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Heat, humidity to build over the next week, some crop stress likely... Changes are coming to the weather that will produce hotter temps and high relative humidity across areas of the U.S. through next week, inducing some crop stress.
World Weather Inc. says, “The heat will induce rapid drying and topsoil moisture that is favorably rated today is likely to be short to very short by the end of this month in the Delta, portions of the southern Tennessee River Basin and especially in the central and southern Plains, including eastern Kansas and parts of Missouri. Subsoil moisture will still be favorable for crops in the lower Midwest, northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin, but the need for rain and cooling will steadily rise as July ends. Once the ridge of high pressure establishes over the Plains region and Rocky Mountains there will be a series of thunderstorm outbreaks that will develop near the peak of the ridge and move southeast through the Midwest during the latter part of July and early August. This will bring back timely rain to portions of the Midwest and offer some opportunities for some cooling.”
Warm end to growing season, below-normal rainfall in western Corn Belt... The 90-day forecast from the National Weather Service calls for increased chances of above-normal temperatures across the entire contiguous U.S. for August through October. The extended forecast calls for an area of below-normal precip for most of the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains. The central Corn Belt is expected to see “equal chances” of above-, below- and normal precip during the period. The far eastern Corn Belt, Delta and Southeast are likely to see above-normal rainfall through October.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to develop or persist in pockets of the western Corn Belt through October. No drought is expected across the eastern half of the country during the next three months.
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Corn, soybean drought footprint continues to shrink... As of July 15, the Drought Monitor showed 47% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, down one percentage point from the previous week. USDA estimated D1-D4 drought conditions covered 9% of corn area (down three points), 7% of soybeans (down two points), 36% of spring wheat (up one point) and 3% of cotton production areas (unchanged).
Across major corn, soybean, spring wheat and cotton states, dryness/drought covered 12% of Iowa (no D3 or D4), 53% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 36% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 26% of Minnesota (no D3 or D4), 68% of Nebraska (no D3 or D4), 44% of South Dakota (no D3 or D4), 50% of North Dakota (no D3 or D4), 36% of Kansas (no D3 or D4), 57% of Colorado (9% D3, no D4), 78% of Montana (10% D3, no D4), 28% of Texas (10% D3 or D4), 4% of Ohio (no D3 or D4), 7% of Wisconsin (no D3 or D4) and 22% of Michigan (no D3 or D4). No measurable dryness/drought was reported for Kentucky, Tennessee or Arkansas.
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Politico: Thompson eyes September for ‘Farm Bill 2.0’ push... House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) told Politico he’s aiming to revive work on the unfinished sections of the farm bill — what he’s calling “farm bill 2.0” — with a markup planned for September. Thompson had initially targeted a pre-recess timeline, but the House’s departure after passing budget reconciliation disrupted those plans.
Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-Minn.) expressed openness to the proposal but noted that no staff-level planning meetings have occurred yet. The path forward could depend heavily on Democratic cooperation, which remains uncertain following partisan tensions over the reconciliation package.
USDA’s NRCS seeks internal transfers amid workforce cuts... USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) is asking employees to transfer into “critical” vacancies — just months after encouraging many to leave through incentive programs. According to Government Executive, the agency has lost over 2,400 staff since January, a more than 20% workforce cut, and plans further reductions with a hiring freeze in place until at least Oct. 15.
NRCS, which supports conservation efforts on private lands, told staff that hiring will resume only after staffing levels fall below December 2019 benchmarks — and will be capped at those levels going forward. This comes after USDA’s broader deferred resignation program led to the loss of approximately 16,000 employees across the department.
The shift follows a recent Supreme Court ruling that lifted an injunction blocking the Trump administration’s proposed layoffs, opening the door to reductions in force. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins previously said the department aims to streamline operations, relocate many Washington-based roles, eliminate redundant layers, and reduce office space.
Employees can apply for up to three positions but will not receive relocation assistance or pay raises.
Some cited operational issues are already emerging. Field staff are now responsible for far more counties, GIS expertise has been lost, and NRCS is approving fewer applications for core conservation programs like EQIP.
WSJ: China pressures ports deal... China is threatening to derail a $23 billion deal that would hand over control of more than 40 global ports — including two at the Panama Canal — to BlackRock and Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), unless its state-owned shipping giant COSCO is granted a stake, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The ports, currently owned by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison, have drawn Beijing’s ire over an agreement excluding COSCO. Chinese officials have warned BlackRock, MSC and Hutchison that failure to include COSCO would trigger regulatory or political retaliation — leveraging China’s economic influence and control over approvals for foreign mergers. “China is pushing for state-owned Cosco to be an equal partner and shareholder,” WSJ reported, citing sources familiar with the talks.
President Donald Trump has already objected to Hutchison’s control of Panama Canal ports and recently threatened to “take back” the canal, accusing Panama of violating the treaty that transferred U.S. control. While BlackRock and MSC had initially signed an exclusive deal with Hutchison in March, all parties are reportedly now open to COSCO’s involvement — though no final agreement can be struck before the exclusivity window closes on July 27.
This standoff adds to U.S./China tensions, with Chinese officials raising the COSCO stake issue during recent trade talks in Switzerland. Beijing previously ordered Chinese state-owned firms to suspend new business with Hutchison and its controlling shareholder.
The deal’s fate now hangs on whether Western firms will yield to Beijing’s demand — or risk escalating confrontation over control of one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints.