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USDA forecast net farm income to fall further in 2026 in the latest round of downbeat news around the state of the agricultural economy.
USDA estimated 2026 net farm income at $153.4 billion, down $1.2 billion from the downwardly revised 2025 figure, while net cash farm income, which includes government payments, was projected to see a modest rise of $4.6 billion to $158.5 billion. Direct government farm payments play a big role. They’re forecast at $44.3 billion for 2026, an increase of $13.8 billion, or 45%, from 2025.
USDA estimates farm income three times a year. USDA didn’t produce a report due in December due to the federal government shutdown, making Thursday’s the first report since September.
- Corn receipts are expected to grow $2.0 billion, or 3.3%, in 2026, mainly due to higher quantities sold.
- Soybean receipts are expected to hold steady in 2026.
- Wheat receipts are projected to fall $200 million, or 2.4%, due to lower quantities sold.
- Rice receipts are forecast to decline by $400 million, or 12.5% because of falling prices and smaller quantities sold.
- Receipts for hay are expected to rise $400 million, or 5.5%, in 2026.
- Cotton receipts are seen holding steady.
Cattle remain a rare bright spot. Receipts for cattle and calves are projected to grow $5.2 billion, or 4.1%, with cattle prices expected to continue rising in 2026.
Farm Bureau economists noted that USDA revised 2025 production expenses higher, to $473.1 billion, while adjusting direct government payments lower, to about $30.5 billion, roughly $10 billion below earlier expectations.
“Together, these revisions suggest the farm economy is experiencing a generational downturn rather than a temporary slowdown,” they said, in an analysis. “Outside of the cattle sector, most commodity markets are weakening. The updated forecast further cements that the expectations of a strong income rebound for 2025 did not come to fruition and this reinforces that farm profitability last year was more fragile than previously believed.”
Concerns around the state of the farm economy are growing. A bipartisan group of former leaders of U.S. farm groups, former USDA officials and state agriculture directors sent a letter to top House and Senate ag committee lawmakers warning that the dire state of the farm economy risked a “widespread collapse” of U.S. agriculture. The January Purdue University - CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed a steep decline in farmer sentiment and a downbeat long-term outlook.
Job jitters: The partial government shutdown ended, but traders still won’t get a January jobs report on Friday. Still, other data released this past week raised worries about a slowdown and breathed some life into hopes for a rate cut next month.
- Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said U.S.-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, up 118% from the same month last year and the highest total for the month since 2009.
- Payroll processor ADP said private-sector companies added just 22,000 jobs in January, below Wall Street expectations.
- The Labor Department said job openings last month fell to 6.54 million, the lowest since 2020, according to Bloomberg.
Fed-funds futures traders on Thursday priced in a 22.7% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in March, up from under 10% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The delayed January jobs report will be out on Feb. 11.
Court says EU countries can ban GMO crops: The European Union’s top court on Thursday ruled that member countries are within their rights to ban the cultivation of genetically modified crops in part or all of their territory, Reuters reported. The case came to court after an Italian farmer planted genetically modified corn despite an Italian ban. Italian authorities ordered the farmer to destroy the crop and fined him 50,000 euros ($58,940), the report said. The farmer then challenged the order and fine before Italian courts, which sought an opinion from the European Court of Justice on whether the ban infringed the EU’s free movement of goods and freedom to conduct a business and the principles of non-discrimination and proportionality.
Russia attacks undercut Ukraine grain exports: USDA on Thursday said average grain exports from Ukraine were 30% slower over the July-December 2025 window versus the same period a year ago. Citing State Customs Service of Ukraine data, USDA said Ukraine exported 7.8 million metric tons of wheat and 1.3 MMT of barley in the first over the stretch, which marks the half of the country’s 2025-26 marketing year.
- USDA said Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, rail and port infrastructure, and vessels, both docked in ports and in the Black Sea, took a toll on Ukraine’s calendar-year 2025 exports.
- The European Union’s introduction of tariff-rate quotas also contributed to the slump in wheat exports, the agency said in a Global Agricultural Information Network report.
Last call for frozen O.J.: Minute Maid is discontinuing its line of frozen juices, including orange juice, after 80 years, succumbing to changing breakfast habits. “We are discontinuing our frozen products and exiting the frozen can category in response to shifting consumer preferences,” The Coca-Cola Co., which owns Minute Maid, said Wednesday in a statement.
- Minute Maid’s frozen concentrates were the primary way Americans drank their morning orange juice in the 1950s and 1960s, noted Food Dive. Minute Maid helped pioneer the revolutionary product, which allowed consumers to enjoy orange juice no matter the season.
- But advances in pasteurization eventually saw frozen juices from concentrate overtaken by ready-to-drink varieties, Food Dive recalled, noting that, according to the Wall Street Journal, frozen concentrate orange juice represented just 7% of the market by the 2010s.
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