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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... It was an active week of market-moving news for the ag sector, starting with the 90-day reduction in tariffs between the U.S. and China. USDA’s May crop reports included the first winter wheat production estimates and initial look at the 2025-26 marketing year. Wheat production and new-crop carryover came in higher than anticipated, while new-crop corn and soybean ending stocks were lower than expected. The summer weather forecast calls for above-normal temps across the country, with below-normal rainfall likely in the western Corn Belt and Plains. EPA sent its proposed rule for Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and beyond to the White House for review, with speculation the biodiesel mandate would be lower than requested by industry groups spooking the soyoil market. In Washington, House reconciliation bills included several key provisions for agriculture. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
House Budget Panel rejects, delays GOP tax and spending package... The House Budget Committee on Friday delayed a key Republican tax and spending package after several rebel members voted against advancing it, forcing GOP leadership into last-minute negotiations to salvage the measure. The 16-21 vote bottles up the 1,116-page bill, for now, instead of sending it to the Rules Committee for an expected makeover early next week to address various concerns. The committee went into recess subject to the call of the chair, but with members departing Washington for their districts, House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Tex.), said the earliest they would try to meet again is Monday morning.
At the heart of the opposition are demands from rebels to accelerate Medicaid work requirements and immediately strip benefits from undocumented immigrants — measures currently scheduled to take effect in 2029. Arrington gaveled the markup to a close with no further action expected until next week. “Safe travels,” he told lawmakers headed out of town.
Despite the drama, GOP leaders plan to bring a revised version to the floor for a vote next week.
Rollins continues her global trade mission... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is set to continue her aggressive international trade agenda with upcoming visits to Italy, India, Vietnam, Japan and South America, aiming to promote U.S. agricultural exports and negotiate improved market access for American farmers and ranchers. After concluding a high-profile trade mission to the United Kingdom— where she advocated for lower tariffs and greater market access for U.S. products following a new U.S./UK trade deal —Rollins is now turning her attention to other major global markets. In Italy, Rollins will address longstanding non-tariff barriers that have limited U.S. agricultural exports, seeking to open new opportunities for American producers.
Following her stop in Italy, Rollins will travel to India, Vietnam and Japan, where she has indicated plans to push for increased imports of American farm products and to help rectify persistent trade imbalances. The U.S. currently faces a $1.3 billion agricultural trade deficit with India and is also seeking to address significant deficits with Brazil and other countries. Rollins’ mission includes advocating for science-based regulatory alignment and fairer treatment of U.S. products in these markets.
In Japan, intensive ministerial negotiations are already underway, with both countries aiming for a mutually beneficial deal as early as June (although Japanese elections in July could impact the timing). Rollins is expected to press for market-opening measures for key U.S. commodities, including beef, pork, rice, and specialty crops, while addressing Japanese tariffs and regulatory barriers.
The broader effort is part of a Trump administration push to reverse what it describes as a period of trade stagnation and deficits under the previous administration, with a renewed focus on putting “Farmers First” and expanding the global reach of American agriculture.
Rollins’ travel agenda over the next several months also includes visits to Peru and Brazil, as well as participation in additional USDA trade missions to markets such as the Dominican Republic, Taiwan, Côte d’Ivoire and Mexico.
Rollins emphasized the importance of these missions, stating, “Our farmers and ranchers produce the safest, highest quality food in the world, and I can’t wait for consumers across the globe to get more of a taste of the beef, poultry, pork, seafood, rice, specialty crops, and all the agricultural exports America has to offer.” By targeting key partners and emerging markets, Rollins aims to secure new export opportunities, reduce trade deficits, and ensure American producers remain competitive on the world stage.
Consumer sentiment continues to fall amid tariffs concerns... Consumer sentiment declined again in May, according to preliminary data released by the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. The Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 1.4 points (2.7%) from the previous month to a reading of 50.8, down 26.5% from year-ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped 2.2 points (3.7%), while the Index of Consumer Expectations slipped 0.8 point (1.7%).
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes. Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy... Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture – consumers continue to express somber views about the economy.”
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5% last month to 7.3%. Long-run inflation expectations rose from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May.
Note: Interviews for this survey were conducted between April 22 and May 13, ending two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.
China halts Brazilian poultry imports after HPAI outbreak... China has suspended all imports of Brazilian poultry for 60 days following confirmation of the country’s first commercial outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Brazil’s ag ministry has enacted containment protocols, including culling and quarantine.
Brazil’s outbreak removes the country’s advantage as a major producer unscathed by H5N1. Officials aim to restore trade swiftly, but the ripple effects on global poultry markets could be significant. Aside from China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the main destinations for Brazil’s chicken exports. Under agreements with Japan, UAE and Saudi Arabia, a trade ban would only restrict shipments from the affected state and, eventually, just the municipality in question. BRF and JBS face disruptions, as over 150 countries import Brazilian chicken.
Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said the country was working to contain the outbreak and negotiate a loosening of trade restrictions faster than the two months agreed in protocols. “If we manage to eliminate the outbreak, we think it’s possible to re-establish a normal trade flow before the 60 days are up, including with China” Favaro said in an interview aired on CNN Brasil.