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“There’s nothing like price to change sentiment” is a market adage often attributed to legendary technical analyst Helene Meisler. It’s worth keeping in mind when parsing the results of the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer released Tuesday, which showed farmer sentiment improved in July after three straight months of decline.
The nationwide survey of 405 farmers, conducted between July 13 and 17, coincided with the first summer rally for corn in three years as grains and the soy complex found support on weather worries and other factors. The index rose to 126 points in July from a June reading of 113. Both subindexes also rose: The Index of Current Conditions was up 20 points, while the Index of Future Expectations increased by 11 points.
The survey found that high input costs remain the top concern, with 46% listing it as their biggest worry. When asked about the biggest challenge to success in the next five to ten years, 30% indicated crop or livestock prices. Only 13% of respondents indicated their farm operations were better off financially in July compared to a year ago, but 23% indicated they expect to be better off in a year than they are now, while 24% expected to be worse off.
Cash rent expectations: Many operators and landlords will be making cash rent decisions in the next few months. With that in mind, corn, soybean, wheat and cotton producers were asked whether they expected cash rents to decline, remain about the same, or rise. Around 19% expected an increase, while only 7% looked for a decline and the vast majority expected them to remain about the same.
- Farmers who expect rents to increase were asked how big of a jump they expected. Most looked for a rise of between 5% and 10%.
Meanwhile, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined from 124 in June to 119 in July, and the long-term index decreased from 166 to 152. Alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.
- “Overall, the July results point to improved near-term sentiment, but producers remain concerned about costs, commodity prices, and longer-term profitability,” said economists Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Market recap: Rains moving across the Midwest along with favorable forecasts saw grains and, in particular, soybeans under renewed pressure after Monday’s bounce.
- December corn fell 7 cents to $4.65 ½, giving back most of the previous session’s gains.
- November soybeans fell 14 ½ cents to $11.77 ¾, hitting a four-week low.
- September soft red winter wheat fell 12 ½ cents to $6.38 ½.
- December cotton dropped 11 points to 82.46 cents.
- October live cattle rose $1.175 to $227.90, while September feeders gained $3.60 to $346.15.
- October lean-hog futures rose 67.5 cents to $84.35.
Ethanol blend rate record: The average ethanol content of gasoline sold in the U.S. hit a record 11.29% in May as petroleum prices reached their highest monthly averages of the Iran War Renewable Fuels Association Chief Economist Scott Richman noted on Tuesday, citing Energy Information Administration figures. For the 12 months through May, the ethanol blend rate in gasoline rose to 10.57%, the highest annual share ever.
Ethanol-blending economics drove the increase, Richman said. He explained in a post:
Ethanol was priced at a discount to gasoline blendstock of nearly $1.50 per gallon on average in May, based on futures contracts. Additionally, the price of renewable identification numbers (RINs), credits which are used for compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard, strengthened this spring and surpassed the price of ethanol for the first time ever. That is, since each gallon of denatured ethanol is sold with a RIN attached, the net price of the physical ethanol has effectively been negative.
The vast majority of gasoline sold in the U.S. contains 10% ethanol, a blend known as E10. During May, the ethanol content in E10 provided a fuel cost savings of $0.14 per gallon of finished gasoline, along with $0.21 of RIN value to the blender. In gasoline containing 15% ethanol, known as E15, the fuel cost savings was $0.21 per gallon, and the RIN value was $0.31.
Oil slumps, stocks soar on Iran optimism: It was rally time on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 logging its first record finish since June and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting an all-time high finish as oil futures slumped to their lowest in four weeks. The moves came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Tuesday morning that a deal with Iran could be reached as early as today.
- “We are in talks with the Iranians,” he said. “There is a chance that we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.”
Ukraine’s transport alternatives: Alternative grain export routes from Ukraine are expected to hit required capacity at the end of August at the earliest, the country’s agriculture minister said, according to Reuters. He warned that they would cover only half of the volumes handled by Black Sea ports disrupted by Russian attacks. Russia has intensified missile and drone attacks on foreign-flagged civilian vessels in the southern Odesa port hub, which handles most of Ukraine’s grain shipments, the report noted, endangering around half of this year’s grain and oilseeds’ expected total.
