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It was clear heading into last week’s Trump-Xi summit that the elimination of Beijing’s 10% tariff on imports of U.S. soybeans was at the top of the wish list for soy complex bulls. So it was no surprise to see soybeans stumble after they were left off a list released late Sunday enumerating a number of other U.S. agricultural goods from corn and wheat to meat and dairy that are set to see tariff relief.
The sharp selloff may have felt a bit overdone but comes after speculative traders had built up huge long positions, leaving the market vulnerable to disappointment. In a statement, the American Soybean Association, which had specifically listed the elimination of the 10% tariff as a top priority ahead of the summit, said in a statement that it was “disappointed U.S. soybeans were not included among the agricultural products receiving additional tariff relief from China.”
The Trump administration has said China committed to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year in 2026, 2027 and 2028 following the summit meeting last fall in South Korea. China is estimated to have met more than half of its 2026 purchase commitment so far. But the purchases have been made by state-owned enterprises who aren’t required to pay the tariff. The levy effectively keeps private crushers and others from buying U.S. soybeans – a move that observers see as a deliberate effort by Beijing to control the flow of imports.
“As soybean farmers look to strengthen and expand markets, China’s annual commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans provides critical stability, and we expect those commitments to be fully met,” ASA President Scott Metzger, an Ohio soybean farmer, said. “China remains an important market for U.S. soybeans, and we want to see a strong trading relationship that allows more customers in China to purchase our soybeans.”
Market recap: Soybeans felt the brunt of a Monday selloff, but corn and wheat also saw selling pressure. A firm U.S. dollar alongside surging Treasury yields were also a factor in the broader weakness. Cattle and hog futures also remained under pressure.
- November soybeans fell 30 ¾ cents to $12.88 ¼, hitting a three month low.
- December soybean meal dropped $11.60 to $359.40, while December soyoil lost 18 points to 67.66 cents.
- December corn fell 5 ¼ cents to $5.23.
- December soft red winter wheat finished at $6.88 ¾, down 14 ½ cents, hitting a five-week low.
- December cotton rose 15 points to 82.86 cents.
- December live cattle fell $1.35 to $220.80. November feeders were down $2.70 to $329.275, after hitting a two-month high in early action.
- December lean hog futures closed 62.5 cents lower at $68.40
Dyed-diesel alternative to export ban?: The White House is considering taking regulatory steps that would allow wider sales of red-dyed diesel in an effort to bring down prices, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the discussions. The report described the proposal as a leading alternative to a diesel export ban, which President Donald Trump has spoken favorably about but has faced significant pushback from the oil industry and others.
The proposal would expand the circumstances under which red-dyed diesel, which is generally reserved for off-road uses such as farming and is exempt from most federal fuel taxes, could be sold for broader use, the report said. Under current federal rules, the tax on highway diesel is 24.4 cents per gallon, while dyed diesel is exempt from that tax but remains subject to a 0.1-cent-per-gallon charge that funds the federal Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund, Reuters noted.
- Experts questioned how much relief the approach would bring. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan, in a post on X, wrote: “the White House is floating distributing more dyed diesel. it’s the same ULSD with red dye and no taxes, so it could save on-road users ~60c/gal. but farmers already use dyed diesel and are still paying record prices. taxes aren’t the problem, supply is.”
Crop progress update: Corn and soybean crop conditions held steady the past week, but harvest lagged the expected pace as a result of heavy rains in the western Corn Belt.
- USDA said 57% of the corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week and matching analyst expectations. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) saw a 0.88 point increase, led by gains in Illinois (1.02 points) and Nebraska (0.71 point).
- Corn harvest was pegged at 18% complete, a percentage point below the average estimate and in line with the five-year average. Corn harvest in Iowa was just 5% complete, lagging the five-year average of 10%.
- USDA said 58% of soybeans were rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and matching expectations. The Pro Farmer CCI for soybeans edged up 0.56 point to 355.25. No states saw sizable moves from the previous week, but most of the Corn Belt states saw minor increases with the exceptions of Iowa and Nebraska. Read more about the latest Pro Farmer CCI readings.
- The soybean harvest was 17% complete, behind the average estimate of 19% but in line with the five-year average. Iowa was well behind its usual pace at just 3% complete versus a five-year average of 17% at this time of year. Arkansas’s harvest was found 61% complete, well ahead of the five-year average of 35%.
- USDA said 27% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 17% the previous week and just a percentage point behind the average guess. Plantings continue to lage the five-year average at 34%.
Mexico trade deal near? Politico’s Morning Ag newsletter reports the Trump administration is eager to achieve a trade breakthrough ahead of the midterms and has turned its attention to Mexico, telling the country’s officials it wants to announce an early harvest deal before the midterms. Negotiators have been talking as part of the six-year review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The report noted that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum earlier this month said talks have been progressing. Politico said Mexico has taken several steps to address longstanding U.S. trade complaints, including new steps to vet foreign investments in sensitive industries.
Politico reported that some sticking points remain, particularly around agriculture. U.S. lawmakers want a deal to address seasonal imports of fruits and vegetables that compete with U.S. growers during their harvest periods. And the U.S. wants similar protections for some generic meat and cheese names, the report added.
Mexico is the top export destination for U.S. agricultural products. It’s the biggest foreign buyer of U.S. corn and wheat and second-largest buyer of soybeans after China.
New disease? A new corn leaf disease has been identified in Michigan, reports Brownfield Ag Network, and researchers say it’s likely widespread in the Great Lakes region.
- “We’re finding it pretty much in every field that we walk into at this point in time,” Michigan State University plant pathologist Marty Chilvers told the broadcaster, “It resembles white spots on the corn plant, they’re about 1/4 to 1/2 inch in size.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Ontario, Wisconsin, but it’s about just getting out and looking for it,” he said.
Chilvers said the infestation appears to be maize white spot, which was last reported in Florida in 1999, but is prevalent as a cool-season fungus in southern Brazil and other parts of the world. Sequencing hasn’t officially confirmed what fungus species it is, the report noted, with Chilvers encouraging growers to submit samples if they see similar symptoms to help determine how widespread the disease is and to identify it.
Corteva to dismantle loyalty program as part of settlement: Corteva will dismantle its existing pesticides loyalty program as part of a settlement agreement with the Federal Trade Commission announced Monday. The agency had sued Corteva on antitrust grounds over its distributor loyalty programs. Regulators alleged the scheme improperly blocked lower-priced generic pesticides from reaching farmers. Under the 10-year agreement, Corteva will pay $35 million to 12 state co-plaintiffs and accept strict limits on distributor rebate terms.
The deal follows an $85 million settlement in a related farmer class-action lawsuit and precedes Corteva’s planned October 1 spinoff of its seed business as Vylor. Meanwhile, FTC litigation against co-defendant Syngenta remains ongoing. Read more at The Scoop.
Check out this week’s Pro Farmer Podcast. We take a close look at the Trump-Xi summit, wet weather in the western Corn Belt, this week’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and the continued debate over a potential U.S. ban on diesel exports.
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