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Farmer sentiment extended its decline in June, with high input costs remaining at the top of the list of worries, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index showed on Tuesday.
The index fell from 119 points in May to 113 points in June. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 5 points, falling to its lowest since December 2024. The Index of Futures Expectations dropped 7 points. The survey found 47% of farmers listed high input costs as their top concern, with low crop and livestock prices a distant second at 23%.
Among the key takeaways:
- Only 12% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off in June than they had been a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 22% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 1 point to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.
- The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined from 130 in May to 124 in June, while the long-term index increased to 166, tying its record high. Alternative investments, net farm income, and inflation were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.
- Since July 2025, the survey has asked producers whether they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track.” After averaging 71% over the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” was 52% in May and 53% in June.
- There continued to be a large gap in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 25% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 68% expected good times for livestock producers.
AI skepticism: The June survey also featured two questions related to the use of artificial intelligence or data-driven tools in agriculture. The first question asked respondents what they saw as the main benefit from such tools, with 23% listing an increase in production, while 14% said reducing labor and 11% said reducing risk or uncertainty. Meanwhile, 52% said they didn’t see a meaningful benefit.
The survey also asked whether recommendations produced via data-driven tools would be difficult to follow. Approximately 63% of respondents indicated that recommendations would be sometimes difficult to follow, while 22% indicated that recommendations would often be difficult to follow.
- Farmers and free trade: The June survey also examined agricultural exports and attitudes toward free trade. Approximately 43% of respondents expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, while only 9% expected agricultural exports to decline. Respondents were also asked how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” Nearly 85% agreed or strongly agreed with the statement.
The barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the country from June 15 to 19.
Trump says Walmart cut beef prices at his request: President Donald Trump said Walmart cut prices on a range of products, including ground beef, at his request. “I have just been informed that one of the biggest, best, and smartest Retailers in America, Walmart, will be lowering prices, by a lot, at my Administration’s request to celebrate our great Country’s 250th birthday,” Trump said on Truth Social Monday. “Walmart will, in particular, be dropping the price for a pound of ground beef by almost 15%, among many other products.” The Associated Press reported that the company, in a statement issued Monday, said its price rollbacks at Walmart and Sam’s Club “are designed to help customers and members make the most” of the summer season. There was no mention of any interaction with the administration and the company did not publicly comment on Trump’s claims, the report said.
U.S. strikes Iran: U.S. Central Command said in an X post that forces have “begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”
Oil prices jump after Iran waiver revoked: Oil futures had already jumped in late trade after the Trump administration revoked a license that allows Iran to sell oil on the open market. The Treasury Department said a June 21 license granted to Iran would no longer apply, the Wall Street Journal reported, a move that came hours after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles and drones at ships near the Strait of Hormuz Tuesday. Brent crude traded near $76 a barrel, up around 5% from Monday’s closing level.
- The Journal wrote that Iran’s renewed attacks on tankers near the Strait expose a conundrum for Tehran’s hardliners, who see their control of the waterway as leverage in talks with the U.S. but also feel their grip weaken as more ships slip through.
Grape harvest shrivels: The brutal heatwave that’s afflicted Western Europe has sent Euronext corn futures to a series of contract highs. Grape producers are also suffering, Reuters reported, with the scorching temperatures stunting grape growth in key wine regions, threatening a smaller crop and inducing one of the earliest harvests on record. In Champagne, producers expect the earliest harvest ever, with picking likely to start around August 15, about a month earlier than was typical a few decades ago, the report said. In Bordeaux and Burgundy, where the heatwave was even more severe, producers said it was too early to give precise output estimates but warned the decline would be “significant”.
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