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U.S. farm debt hit a record of $605 billion in 2026, up from an inflation-adjusted $300 billion in 2020, according to USDA estimates. But Reuters reports the official figure likely undercounts the true amount of debt owed due to a sharp rise in non-traditional and vendor credit. Growers are increasingly turning to alternative funding sources, including equipment manufacturers, agricultural cooperatives, input suppliers and fintech firms, to cover operating costs,the report said, with Reuters reporting that about half of all commercial U.S. farms relied on vendor or nontraditional lenders this past season. The report said that because vendor credit and nontraditional loans aren’t consistently captured by banking regulators, it creates a blind spot for banking regulators when it comes to tracking total ag debt. USDA officials told Reuters the agency is initiating research projects to measure such borrowing and assess whether agricultural stress could trigger broader financial stability spillover risks.
Market recap: Grain and soy markets traded mostly lower today under mild technical pressure and follow-through selling, with soybean meal leading losses after spreaders were featured selling meal and buying bean oil. Wheat futures paused as fighting in the Black Sea helped limit further selling interest ahead of Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. Livestock futures saw modest corrective pullbacks and light profit-taking following recent gains, while lean hogs faced continued technical selling pressure from dominant bears.
- December corn fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.00 1/4, near mid-range.
- November soybeans fell 10 cents to $12.87 1/2, near the daily low.
- December soybean meal fell $8.20 to $357.60, near the daily low.
- December soybean oil rose 24 points to 67.92 cents, near mid-range.
- December SRW wheat fell 3 1/4 cents to $6.83 1/4, near the daily low.
- December HRW wheat lost 2 1/4 cents to $7.36 1/4, nearer the daily low.
- December spring wheat futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $7.06, near the daily low.
- December cotton futures fell 9 points to 79.94 cents, near the daily low.
- December live cattle fell $0.225 to $223.55, nearer the daily high.
- November feeder cattle lost $0.925 to $334.875, near mid-range.
- December lean hog futures fell $0.50 to $68.60, near mid-range.
Awaiting WASDE, Crop Production: USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. ET on Friday. Key market expectations across commodities include:
- Corn: Traders watch if USDA lowers new-crop yields toward the 177.8 bu/acre analyst average (down from 178.5). Quarterly stocks rose to 2.095 billion bushels, meaning a yield near 175–176 bu/acre is required to push stocks-to-use below 10%.
- Soybeans: Tighter old-crop ending stocks (315.1M bu) lend support. Yield estimates average 52.9 bu/acre, up 0.1 bushel from USDA’s September estimate.
- Wheat: Production was raised 3 million bushels on Sept. 30.The balance sheet may see l export forecast cuts due to slow demand and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Cotton: Analysts expect a 230,000-bale production cut following Southeastern rain damage, though lack of Chinese demand caps upside. Read Pro Farmer’s USDA preview here.
El Niño getting stronger… The El Niño weather pattern continues to strengthen, says NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The agency’s latest update indicates the phenomenon will continue to strengthen through the end of the year and that chances remain high for a historic event that exceeds the strength of previous El Niño events going back to 1950, extending the potential window for severe weather events. “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,” the CPC said.
Bond market finds demand… U.S. Treasuries finished higher on Thursday, pulling down yields, after an auction of 30-year Treasury bonds met solid demand. A sale of 10-year Treasury notes on Wednesday was also well received. A lack of strong interest in the securities after yields have pushed to their highest level in more than two decades would have been a worrying sign for a market that remains on edge about rising government borrowing costs around the world. That said, investors appear to be positioning for higher-for-longer bond yields, with the updraft being driven by a host of factors from rising government debt levels to signs of strengthening economic growth to massive corporate debt issuance tied to the AI boom to higher oil prices, which stoke inflation worries.
Jobless claims remain low… The Labor Department on Thursday said 197,000 people filed for first-time unemployment claims in the week ended Oct. 3, down from 2,000 the previous week and below the consensus forecast of 200,000. The reading marked the fourth straight week the figure has come in below the 200,000 threshold, signaling that layoff activity remains subdued.
- “Despite extremely pessimistic views expressed in consumer confidence surveys regarding the economy overall, countless headlines describing job cuts from a variety of businesses, and the phantom job-stealing power of AI, the claims data suggests that labor market conditions are stable,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, in a note.
Lithuania to propose EU ban on Russia grain transit… Lithuania will call for an EU ban on Russian grain transit and sanctions on Russian agricultural oligarchs, as Baltic states move to halt shipments through their ports, Bloomberg reported. “This is an unacceptable situation, one that has been tolerated until now on the grounds that EU sanctions do not apply to food products,” Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius said in a Facebook post on Thursday.