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Farm groups on Friday hailed the Senate’s confirmation of Julie Callahan as chief agricultural negotiator within the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
Callahan was part of a group of federal nominees confirmed by the Senate in a 53-43 vote late Thursday.
“We are extremely pleased to see that Ambassador Callahan will serve in this role, which is critical to the success of farmers,” said National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower. “We endorsed her nomination early on, because we know she has the extensive experience and know-how to help growers take advantage of opportunities and navigate challenges. We look forward to working with the ambassador to position corn and corn products for successful inclusion in trade deals negotiated by the administration.”
NCGA underlined the importance of Callahan’s new role, noting that Mexico earlier this year withdrew a measure that banned genetically modified corn imports from the U.S. after USTR filed a dispute settlement against the country over the matter. The chief agricultural negotiator was instrumental throughout the dispute, which allowed the U.S. to prevail, the organization said.
Other groups also joined in.
“Trade disputes and imbalances have hit farmers hard at a time they were already pummeled by record-high expense costs and low commodity prices. We look forward to working with Dr. Callahan to enforce existing trade agreements while strengthening and building new markets to ensure farmers and ranchers can continue growing food and fiber for families around the world,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall.
“Dr. Callahan brings a deep understanding of how critical export markets are to the strength of U.S. agriculture,” said American Soybean Association CEO Stephen Censky.
“Julie Callahan brings an unparalleled level of knowledge, experience and dedication to this position and USMEF congratulates Dr. Callahan on her confirmation by the U.S. Senate. This is an especially critical time for agricultural trade, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and many key trading partners,” said U.S. Meat Export Federation President and CEO Dan Halstrom.
Callahan previously served as a deputy assistant U.S. trade representative and senior director in the USTR Agriculture Office, focusing on strategic engagement in UN organizations, EU, UK, Turkey, and Eastern European Sanitary and Phytosanitary Issues and agriculture-related Technical Barriers to Trade.
Don’t snooze on Japan
What do Japanese bond investors have to do with the prices of grain or livestock? Directly, not much, but when they make sudden shifts it can send ripple effects across all markets. So it’s worth paying attention to the Bank of Japan and the market’s reaction to its latest policy moves.
The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate on Friday to its highest level in 30 years to 0.75% from 0.5%, citing sticky inflation. The hike comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week delivered the latest in a series of rate cuts. The yen actually weakened after the move, in part because BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda was murky on the prospects for additional tightening. But the yen has rebounded more than 8% versus a broadly weaker U.S. dollar over the last six months in part to the contrasting monetary policy stances between the two countries.
And expectations for further tightening could mean more yen strength, which could threaten what’s known as the “carry trade,” in which traders borrow in cheap yen to buy higher-yielding assets, such as U.S. Treasuries and equities, elsewhere.
The bigger worry, however, is that the slow move away from ultralow interest rates raises the attractiveness of Japanese government bonds to domestic Japanese investors. The Treasury market has seen occasional bouts of volatility, including in the summer of 2023, on such concerns. Japanese investors have vast holdings of U.S. fixed income, and anything that sends them running for the exits would serve to lift U.S. yields and strengthen the dollar, with implications for other markets. That isn’t a prediction or base-case scenario, but it’s smart to be aware of where lie the potential fault lines in the global financial system.
Global fund managers most overweight commodities in over 3 years
The Bank of America Global Fund Survey released earlier this week found that December optimism drove allocation of cyclical risk assets (equities and commodities) to the highest level since Feb'22; equity allocation rose to net 42% overweight (highest since Dec 2024) and commodity allocation rose to net 18% overweight (highest since Sep 2022).
The data comes as precious metals continue to scream higher, led by silver’s 100%-plus rally in 2025, while gold has hit repeated records on a 65% year-to-date runup. The question for agricultural commodities remains whether a bullish setup for commodities in general will lift all boats.
For their part, BofA analysts noted that the jump in exposure to cyclical risk assets is diverging from soft data, such as a November Institute for Supply Management manufacturing reading in contraction territory at 48.2%, and pointing to a sharp acceleration of cyclical sectors in the economy that have lagged in this cycle, particularly manufacturing.
Gold rally to continue in 2026, but don’t call it an inflation hedge: Goldman Sachs
Don’t look for the gold rally to end anytime soon after a gain of around 65% so far in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street bank expects the yellow metal to hit $4,900 an ounce by the end of next year, up around 12% from its level of around $4,380 an ounce on Friday.
Central banks, particularly from emerging markets, remain the driver. Led by China they’ve been on a buying spree in an effort to diversify their reserves away from dollar-denominated assets. That trend, which began in 2022, is a response to Western sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, said Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, in a Friday interview with CNBC.
In other words, the gold rally is less about serving as a hedge for inflation – Goldman sees U.S. inflation falling back toward the Fed’s target of 2% in 2026 – and more about diversification. “I think it’s more of a financial hedge for them,” Dart said. “Having reserves in gold where you are makes you safer against someone taking your dollar-based assets elsewhere.”
The gold rally is sustainable because supply responds slowly to demand, Dart said. Increased buying means more competition for limited amounts of physical gold. And with the Fed in an easing cycle, positioning by exchange traded funds is getting “longer and longer and that’s also asset-backed,” she said, which means more competition for limited supply.
November cattle placements lowest on record
The latest monthly Cattle on Feed report released by USDA after Friday’s market close showed placements on feedlots during November were 89% of the level from a year ago, coming in well below the average estimate of 92% in a pre-report survey by Reuters. Placements were the lowest for November since current records began in 1996, according to USDA.
Cattle on feed were at 98% of a year-ago, versus a forecast for 98.4%. Marketings at 88% were roughly in line with a forecast for 88.7%. The report overall was viewed as neutral to friendly.
Cattle had rallied into the report, posting a strong finish to a winning week. February live cattle futures rose $2.40 to $230.80, hitting a seven-week high. For the week, February live cattle rose $1.25. January feeder cattle futures gained $5.325 to $345.60, also hitting a seven-week high and posting a weekly gain of $6.50.
Near-steady cash cattle prices in trade this week and improved boxed beef values were expected to keep selling interest in cattle futures limited in the near term.