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Feedlot ‘house of cards’: Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report shows that a “house of cards” that’s allowed feedlot inventories to run high despite a shrinking calf crop is on the verge of collapse, says Oklahoma State University livestock extension marketing specialist Derrell Peel.
In Monday’s OSU Extension “Cow-Calf Corner” newsletter, Peel writes that while Sept. 1 inventories held at 11.163 million head, up 0.7% year over year, the figure is the result of a record low marketing rate, which has been accomplished entirely by extending the number of days on feed. That’s resulted in carcass weights rising by a massive 75 bounds over three years. By comparison, from 1960-2022 the average annual increase in steer carcass weights was 4.0 pounds/year, Peel noted. In other words, the roughly 75-pound increase in steer carcass weights in the last three years is equivalent to the increase over the previous 18 years.
With August placements plunging 9.2% and the calf crop down 3.79 million head from its 2018 peak, Peel asserts this low marketing rate cannot continue dropping. As a result, lower placements will force feedlot inventories lower in the coming months, with feeder supplies expected to tighten further into 2027.
Beef-state backlash: Farm-state Republicans are facing significant pushback from voters over President Donald Trump’s efforts to combat high beef prices by importing 300,000 metric tons of discounted, tariff-free foreign beef, Politico reports. Democratic and independent candidates in key farm states, including Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Texas, are leveraging the controversy ahead of upcoming Senate races, the report said. Independent Nebraska candidate Dan Osborn has launched a major campaign attacking the plan, while Democrats argue the policy shows Washington turning its back on rural America, the report said. Politico noted that Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas have scrambled to distance themselves from the proposal while navigating broad voter frustration over rising fuel and fertilizer costs.
U.S. corn crop steady: USDA’s weekly Crop Progress and Condition report showed corn crop as 17% very poor to poor, 26% fair, and 57% good to excellent. The national level ratings were unchanged from week-ago levels for the second consecutive week. Still, the Crop Condition Index saw a 1.69 point decline, led by a drop in Nebraska (down 1.29 points) as well as deteriorations in the Corn Belt states of Illinois (down 0.44 points) and Iowa (down 0.17 points).
USDA pegged the soybean crop as 14% very poor to poor, 28% fair, and 58% good to excellent. The very poor to poor categories increased by 1% this week, with the fair category falling 1%. The changes saw the CCI drop 2.86 points to 357.55. Condition changes were sporadic geographically, though most states in the Midwest noted minor declines. Ohio served as the main exception to that, increasing 0.49 points from last week. Click here to read more.
Notable closes:
December corn rose 15 1/2 cents to $5.43
March corn rose 15 1/4 cents to $5.56 3/4
November soybeans rose 24 1/2 cents to $13.28
January beans rose 24 cents to $13.44
December soymeal rose $9.80 to $368.40
December soyoil rose 63 points to 68.85 cents
December SRW wheat rose 12 1/2 cents to $7.26 3/4
December HRW wheat rose 10 3/4 to $7.94 1/2
December Spring wheat rose a nickel to $7.46 1/4
December cotton rose 227 points to 83.42 cents
October live cattle rose 5.02-5 to $220.95
December live cattle rose 5.37-5 to $222.0
October feeders rose 6.75 to $330.25
November feeders rose 8.10 to $326.10.
October lean hogs rose a nickel to $78.15