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A surprisingly strong performance in Brazil’s presidential election by Flavio Bolsonaro sent the country’s currency, the real, surging on Monday – providing some support for soy complex futures as the sudden move will likely slow sales by Brazilian farmers. Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won 47% of the votes cast Sunday to 45% for incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Since no candidate won more than 50% of the vote, Bolsonaro and Lula will go head to head in an Oct. 25 runoff election.
The real surged more than 4% versus the dollar. Rates strategist Thierry Wizman of Macquarie said the real and other Brazilian financial markets rallied because Bolsonaro is perceived as more market-friendly, particularly on fiscal policy and deregulation. “As such, his stronger-than-expected performance and the rightward shift in Congress should support the BRL (Brazilian real) and put downward pressure on longer-term local currency yields,” he wrote. “Against this optimism, however, Brazil’s next president will inherit structurally rising mandatory spending requirements, high debt-servicing costs, and this limited budget flexibility.”
That means Bolsonaro, if victorious, will need to offer a credible plan for public finances for the rally to continue, the strategist said.
- Noteworthy: Wizman added that a prospective Bolsonaro win would nearly complete the Trump administration’s effort to bring major Western Hemisphere countries into alignment with the U.S. “Success on this front could bring new agreements on free trade, climate, border and national security, and drug interdiction, etc., thus helping the region as a whole,” Wizman said.
Market recap: Grain futures saw strong overnight gains but corn was unable to remain in positive territory while soybean and wheat futures trimmed their rally. A strong U.S. dollar, with the closely watched ICE U.S. Dollar Index hitting its highest since April 2025, was a headwind for commodities. Improving weather in the western Corn Belt, which should allow harvest to resume after a historically wet September, was also a weight on corn and soybeans.
- December corn fell ½ cent to $4.97 ¼, nearer the session low and closing at a six-week low.
- November soybeans rose 2 ½ cents to $12.80 ¾, ending nearer the daily low.
- December soybean meal shed $0.40 to end at $347.10, hitting a four-week low.
- December soybean oil rose 73 points to 69.35 cents, hitting a three-week high.
- December SRW wheat rose 9 ¼ cents to end at $6.92 ¼, nearer the daily high.
- December HRW wheat gained 7 cents to close at $7.42 ¼.
- December spring wheat futures rose 10 ½ cents to close at $7.08 ½, near the daily high.
- December cotton futures gained 198 points on short covering and bargain buying to end at 80.86 cents, near the daily high.
- December live cattle ended $1.50 lower at $219.975, nearer the daily low. November feeder cattle dropped $1.025 to $330.125.
- December lean hog futures rose 82.5 cents to $70.95, hitting a two-week high on continued short covering and bargain hunting.
Corn conditions deteriorate… Corn and soybean crop conditions both deteriorated over the past week, according to USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, with corn seeing the worst of it amid persistently wet weather in the western Corn Belt.
- USDA said 54% of the corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, had expected the percentage to remain unchanged from the previous week at 57%. USDA said 23% of the crop was harvested, up from 18% a week ago but below the average estimate of 25% and behind the five-year average for this time of year at 27%. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) saw a 2.34 point decline as most states in the central Corn Belt saw conditions weaken. Declines were led by Iowa (0.83 point) and Nebraska (1.77 points).
- USDA said 57% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, down a percentage point from a week ago and also a point below the average guess. Harvest was pegged at 25% complete, up from 17% a week ago and behind the average guess of 27% and the five-year average of 33%. The Pro Farmer CCI for soybeans fell 2.48 points to 352.77. Deterioration in the soybean crop was noted in many of the same states that saw corn ratings fall, though they were often to a smaller degree. Notable outliers that saw improvements were Ohio (0.37 point) and Indiana (0.08 point). See: Pro Farmer CCI shows corn and soybean ratings drop as growing season nears end
- USDA said winter wheat plantings were 36% complete, off a percentage point from the average estimate and up from 27% a week earlier. The five-year average for this time of year is 46%.
Ship reportedly carrying corn sunk in Black Sea… Two people died and others were rescued after a fire on a ship in the Black Sea outside Romania’s territorial waters, with Ukraine blaming Russian drones, Reuters reported. Romania’s interior ministry said 11 crew members were rescued. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said the fire had been caused by Russian drones. Zelensky wrote on X:
- “A horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn and owned by Türkiye. Azerbaijani and Indian citizens were on board. As of now, unfortunately, we know that the ship’s captain was killed. My condolences.”
A round of attacks by Russia on Ukraine port infrastructure in the Odessa region over the weekend helped lift wheat futures on Monday.
Check out this week’s Pro Farmer Podcast: A break in the weather, quality concerns and getting ready for Friday’s WASDE report
Another diesel effort… President Donald Trump is expected to take more action aimed at easing diesel prices Monday, reports said ahead of his appearance in Grand Island, Nebraska. The steps to be announced Monday include a Treasury Department review of certain taxes for diesel, Politico reported. The executive order would also direct states to do more to increase the availability of tax-exempt red-dyed diesel, used in farming, construction and other industries, and to urge that states waive certain fuel taxes, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. The executive actions also include so-called non-enforcement of dyed diesel limitations, with some Republican governors having already taken similar steps on the dyed diesel. The Group of Seven nations on Friday agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and fuel from emergency reserves over the next four months, prioritizing the release of diesel.
Diesel and gasoline prices fell sharply last week but remain highly elevated. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, noted on X that gasoline prices fell 12.5 cents a gallon last week, on average, with road diesel down 14.2 cents a gallon, led by Georgia and Ohio, who are temporarily suspending their fuel taxes. Gas prices in Ohio are down 39 cents from a week ago, Georgia gas prices are down 38 cents, with Ohio down 39 cents. Diesel is down 46 cents in Georgia and 28 cents in Ohio.
Veteran fuel-market analyst Tom Kloza, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, was skeptical additional measures would provide much in the way of further downside.
- “There’s about 105 million barrels of diesel in the country, and there aren’t that many that are red,” he said. So it’s probably really good news if you were the manufacturer of the dye, but otherwise it doesn’t mean much. It’s just a way to grant tax relief on a lot of the product that’s used by farmers.”
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