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Senate Agriculture Chairman John Boozman expects his committee to advance the farm bill before the August recess, even without Sen. Mitch McConnell, Agri-Pulse reported. “We want Senator McConnell there, but I think we have a product that we can get out of committee, with or without him,” Boozman told reporters Wednesday. McConnell, a Kentucky Republican and member of the committee, is out due to a health issue. McConnell’s absence has raised questions on whether the farm bill would have enough votes to be approved by the committee. Boozman, an Arkansas Republican, reiterated that it’s critical for farmers that Congress pass a farm bill as soon as possible, the report said.
Can a deluge of cattle data stop the bleeding? A trio of USDA reports due Friday afternoon will be watched for clues a historic cattle-market selloff has run its course. Through Wednesday’s close, August live-cattle futures have dropped over $24 since June 25, a stretch that included a record, 15-day losing streak, while August feeders shed more than $32 over the same stretch. USDA is scheduled to release a slew of reports on Friday afternoon that will provide an update on the supply picture for both cattle and beef, having ramifications for price action following the peak of grilling season. Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford breaks down what to watch when the reports hit after Friday’s close: Will Friday’s USDA triple play halt the cattle selloff?
Wheat hits contract highs: Winter wheat futures soared, with September soft red winter wheat rising 27 3/4 cents to $7.05 3/4, while September hard red winter wheat added 30 1/2 cents to $7.63 1/2 and September spring wheat futures rose 24 3/4 cents to $7.29. September SRW and September HRW both hit contract highs, helped by surging crude oil prices and intensified fighting between Russia and Ukraine that’s creating a bottleneck for wheat shipments.
Citing data from the Russian Grain Union, ING commodity analysts said Russia’s grain shipments fell 13.6% year-on-year to 1.3mt during the first twenty days of July, amid disruptions to Black Sea export operations following recent Ukrainian strikes. Disruptions to Black Sea grain exports are not isolated to Russia. Ukrainian exports are also being heavily disrupted amid ongoing Russian attacks on port infrastructure, they noted.
‘Long’ bond jitters: A selloff in the Treasury market is driving up yields and raising some alarm bells on Wall Street. MarketWatch’s Joy Wiltermuth noted Wednesday that the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond – known as the “long” bond – remained above 5% for an 11th straight day on Wednesday, its longest stretch above that threshold since 2007, the early days of the financial crisis. Inflation concerns as crude and energy prices surge higher on renewed fighting in the Middle East and Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure are a culprit. A steady stream of corporate debt issuance from AI “hyperscalers” is another factor, she observed.
The Wall Street Journal’s Spencer Jakab noted that the 30-year bond yield sends a message about U.S. government finances. A higher 30-year yield doesn’t raise federal interest costs much since most debt issued is short-term, but it does reflect “creeping doubts” among investors about the government’s future ability to pay. That doesn’t really spark fears of default, Jakab argues, but it raises concerns about other ways to deal with unsustainable debt levels, including letting inflation quickly erode their value.
- Bloomberg’s David Rovella points out that the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate is 150 basis points, or 1.5 percentage points, lower than it was in 2007, suggesting investors are demanding even more compensation to hold the long bond than at the start of the subprime debt meltdown.
Drop-off in HRS wheat yields: A crop tour headed by the Wheat Quality Council is reporting yield projections for North Dakota down 4 bushels an acre from the prior year, according to Dow Jones Newswires. At 46 bushels an acre, it’s still close to the 5-year average, but giving grain traders reason to believe that worse yields might soon be reported from the tour, the report said. High temperatures over the northern Plains last week are feared to have dented yield potential.
Typical year for crop-insurance losses: The 2025 crop insurance program had a low‑loss, very typical year: overall payments were well below premiums, with a national loss ratio of 0.67, far under the long‑term average and the government’s target, according to a farmdoc daily paper published Tuesday. Corn and soybeans again had the lowest losses, wheat sat in the middle, and cotton, rice, and peanuts had the highest losses and the largest net payouts to farmers, the data showed, continuing a long‑standing pattern. The Midwest, dominated by corn and soybeans, saw the lowest net benefits and even negative net indemnities in many counties, while the South and East saw much higher benefits. Over the past 20 years, low‑loss crops have trended even lower and high‑loss crops even higher, meaning cotton, rice, and peanuts consistently receive far more support from crop insurance than corn, soybeans, or wheat. With new legislation increasing subsidies, these net benefits are likely to grow over time.
French minister resigns, then unresigns, in farm bill debate: The U.S. is far from the only place that farm legislation and pesticide policy can stir political turmoil. French Environment Minister Monique Barbut handed in her resignation in protest after parliament approved a farm bill allowing the temporary reintroduction of two pesticides suspected of harming bees, Reuters reported. But a government spokesperson later announced that Barbut would be staying on.
Duck tales: There’s a new source of trade tension between the European Union and China: Peking Duck. The EU is conducting an anti-dumping probe into the popular poultry. Bloomberg’s Hallie Gu writes that while “the symbolism of the probe probably counts more than the actual value of what remains a niche trade, the case points to a bigger story.”
The bigger story is how China’s agricultural system, built to feed over 1 billion people, is now driving producers to seek overseas markets in the face of slowing domestic demand as the population shrinks, the report said, noting that China is on track to become a net exporter of poultry, dairy, eggs and farmed aquatic products by around 2040.
- Gu observes that “Made in China” is expanding “well beyond inexpensive clothes, plastic toys or state-of-the art solar panels. Increasingly it’s also about the poultry, fish, and even caviar and foie gras that are making their way onto dinner tables around the world.”