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The 2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour is in the books and, in case you missed it, our national corn and soybean estimates came out this afternoon after the closing bell. A rather rocky growing season across much of the Midwest appeared to limit the corn crop, with scouts regularly reporting subpar ear counts and grain length, along with maturity concerns as a result of wet weather and replants in parts of the eastern Corn Belt.
Corn: The U.S. corn crop is estimated 15.344 billion bushels based on an average yield of 173.2 bu. per acre.
Soybeans: The U.S. soybean crop is estimated at 4.572 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre.
- “What we saw throughout the week was a crop with solid potential, but also more variability and fewer bushels than appearances might suggest,” said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and western Crop Tour leader. “In corn, lower ear populations, shorter grain length and inconsistent field performance limited upside in a number of areas, while soybeans showed pockets of strong potential but remain more dependent on late-season weather and plant health.”
The corn figure is below where USDA put the crop in its August Crop Production report, when it estimated an average national yield of 180.7 bu. per acre. USDA pegged the average soybean yield at 52.7 bu. per acre.
More state-by-state facts and other details on the estimate and this year’s Crop Tour can be found in your weekly Pro Farmer newsletter.
Market recap: State-level Crop Tour results over the week were almost a steady drumbeat of disappointment when it came to corn, as affirmed in our final yield estimate above. That helped lift corn futures and the grain markets, though a weaker dollar, firmer fuel prices, and continued strength in export demand also aided the rally.
- December corn rose 5 cents to $5.08 ½, hitting a 2 ½ year high for the contract and notching a weekly gain of 25 ¼ cents.
- November soybeans rose 3 cents to $12.39 ½, up 47 cents on the week.
- September soft red winter wheat finished 1 ¼ cents higher at $6.81 ½, up 6 ¾ cents for the week. September HRW wheat fell 6 cents to $7.56 ¼, trimming its weekly gain to 2 cents. September spring wheat lost 2 ½ cents to $6.98 ¼, up20 cents on the week.
- December cotton rose 1 point to 88.35 cents, for a weekly jump of 355 points.
- October live cattle lost 7.5 cents to $217.925 after hitting an eight-month low following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a deal that would allow in tariff-free ground beef imports (see item below). September feeders rose 10 vets to $329.025. For the week, fat cattle fell 95 cents, while feeders dropped $5.475.
- October lean hogs rose 65 cents to $80.875 after hitting a 12-month low. The contract shed 88 ½ cents this week.
See After the Bell for a full rundown of this week’s price action.
Trump waives beef tariff: President Donald Trump on Friday said he would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported with no out-of-quota tariff for 90 days. “We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices,” Trump said in a social media post. Trump said the deal would “reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again.” A White House official said the deal is with foreign beef exporters who have agreed to the discount on beef, the Associated Press reported. Trump has been sensitive to high beef prices and has previously taken steps to boost beef imports.
The move was quick to receive pushback from cattle groups and some farm-state Republicans.
- “NCBA is disappointed by the President’s statement,” said National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall, in a statement. “While America’s cattle producers share the goal of keeping groceries affordable for consumers, flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd. Cattle markets have already turned sharply lower this morning, to the detriment of farmers and ranchers.”
“We all want lower grocery prices, but as I’ve said for months, we cannot do it at the expense of American producers,” Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., said in a statement, according to AP. “Flooding the market with foreign beef hurts our livestock industry and undermines the long-term solution: growing the U.S. cattle herd to meet demand.”
Lowest July cattle placements on record: USDA on Friday said the number of cattle on feed as of August 1 rose 2% from a year ago, while placements decreased by 11%. Inventory figures came in slightly below analyst expectations, while placements surprised to the downside. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.42 million head and the lowest for the month of July since data collection began in 1996, notes Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford. The next lowest number of placements on record was 1.55 million head in July 2015.
War slashes Black Sea grain exports: Ukraine reported 67 Russian attacks on port facilities in July, while strikes on ports in the Odesa region have removed around a third of Ukraine’s grain export capacity, according to S&P Global Energy CERA. Ukraine attacks on Russian export infrastructure and shipping routes have disrupted grain movements through the Black Sea and Azov Sea. CERA on Thursday estimated that 1.7 – 2.1 MMT of Russian grain exports scheduled for July-August were placed at risk, while Russian strikes put approximately 500,000 mt of Ukrainian wheat shipments scheduled for July-August at risk.
Early winter gasoline sales: The Trump administration is authorizing an early shift to the sale of wintertime gasoline blends to blunt fuel costs and supply concerns. The Environmental Protection Agency is relaxing normal summertime gasoline requirements, allowing the sale of gasoline blended with 10% ethanol. The administration says the move will boost the domestic gasoline supply and provide Americans more price relief at the pump, with the impact on fuel prices depending on how quickly states respond to the change in federal policy, Bloomberg reported. Starting Sept. 1, the waiver allows the sale of gasoline blended with 10% ethanol that evaporates faster than fuel typically sold during summer.