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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... There was a lot of scrambling during the holiday-shortened week. GOP leaders scrambled to get a reconciliation bill passed ahead of the July 4 deadline President Trump imposed. There was also a mad dash by several key trading partners to get deals secured ahead of the July 9 deadline for a significant increase in tariffs. USDA’s June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports unusually contained no major surprises, allowing traders to remain focused on other factors, including weather. The corn crop ended June with strong ratings, which suggest a record yield is possible, as it appears the crop will have ample moisture to pollinate. It’s likely going to take a shift in weather after pollination or some other bullish factor to stop the fund selling in corn and entice an active round of short-covering. On the livestock front, USDA plans to initiate a phased reopening of some ports of entry for Mexican cattle on July 7. However, this won’t be a full reopening, so imports will likely remain slow for the foreseeable future. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
House passes sweeping tax-cut and spending bill... The House passed President Donald Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill, delivering a significant legislative win for the administration and Republican leaders. The sweeping measure — central to Trump’s second-term agenda — includes permanent tax cuts, deep changes to Medicaid and social programs, farmer safety net improvements and expanded funding for border security and defense.
Ag scored some big wins, including higher reference prices, positive changes in crop insurance, a big boost in trade market development funding and a bevy of ag-friendly tax provisions, along with an extension of the 45Z credit program.
Trump has pledged to act “swiftly,” though the final signing could occur on July 4 or soon after, depending on final administrative processes. A tentative White House signing ceremony is to take place Friday afternoon, July 4.
July 4 holiday schedule... All markets and government offices are closed on Friday, July 4. Grains resume trade with the overnight session at 7:00 p.m. CT on Sunday, July 6. Livestock markets reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT on Monday, July 7. Pro Farmer wishes everyone a happy and safe holiday weekend.
U.S. jobs growth surges past forecasts in June... The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, significantly outpacing expectations and signaling continued resilience in the labor market. The stronger-than-expected jobs creation is expected to ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even as President Donald Trump has publicly called for lower borrowing costs.
Trump plans landmark China visit with U.S. CEOs as Washington shifts to ‘managed de-risking’... President Donald Trump is preparing to visit China later this year, accompanied by dozens of top American CEOs, in a high-profile effort to recalibrate the U.S./China economic relationship, according to Nikkei Asia. The trip, modeled after Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia — which yielded over $2 trillion in business deals — signals a marked shift from the previous strategy of rapid escalation to a more measured approach of “managed de-risking.”
The planned China visit follows Trump’s announcement of a new trade deal with Beijing and comes amid rising bipartisan concerns over economic decoupling. Instead of pushing for immediate concessions through escalating tariffs, the administration is now pursuing a gradual reduction of economic risks over five to 10 years.
Recent talks led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng resulted in a 90-day pause on most tariffs, along with a “supplementary understanding” on rare-earth exports and export restrictions. China agreed to review rare-earth export applications, while the U.S. will lift some Biden-era export controls on critical technologies.
The policy shift reflects the growing influence of Bessent, who has advocated for a “big, beautiful rebalancing” with China. His approach contrasts sharply with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s hawkish stance, particularly Rubio’s move to tighten visa restrictions for Chinese students. The internal debate underscores competing visions within the Trump administration over how best to manage the strategic rivalry with Beijing.
In advance of the trip, the State Department has sought input from business leaders with China expertise, emphasizing both economic and cultural preparations. Trump’s previous international business delegations have included executives from Tesla, Blackstone, BlackRock, OpenAI, Nvidia, Palantir, and Amazon, with similar participation expected for the China visit.
Outlook: The coming summit is intended to set a new course for U.S./China engagement, focusing on pragmatic economic ties rather than all-out confrontation. In recent remarks, President Xi Jinping told Trump that “recalibrating the direction of the giant ship of China/U.S. relations requires us to take the helm and set the right course,” emphasizing the need to avoid “disturbances and disruptions” amid ongoing tensions.
U.S., EU push for last-minute tariff deal as digital laws remain off limits... The U.S. and European Union are racing to reach a limited agreement on tariffs before a July 9 deadline, aiming to prevent the immediate imposition of a 50% U.S. tariff on EU imports. However, a core dispute remains off the table: the EU’s stringent content moderation and digital regulations, including the Digital Services Act (DSA), Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the AI Act.
Negotiators are working toward a “headline political understanding” rather than a comprehensive trade pact, focusing on averting tariff escalation. The framework under discussion would introduce a baseline 10% U.S. tariff on EU goods, with potential relief for key sectors such as automotive, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. EU officials caution that any agreement reached will likely be preliminary, with many specifics left for future talks.
Internal EU divisions persist over the baseline tariff, with some member states more willing to accept the terms than others. There is concern in Brussels that the EU may end up making more concessions than the United States.
Despite persistent U.S. pressure to address what it sees as discriminatory digital laws, Brussels has repeatedly refused to discuss changes to its digital framework as part of trade negotiations. EU leaders argue their regulations are designed for digital sovereignty and consumer protection, not protectionism, and insist that all companies operating in the EU must comply.
Outlook: The likely result is a bare-bones, nonbinding agreement that postpones new tariffs but leaves unresolved issues for later. The EU’s firm stance on digital laws highlights a growing transatlantic divide over tech governance and signals Europe’s intention to set global standards in digital markets. If talks collapse before the deadline, both sides are prepared to reimpose punitive tariffs, with the EU already preparing retaliation targeting 95 billion euros ($102.6 billion) in U.S. goods.
Japan stresses commitment to talks as Trump doubts deal possible... Japan has reaffirmed its commitment to ongoing negotiations with the U.S., even as President Trump cast doubt on the likelihood of a breakthrough. Japanese officials say they will keep diplomatic channels open and continue pursuing mutually beneficial agreements on trade, security, and technology.
Trump cited significant differences on tariffs and market access as key obstacles to any deal. This divergence underscores the complexity of U.S./Japan relations at a time of shifting global economic and political dynamics.
Bottom line: While Japan remains optimistic about dialogue, Trump’s public stance suggests any agreement would require major compromise. The outcome of these negotiations will be closely watched, as both nations balance domestic pressures with the broader goal of maintaining a strong bilateral partnership.
U.S., Indonesia set to sign $34 billion trade and investment pact... The U.S. and Indonesia are poised to sign trade and investment agreements totaling $34 billion as Jakarta works to secure a tariff deal before the July 9 cutoff for President Trump’s planned tariff hikes. Indonesia will invest in the U.S. and purchase American agricultural goods and $15.5 billion in energy products under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to be signed on July 7, according to Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto.
While the MoU is a key step in Indonesia’s negotiations to reduce Washington’s proposed 32% tariffs on Indonesian imports, Hartarto emphasized that it is not yet a final agreement and that the ultimate tariff terms depend on further U.S. decisions. The pact will involve Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, as well as major companies such as Garuda Indonesia and Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur.
Hartarto noted that transshipment concerns, which have complicated negotiations with other Southeast Asian nations, have not surfaced in U.S./Indonesia talks.