Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday and is predicted to quickly strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season before making landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast late this week.
“The storm will be small in size, but potent enough to cause wind damage, flooding and a storm surge impacting southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the far westernmost Florida Panhandle,” said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. in a note. “Cotton in Alabama and northwestern Florida may experience the biggest impact from an agricultural perspective.” He noted excessive rain has already occurred this week in southern Georgia, northern Florida and southeastern Alabama where cotton fiber quality has declined and some of the crop has been strung out of its bolls.
- Meanwhile, Brett Gibbs, equity research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted in a post on X that there are three sizable renewable diesel facilities – Chevron Geismar, DGD Norco and SBR Chalmette – near the storm’s potential path. “Something to watch and could be part of today’s bean oil move…” he wrote. Soybean oil fell sharply in Wednesday’s session.
Market recap: The grain futures market saw corrective pressure today, led lower by the resumption of technical selling in wheat and a stronger U.S. dollar index back near its recent 1.5-year high. Soybean meal posted solid gains for a second session, supported by spreader buying against soybean oil. Live and feeder cattle saw routine corrective pullbacks following Tuesday’s strong gains, though overall fundamentals remain bullish. Lean hog futures saw technical selling resume as cash hog market prices continued to trend downward.
- December corn fell 6 cents to $5.02, near the session low.
- November soybeans fell 5 ½ cents to $12.97 ½, nearer the daily low.
- December soybean meal gained $11.00 to $365.80, near the daily high.
- December soybean oil fell 223 points to 67.58 cents, near the daily low.
- December SRW wheat fell 17 ¾ cents to $6.86 ½, near the daily low.
- December HRW wheat lost 17 ¾ cents to $7.38 ½, near the daily low.
- December spring wheat futures fell 9 ½ cents to $7.10 ¼, nearer the daily low.
- December cotton futures fell 118 points to 80.03 cents, nearer the daily low.
- December live cattle fell $0.325 to $223.775, nearer the daily high.
- November feeder cattle lost $2.475 to $335.80, nearer the session low.
- December lean hog futures fell $1.275 to $69.10, nearer the daily low.
Awaiting WASDE, Crop Production: USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. ET on Friday. Key market expectations across commodities include:
- Corn: Traders watch if USDA lowers new-crop yields toward the 177.8 bu/acre analyst average (down from 178.5). Quarterly stocks rose to 2.095 billion bushels, meaning a yield near 175–176 bu/acre is required to push stocks-to-use below 10%.
- Soybeans: Tighter old-crop ending stocks (315.1M bu) lend support. Yield estimates average 52.9 bu/acre, up 0.1 bushel from USDA’s September estimate.
- Wheat: Production was raised 3 million bushels on Sept. 30.The balance sheet may see l export forecast cuts due to slow demand and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Cotton: Analysts expect a 230,000-bale production cut following Southeastern rain damage, though lack of Chinese demand caps upside.
Read more on what to expect Friday from Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford: October WASDE preview: Key metrics to watch for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton
FTC launches ag-equipment inquiry: The Federal Trade Commission and USDA on Wednesday announced a joint public inquiry into issues affecting agricultural equipment manufacturing and distribution markets. FTC and USDA, in a joint statement, said the inquiry included “potential anticompetitive conduct” and “seeks to address the growing number of complaints received by USDA that farmers across the country face other barriers to acquiring agricultural equipment and the services required to keep equipment operating.” Shares of Deere & Co. dropped 3.8% on Wednesday and other ag equipment makers also came under pressure. In a settlement earlier this year, Deere made it easier for farmers to fix their own equipment.
- “Today’s announcement is an industry-wide request for information — not a new company-specific lawsuit or finding of any wrongdoing,” Baird analyst Mig Dobre wrote Wednesday, according to Barron’s. “We view the news as largely immaterial, though it may create a near-term incremental overhang due to added uncertainty. This is an information-gathering exercise, not a new enforcement action.”
Making sense of western Corn Belt quality woes: Heavy September rainfall across the western Corn Belt severely delayed harvest and triggered sharp grain quality deterioration. The historically wet weather left standing crops vulnerable to Diplodia ear rot, lodging, and elevated mycotoxin risks. Don’t miss this deep dive into what the quality woes mean for cash and futures markets by Pro Farmer’s Hillari Mason: Rain-soaked harvest raises quality red flags: What it means for yields and basis in the western Corn Belt
No rush on next rate hike: Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, which saw policy makers unanimously vote to lift the central bank’s key lending rate by a quarter point, released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that further hikes are on the way amid persistent inflation pressures but didn’t convince traders that a consecutive tightening at this month’s meeting is an urgent priority. “Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal-funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end,” the minutes said. “Participants emphasized, however, that they approached each meeting with an open mind and decisions at future meetings would depend on incoming information.” Fed funds futures traders priced in a less than 20% probability of a quarter-point hike on Oct. 28, little changed from Tuesday. Traders see a nearly 85% probability of another hike by year-end.
North Dakota’s soybean ambitions: North Dakota is enjoying a major agricultural transformation as soybean plantings have more than tripled since 2000, Reuters highlighted in a Wednesday report. It noted that while Chinese export demand and booming domestic biofuel facilities have driven the expansion, stagnating yields remain a hurdle to reaching the state’s full potential. Reuters noted that yields have remained flat for more than a decade at around 35 bushels per acre, well below the national average of nearly 53. Severe weather shifts have compounded the gap, with rising temperatures and droughts pushing this year’s projected yield to a five year low of 30 bushels per acre. North Dakota State University researchers are actively breeding drought-tolerant soybean varieties in an effort to maximize yields within the state’s short growing season, the report noted.
- “The crux of my research ambition is to figure out how can we get North Dakota yields equivalent to Illinois,” plant breeder Carrie Dottey told Reuters.
Trump to call Putin over Russian plague death… President Donald Trump, in an Oval Office event on Wednesday that the U.S. does not think the death of a Russian laboratory worker from a suspected case of plague is the result of a bioweapon. Trump also said he planned to call Russian President Vladimir Putin, who turned 74 on Wednesday, later in the day, CNBC reported.Trump previously had said that call would focus on the plague-related incident. Russian media reported earlier this week that nearly 200 people had been placed under medical observation in Russia’s Irkutsk region in eastern Siberia over suspected exposure to plague, after a female worker at an anti-plague research institute in Irkutsk fell ill and died.