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USDA is launching a pilot project aimed at improving its U.S. crop acreage and yield estimates, a move that will rely more on technology. The announcement by USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins discussed the modernization plan at the Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa, after a month-long series of listening sessions.
- “We will conduct a pilot to evaluate the use of improved satellite imagery, working with NASA and other federal government agencies across the country to figure out how we can make this reporting more accurate,” Rollins said during the farm conference, Reuters reported.
Under the plan, the project will use geospatial tools and crop models alongside farmer polls to estimate crop acreage and yields, the report said. The department also said it would explore the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Sentiment improves: Farmer sentiment improved for a second month in a row in August, according to the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer released Tuesday, rising from 126 points in July to 135 points.
Both sub-indexes also rose, with the Index of Current Conditions up 1 point, while the Index of Future Expectations gained 11 points. Notably, for the first time since June 2025, a higher proportion of respondents expect their operation to be better off financially (28%) than worse off (24%) a year from now, noted Purdue ag economists Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi. The survey also found more optimism over export prospects, while high input costs remained the top concern of 45% of respondents. The survey of 402 farmers across the U.S. ran from Aug. 10 to 14.
Among the other highlights:
- The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased by 8 points to 127 in August. Alternative investments, interest rates, and inflation were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.
- Asked to rate farmland as an investment, 65% of respondents indicated that farmland was a good investment, 17% indicated that farmland was a medium investment, and 18% indicated that farmland was a poor investment.
- The percentage of respondents who described the U.S. as heading in the “right direction” fell to 51% from 54% in July.
“Despite the improvement in producer sentiment, important concerns remain,” wrote Langemeier and Colussi. “High input costs continue to be the biggest concern, followed by low crop and livestock prices and rising interest rates.”
Market recap: Grain futures kicked off September where they left off in August, with corn, wheat and soybeans notching contract highs. A drop in soybean condition ratings and a relief rally for soybean oil after Monday’s EPA decision on small refinery exemptions and reallocations saw the soy complex lead the way. Rising crude prices also helped underpin grains, while fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues to impede grain exports from the Black Sea region.
- December corn rose 8 ¼ cents to end at $5.46.
- November soybeans surged 29 ¾ cents to end at $13.17 ¾.
- December soft red winter wheat rallied 8 ½ cents to $7.82 ½.
- December cotton dropped 159 points to 91.55 cents.
- October live cattle fell 60 cents to $212.075, while November feeders dropped $1.90 to $308.525.
- October lean hots lost 2.5 cents to $83.65 after hitting a three-week high.
Don’t miss: Will corn’s momentum last? History offers mixed signals after historic August breakout.
Oil and bonds in spotlight: Fireworks weren’t confined to the grain markets. The U.S. launched strikes on Iranian targets in response to attacks on commercial ships in the region. Oil futures surged in response, with WTI ending 5.2% higher at $90.22 a barrel, its highest close since July 23, according to Dow Jones Newswires, while Brent rose 4.6% to $94.65 a barrel.
The jump in crude contributed to a renewed push higher by government bond yields around the globe, which contributed to a selloff in U.S. and global stock markets.
- Bond markets are in a “doom loop,” Craig Inches, head of rates and cash at Royal London Asset Management, told the Financial Times. “The conflict isn’t going away, yields have to price in more uncertainty, but governments still have a lot more borrowing to do…you aren’t getting any respite,” he said.
Agrarian author Wendell Berry dies at 92: Wendell Berry, the Kentucky farmer, essayist, novelist and poet, died at the age of 92, his family announced late Monday. Berry’s essays on organic farming and sustainable agriculture and his pointed criticism of corporate agribusinesses and modern farming techniques won him a wide following as well as detractors.
- “The soil is the great connector of lives, the source and destination of all. It is the healer and restorer and resurrector, by which disease passes into health, age into youth, death into life. Without proper care for it we can have no community, because without proper care for it we can have no life.” – Wendell Berry, The Unsettling of America: Culture & Agriculture (1977)