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Hopes for a deal to extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire rose after President Donald Trump said he was near a “final determination” on a proposed agreement. Crude futures fell, falling more than 10% on the week, and dragging corn and wheat futures down hard to end the week Friday.
Trump, in a Truth Social post, laid out a number of demands but left it unclear if they were part of the proposed agreement. These include Iran committing to never having a nuclear weapon and the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports “will now be lifted.” “I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination,” he said.
Earlier, multiple news reports said the U.S. and Iran were near a deal that would extend the ceasefire 60 days and begin talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Oil – and grain markets – extended declines after Trump’s social-media post was published.
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, fell 1.7% to close at $87.36 a barrel for a 17% monthly decline. July Brent went off the board at $92.05, down 1.8% on the day and 19% on the month.
July SRW wheat fell 13 1/2 cents to $6.10 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. For the week, July SRW was down 35 3/4 cents. July HRW wheat lost 15 1/2 cents to $6.49 3/4, near the daily low, hit a five-week low and for the week down 32 1/4 cents. July corn fell 9 cents to $4.46 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a three-month low. For the week, July corn was down 16 1/2 cents.
As of Friday afternoon, there was yet no affirmation of a deal.
The New York Times reported that Trump’s meeting in the Situation Room lasted about two hours. But the president didn’t reach a decision on any new deal with Iran, the report said, citing a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak about internal deliberations.The administration believes it is close to an agreement but there are still certain matters being debated including the unfreezing of funds for the Iranians, the official said.
Shock absorbers ‘rapidly eroding’: Remarks from Trump and Iranian officials have indicated that an agreement was near. But talk of an imminent deal has surfaced numerous times since the ceasefire began in April only to disappoint. Still, oil traders have repeatedly taken their cue from reports indicating a near-term resolution that would open the Strait of Hormuz, noted Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Friday note. Abundant inventories and the coordinated release of strategic reserves have helped blunt the initial impact of the largest supply shock in history, but the clock is ticking.
- With the war now entering its fourth month, “the world’s energy shock absorbers are rapidly eroding, and time is running out to reopen the Strait and stave off a hard landing,” she wrote.
Commodity index pulls back: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index fell 2.6% in May, its first decline in three months and trimming its year-to-date gain to around 25% as oil futures retreated and ag futures lost steam.
“May was a month of contrasts,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a Friday note. “While investors continued pouring money into technology and AI-related equities, helping push major stock indices towards fresh highs, commodity markets spent much of the month reassessing the outlook for supply disruptions stemming from the three-month conflict in the Middle East. So, while equities focused on the productivity gains and investment opportunities associated with artificial intelligence, commodities focused on whether the largest supply shock in years may finally begin to ease.”
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index saw a modest May monthly decline, led by losses in wheat, corn, sugar, coffee and livestock, and only partly offset by gains in soybean products and cocoa. Lower crude oil prices added pressure by reducing some of the inflationary concerns that had previously supported agricultural markets, Hansen said.
- “The key question for June is whether markets have become too optimistic about the speed with which the global supply system can normalize,” he said. “The sharp decline in energy prices reflects growing confidence that diplomacy may eventually restore flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet inventories remain depleted, supply chains remain stretched and many of the world’s energy shock absorbers have already been heavily utilized.”
Trump endorses Feenstra for Iowa governor: Trump, in a Truth Social post, endorsed U.S. Rep. Andy Feenstra for Iowa governor just days before voting ends in the state’s June 2 primary election.
“Randy is MAGA all the way!,” Trump wrote. Feenstra is one of five Republicans seeking the Republican nomination.
USDA finalizes specialty crop payments: USDA on Friday said it finalized the Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers Program, making $1.625 billion in one-time payments available to producers of eligible fruits, vegetables and tree nuts based on 2025 planted and reported acreage. Applications open June 1 and close August 7. The allocation was bumped up from the $1 billion that was initially announced earlier this year when USDA released details of the Farmer Bridge Assistance program that directed $11 billion to producers of covered commodities.
Renewable fuel credits hit records: Renewable fuel credits for 2026 hit records on Thursday and continued their run on Friday, Reuters reported, driven by stronger Environmental Protection Agency biofuel mandates and widening price gaps between biodiesel and conventional diesel. Credits tied to biodiesel and renewable diesel blending, known as D4 RINs, rose to a record $2.26 each on Thursday, and were trading at $2.32 on Friday. Before the EPA’s mandates were announced on March 27, they were trading at around $1.50, the report noted. The EPA has set biomass-based diesel requirements at 9.07 billion RINs. Each gallon of biodiesel generates about 1.5 D4 Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), while renewable diesel generates about 1.7, according to the EPA.
Your long weekend read: Reaching beneath a shelf of white sand in the curve of a forgotten creek, Gerry Powers’ hands touched the fringes of time. Sight unseen, sifting through a foot of sediment, his fingertips suddenly danced across the flaked edges of countless stone blades piled like pancakes. A motherlode hidden for 5,000-plus years. Blind luck or outdoor intuition, Powers uncovered one of the most astonishing Native American artifact discoveries in history — a cache of 115 quartzite blades ranging from 3” to 7” in length.
“It felt like a dream,” he describes. “I couldn’t pull them all out. I had to go sit on the bank and rest.”
How did Powers discover the stunning trove? Some creek walkers create their own luck…
Don’t miss Chris Bennett’s riveting account of how Gerry Powers uncovered one of the most historic artifact hoards on record. Read it here.