Evening Report | January 8, 2025

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

Exchange: Forecast rains should limit Argentine crop damage... Rains forecast for mid-January should bring relief to soybeans and corn in Argentina’s core production region, a climatologist at the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange told Reuters. Eduardo Sierra, a meteorological analyst at the exchange, said based to their model, 50-75 millimeters (2 to 3 inches) of rain is expected between Jan. 16-22 in the core production region.

“These rains could greatly limit the impact of the dry weather. They would allow us to get through in better shape to February, when we will see how much rain falls,” he said.
Unlike some previous La Nina patterns, such as an intense one two seasons ago that caused historic crop losses, the current one is more moderate, which should be a silver lining for local farmers.

“This La Nina is not a strong version,” said Sierra, who noted the true extent of the weather pattern will be fully seen in February, when rains usually return to Argentine fields after a seasonally dry and warm January. “It will have an impact, but we don’t expect a catastrophe.”

Barrage of USDA reports coming Friday... Friday will be one of the biggest report days of the year for the grain markets as USDA will release its Annual Production Summary, monthly Supply & Demand Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings. Much of the focus will be on USDA’s “final” crop estimates for corn and soybeans. But Dec. 1 grain stocks have a history of providing market-moving surprises, especially for corn. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.

CME Group to launch HRS wheat futures and options... CME Group plans to launch physically delivered hard red spring wheat futures and options early in the second quarter of this year, pending regulatory approval. HRS wheat futures and options will be listed by and subject to the rules of the Chicago Board of Trade.

CME already runs SRW and HRW wheat futures and options. “Market participants will now be able to manage price risk across every major type of wheat on one exchange and all cleared in a single clearing house,” said John Ricci, CME’s global head of agricultural products.

HRS wheat has been historically traded at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX). Miami International Holdings last year renamed the Minneapolis market as MIAX Futures Exchange after buying MGEX in 2020. MIAX said it would transition the trading and dissemination of market data for MGEX products from CME’s Globex platform to a newly developed MIAX platform.

WOAH urges tighter bird flu controls after U.S. death... More should be done to control the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza among animals to avoid more cases in humans, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) said on Wednesday, following the first death of a U.S. patient from the virus in Louisiana.

“This situation really highlights the importance of managing risk at the animal source, which is really essential to prevent the spread of bird flu and its possible transmission to humans,” WOAH Director General Emmanuelle Soubeyran told Reuters.

Soubeyran called for more investment in monitoring the virus in wild birds and animals to control what she said was an unprecedented outbreak due to its global reach and the number of species infected, notably dairy cattle in the United States. Soubeyran also repeated calls for a wider use of vaccination, in addition to control measures, to avoid a spread of the virus.

“If there is a lack of awareness of the situation, people are more likely to become infected and the virus will be able to circulate between poultry, pigs, cows and wild animals. This is where a mutation (of the virus) will happen and potentially create a pandemic,” she said.

U.S. to build new stockpile of bird flu vaccine for poultry... The U.S. will build a stockpile of bird flu vaccines for poultry that match the strain of the virus circulating in commercial flocks and wild birds, USDA said. The U.S. built a poultry vaccine stockpile after the prior major bird flu outbreak in 2014 and 2015, though the vaccines were never used. Those vaccines expired and were disposed.

“USDA believes it is prudent to again pursue a stockpile that matches current outbreak strains,” the agency said.

Egg and turkey farm groups have called for deploying a vaccine, citing the economic toll for farmers of killing their flocks. However, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has said such deployment would not be possible in the short term, in part due to trade risks. Many countries ban imports of vaccinated poultry over concerns the vaccine could mask the presence of the virus.

FOMC minutes: Fed officials note caution amid new inflation risks... Federal Reserve officials expect inflation to continue slowing this year, but also saw a rising risk that price pressures may remain sticky amid impacts of policies expected from the incoming Trump administration, minutes from the Dec. 17-18 monetary policy meeting showed. Fed officials incorporated “placeholder assumptions” about potential policy changes under incoming President Donald Trump. “A number” of policymakers indicated they also included placeholder assumptions in their updated economic projections.

The minutes noted, “Participants indicated that the committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing. Many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.” Those factors included higher inflation readings, continued strength in spending and reduced downside risks to the outlook for the labor market and economic activity.