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Strong credit demand from U.S. farmers pushed the average size of operating loans to a record and pushed up lending volumes in 2025, according to the National Survey of Terms of Lending to Farmers conducted by the Federal Reserve.
The fourth quarter saw strong demand for operating loans, boosting farm-lending activity at commercial banks, said Ty Kreitman, associate economist at the Kansas City Federal Reserve, in a paper published Friday.
According to estimates from the survey, the volume of new farm operating loans rose nearly 40% from the previous year in the fourth quarter and grew by an average of more than 20% in 2025. While the rise in non-real estate lending during the fourth quarter was attributed to operating expenses, increased feeder-livestock lending also contributed to growth in activity throughout most of 2025, the survey found.
Adjusting for inflation, the average size of farm operating loans during 2025 was 30% larger than the prior year, following similar growth during 2024. Loan sizes have grown alongside elevated production expenses and pushed operating loan volumes well above the average of the past two decades, Kreitman noted.
Among the findings:
- Farm loan interest rates remained above the average of recent decades but declined for the sixth consecutive quarter. The share of non-real estate loans with a variable rate increased from below average levels and average loan maturities increased.
- The farm economy outlook remained subdued amid weakness in the crop sector, but “aggregate farm financial stress” remained limited, Kreitman wrote. Direct government payments and resilient farm real estate values have eased some of the strain from a weak profit picture for crops, while strength in the cattle sector has lifted income in many areas.
- Demand for farm loans has grown alongside tighter working capital, elevated production costs and a surge in cattle prices.
- Market conditions in the crop sector are likely to keep profit opportunities narrow in the months ahead, the survey indicated, prolonging challenges for growers that have led to steady deterioration in agricultural credit conditions.
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StoneX raises Brazil soybean, corn estimates: StoneX Brazil’s customer survey pushed the soybean crop to 181.6 million metric tons, up from 177.6 million MT the previous month, and up from USDA at 178.0 million MT, said Arlan Suderman, StoneX chief commodities economist, in a note. The firm put Brazil’s total corn crop at 135.5 million MT, up from 134.3 million MT previously, and above USDA at 131.0 million MT.
- Early soybean harvest results have been favorable,” he wrote. “The winter (safrinha) corn planting season is just beginning, but thus far there are few risks presenting themselves for the crop.”
Rains may delay Brazil harvest: Harvest is under way for some of Brazil’s earliest planted soybeans, first-season corn and other crops, with main production areas seeing a mix of erratic rain and sunshine over the past week, said Andrew Owen, meteorologist at World Weather Inc., in a note. That weather allowed for aggressive maturation and harvesting at time, he said, while center-south and center-west parts of the country will see more opportunities for rain this week that will bolster soil moisture.
- Meanwhile, waves of rain may disrupt the harvest and general fieldwork as well, most notably in Minas Gerais, and Goias into Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and neighboring locations, he said.
- “Early-season safrinha (or second-crop) corn planting may also advance slowly due to the wet conditions, though the rain will improve long-term production potentials. Parana and northeastern Brazil will see a good mix of rain and sunshine this week while other areas in southern Brazil are drier than usual.
Tyson’s beef loss: Tyson Foods Inc.’s beef business posted an adjusted operating loss of $143 million in its fiscal first quarter, Bloomberg reported, worse than analysts expected despite a 17% rise in pricing that boosted year over year sales growth.
- Tyson’s beef segment extended a run of quarterly losses that began at the start of 2024, the report noted, with the company counting on consumer demand to boost chicken volumes and raise beef prices, while dealing with tight cattle numbers that aren’t expected to soon recover.
- “Continuing to absorb losses like we have been seeing for the past two years is simply unacceptable,” Chief Executive Officer Donnie King said on an earnings call Monday.
- Tyson rattled the cattle market in November when it announced it would close a Nebraska beef plant and reduce a Texas plant to one shift. King said those changes were implemented in January and, therefore, aren’t reflected in the company’s first-quarter results.
- Tyson shares ended the day up 0.6%. Adjusted earnings for the entire company were 97 cents a share, down 15% from the prior year but above analyst estimates of 95 cents, Bloomberg noted.
‘Wagyu of pork’: A wave of middle-class nostalgia for the “black pork” that was prevalent before the importation of faster growing Western “white pork” breeds is serving as a lifeline for beleaguered Chinese pig farmers, Reuters reported. Marketed as the “Wagyu of pork,” the premium cut, which is up to four times more expensive than more common white pork, is one of the remaining profitable segments after years of overcapacity and falling prices in the world’s largest market for hogs, the report said. Weak demand, a stagnant economy and changing consumer preferences have weighed on pork prices, which in December were down 14.6% from a year earlier.
- “Black pigs are the only way out for pig producers, especially small-to-medium producers who were pressured by falling white pork prices,” said Gao Qinxue, a director at the Chinese Association of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine.
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