- “A significant amount of production – specifically, just over 30 million tons – will not be exported to international markets unless this issue is resolved,” the minister, Taras Vysotskyi, told Reuters.
In July, Ukraine recorded 35 attacks on vessels in ports and 22 on those at sea, as well as 67 strikes at port facilities, Reuters said, citing the country’s infrastructure ministry. That compares with 14 attacks on vessels in all of 2025. As a result, shipowners have suspended calls at the ports around Odesa and no vessels entered for almost two weeks as Ukraine’s summer harvest season enters full swing, the report said.
Last chance on farm bill: Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman, R-Ark., told reporters on Capitol Hill that his proposed legislation is likely the last opportunity to get a farm bill passed in 2026, Agri-Pulse reported. The committee is scheduled to conduct a markup of the package, which includes language to allow year-round sales of E15, on Thursday. “The idea of coming [back from recess], getting it out of committee then, conferencing it with the House, and then getting it voted on in the House and Senate…I think that will be very, very difficult,” he said. The Senate begins a five-week recess next week.
ADM raises profit outlook: Processing giant Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. on Tuesday raised its outlook for 2026 profit for a second time on optimism over the biofuels environment and strong commercial and operational execution, Bloomberg reported. Shares rose over 2%. Second-quarter adjusted earnings beat Wall Street expectations. ADM last week announced plans to expand oilseed processing capacity at four U.S. facilities to take advantage of increased biofuels demand spurred by U.S. policies. Soaring fuel prices as a result of the Iran war have led to several countries boosting biofuel initiatives.
- “We think that the favorable margin backdrop across biofuels will continue – we see that in policies around the world,” said CEO Juan Luciano on a conference call with analysts. “There certainly has been a disruption in the energy markets that has benefited us this year.”
Tyson’s beef blues: Tyson Foods lowered its annual profit outlook as it acknowledged high beef prices likely won’t come down soon, Food Dive reported. The company reported an operating loss of $138 million in its fiscal third quarter Monday, while sales volumes in the beef segment fell 15.9% and prices rose 12.1%. The Trump administration’s decision last month to open the southern border to imports of Mexican cattle won’t be a quick fix, said CEO Donnie King.
- “To be clear, the reopening of the Mexican border will not solve the entire gap of beef losses we are currently seeing,” King said, according to Food Dive. “We are not waiting passively for the cattle cycle to turn, and we continue to focus on improving the variables within our control.”
Tyson last fall closed a large beef processing plant in Nebraska and reduced shifts at another facility in Texas.
Overlooked stat tells a story: Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford spotted a telling statistic in an annual USDA report on farm expenditures. It showed that for the first time in a data series going back 41 years, livestock producers in 2025 spent more on animal purchases than feed. As Langford explains, it’s a figure that reflects a number of unique market forces at work, including surging consumer demand for protein and cheap grain prices, as well as the slow pace in rebuilding the cattle herd. Check it out: For first time on record, farmers spent more buying livestock than feed
Floating dairy farm for sale: Floating Farm Rotterdam, described as the world’s first floating dairy farm, is up for sale after redevelopment at its port location in Rotterdam and an emissions dispute tied to replacement livestock flooring, according to a report by In Food, a U.K.-based food processing and packaging news site. The three-story floating structure opened in May as an urban dairy operation that combined housing for cows, automated milking, manure management, processing, storage and local sales, the report noted, and currently accommodates 28 Meuse-Rhine-Issel cows. It can be moved by water to another site.
Founders Peter and Minke van Wingerden invested approximately €4 million ($4.6 million) in the project, which produces milk, yogurt, and cheese, according to In Food. Dairy processing and cheese ripening take place within the same compact structure as the livestock operation. The report said the farm’s permission to remain at the Rotterdam port site is due to expire as the surrounding area is prepared for housing.