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A brutal end to October for the stock market cast a cloud over the ag markets Friday, particularly live cattle futures (see below), as investors harshly punished tech companies over shrinking cash flows resulting from heavy spending on artificial intelligence. Intel shares plunged 28.6% – its largest ever daily drop – on Friday after the chipmaker said it doesn’t expect to see positive free cash flow in 2027, while Amazon dropped 1.4% but finished well off its session low after reporting negative free cash flow of $42.4 billion in the 12 months ending September, Barron’s noted. That comes after Google parent Alphabet Inc. got punished Thursday after reporting a third-quarter cash outflow. The Friday selloff saw the Big Tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100 briefly tested correction territory before finishing just shy of the 10% pullback from the record high set earlier this month.
The drop came “as the market stopped rewarding AI spending simply for being large and started demanding evidence that the returns will justify the bill,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, in a Substack post.
The Nasdaq-100 lost 3.5% on the day, while the broader Nasdaq ended the day down 2.9%, the S&P 500 shed 1.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 572.25 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq lost 5.3% in October, its worth month since March 2025.
Weekly market recap: Soybean futures kicked off the week with losses after Luis Inacio Lula da Silva defied expectations to win re-election in Brazil’s presidential runoff, sparking a historic currency slide that makes Brazilian supplies more attractive on the world market. Favorable weather saw soybean harvest move into the home stretch and corn harvest continue to catch up, exerting hedge pressure on markets. The slide toward harvest lows brought improved demand for corn, while wheat futures saw a modest bounce Thursday off multi-month lows on a report that China was making inquiries about soft red winter wheat purchases. Cattle rallied after a friendly Cattle on Feed report before running into heavy profit taking. Nearby hog futures fell to a six-year low on continued cash weakness as traders looked for a “washout” bottom.
- December corn fell 3 ½ cents to end at $4.47 ¾, its lowest close in four months as it logged a weekly decline of 8 ¼ cents. Corn has seen a bearish weekly low close every Friday in October.
- January soybeans finished ½ cent lower at $12.34 ¼, down 34 ¼ cents on the week. December soybean meal fell $4.70 to $324.60, hitting a two-month low. December soybean oil rose 26 points to 65.90 cents, trimming its weekly loss to 93 points.
- December soft red winter wheat fell ¼ cent to $6.03 ½, losing 21 ½ cents for the week.
- December hard red winter wheat lost a penny to $6.44 ¼, for a weekly loss of 20 ¼ cents.
- December spring wheat ticked down ¾ cent to close at $6.23 ¾, down 17 ¾ cents for the week.
- December cotton fell 67 points to 77.83 cents, down 237 points for the week.
- December live cattle fell $5.35 to $220.95, hitting a three-week low and logging a weekly loss of $10.175 as a steep selloff in the stock market bled over into livestock. November feeders dropped $8.70 to $337.775, hitting a three-week low and losing $10.35 for the week.
- December lean hog futures ended $0.95 lower at $58.875, posting a weekly loss of $6.70 in a washout that saw the nearby trade at a six-year low.
Green Plains announces 45Z deal… Omaha-based ethanol producer Green Plains on Friday said it reached an agreement to sell Clean Fuel Production Tax Credits, also known as 45Z tax credits, worth up to $325 million. In a news release, the company said the agreement with an unidentified party provides for the transfer of a minimum of $250 million of 45Z credits expected to be generated in 2026 and that the buyers would purchase additional credits up to a total of $325 million, with an option to purchase an additional $30 million, subject to their generation and availability. Green Plains said it will receive $140 million of cash in the fourth quarter for 45Z tax credits generated through June 30, 2026. Credits generated in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 will be transferred and monetized in the first half of 2027, following completion of required compliance reporting and satisfaction of applicable closing conditions.
“This agreement illustrates the value we’ve built into our low-carbon platform and converts that value into meaningful, predictable cash flow,” said Chris Osowski, Green Plains president and chief executive officer.
Syngenta earnings dented… Syngenta on Friday reported lower sales and profit during the third quarter, Reuters reported, with the company saying summer heatwaves in Europe hit demand for its crop protection products and cash-strapped farmers became more cautious about buying new seeds and sprays. Higher fertilizer, fuel and energy costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East, along with rising interest rates, made farmers delay spending on sprays and seeds, Reuters said. Syngenta, controlled by Chinese state-owned firm Sinochem, said sales fell 10% to $5.2 billion as it also exited lower margin businesses like its grains trading operation and felt pricing pressure from generic rivals. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization were $800 million during the period, down 2% from a year earlier. Reuters reported this week how Syngenta’s advisers are targeting a valuation of at least $66 billion for its Hong Kong market listing, likely to be completed early next year.
U.S.-China ‘conflicted co-dependency’... Stephen Roach — a veteran China-watcher and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia — warned at a New York event that the U.S. and China remain trapped in a “conflicted co-dependency,” the South China Morning Post reported. While bilateral summits between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping achieved temporary stability, Roach emphasized they failed to resolve underlying structural frictions like tariffs and sanctions. With both nations facing domestic economic headwinds—including U.S. fuel prices and China’s sluggish housing market—Roach cautioned that these deep-rooted tensions leave the relationship’s long-term path to stability unresolved despite temporary trade truces.