financial Times reported. An analysis by the nonprofit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimated that extreme weather wiped out around 3.1 million tones of potatoes worth between 400 million to 620 million euros ($459 million to $712 million), the report said, in addition to around 3.6 million tons that weren’t grown after last year’s bumper harvest.
- “We’ve gone from a record high to a record low in one year, if [the estimates] materialize,” Craig Elliott, market analyst for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Expana, told the FT. “It’s potato drama.”